General
Manager: Dan O’Dowd
Minor
League Director: Paul Egins
Scouting
Director: Bill Schmidt
AAA:
Colorado Springs Sky Sox (Pacific Coast League) 64-80
AA:
Tulsa Drillers (Texas League) 68-72
Hi
A: Modesto Nuts (California League) 74-66
Low
A: Asheville Tourists (South Atlantic League) 69-70
Rookie
Adv.: Tri-City Dust Devils (Northwest League) 44-32
Rookie:
Casper Ghosts (Pioneer League) 27-49
Dominican:
DSL Rockies (Dominican Summer League) 43-28
System
Overview
During
the Rockies 19 years in existence the team has reached the playoffs
three times, including twice in the last five years, highlighted by
their 2007 season in which they swept both the Phillies and the
Diamondbacks before losing to the Boston Red Sox in the World Series.
Despite that, they’ve only had seven winning seasons in those 19
years, although three have come within the past five years. The
Rockies also have won two more games (over those 19 years) than the
two-time World Champions and expansion brethren Florida Marlins.
Their
20th season, though, looms as one of the most important in
the franchise’s history. The Rockies have gone from 92 wins in
their last playoff season, 2009, to 83 wins in 2010 to a
disappointing 73-89 mark last season.
GM
Dan O’Dowd has assembled a veteran cast of position players that
should do their part to bring the Rockies back into the NL West race.
SS Troy Tulowitzki and OF Carlos Gonzalez remain the faces of the
franchise, especially Tulowitzki, but CF Dexter Fowler has reportedly
spent the offseason getting stronger and could be primed for a
breakout year at age 26. Veterans such as IF Marcus Scutaro, OF
Michael Cuddyer, 3B Casey Blake and C Ramon Hernandez have been
brought in as short term solutions while top prospects develop at
their respective positions, while old reliable 1B Todd Helton keeps
on hitting and reaching base.
Just
as it has been for much of the past 19 years, the big question mark
will be the pitching staff. The Ubaldo Jimenez trade with Cleveland
(for LHP Drew Pomerenz and RHPs Alex White and Joe Gardner), the Seth
Smith trade with Oakland (for RHP Guillermo Moscoso and LHP Josh
Outman) and the Chris Iannetta trade with the Angels (for RHP Tyler
Chatwood) have given the Rockies a huge influx of talented young
pitching prospects, most of whom already have Major League
experience.
However,
who will actually be in the Rockies starting rotation will be
completely up in the air heading into spring training. 24-year old
Jhoulys Chacin, with his 20 wins and 53 big league starts, projects
as the Opening Day starter and staff ace. The bullpen has experience
for the most part, but the starting rotation could end up being the
youngest in the Major Leagues.
The
Rockies have perhaps the most stable and low key scouting operation
in Major League Baseball. They have had only two scouting directors
in their 20 year history, Pat Daugherty and Bill Schmidt, and have
six scouts on the free agent staff, including Daugherty, who have
been with the club since its inception. In addition, O’Dowd is one
of the longest tenured General Managers in the game, having taken
over the Rockies job in 1999.
The
trades at the Major League level and the prospects that have come
into the system through the draft and international signings have
arguably put the overall talent level top to bottom in the Rockies
system at its highest level ever. Still, the key to continued
stability in the organization could lie with reversing the two-year
slide at the big league level.
2011
Draft
Although
there have been a few exceptions, notably LHP Tyler Matzek in 2009
(see below), the Rockies have earned a well deserved reputation for
sticking very closely to the MLB recommended bonus guidelines and
they have rarely overpaid players for their slot, even in later
rounds. And while they will lean to the college player, the Rockies
will also not hesitate to draft high school talent in the first
couple of rounds if they feel confident they can sign the player.
The
2011 draft fell right in line with that established philosophy, with
an emphasis towards position players and perhaps just a bit more
towards high school prospects.
University
of Oregon LHP Tyler Anderson, whose stuff and overall package is not
dissimilar from 2002 Rockies first round pick Jeff Francis, was the
team’s initial pick at No. 20 overall and was signed at the
deadline for an in-slot $1.4M signing bonus. Anderson is a polished
pitcher with a long track record of success and should start his
career in low A ball this spring and could potentially move quickly
through the Rockies system.
Any
mention of “Rockies” and “first-round pitcher” should come
with a caveat, however. Since drafting former Rookie of the Year RHP
Jason Jennings in 1999, the Rockies have picked 10 pitchers in the
first and first round/compensation picks. Only Francis and 2011
rookie left handed reliever Rex Brothers have enjoyed any success at
the big league level.
First
round comp pick SS Trevor Story and second round OF Carl Thomore,
along with fourth round OF Dillon Thomas, all represent high school
athletes who have broad tool packages and above average athleticism.
Story has already opened eyes in the Rockies organization with his
unexpected power display (six home runs) after signing early, as he
was seen as a high level defensive shortstop whose fielding was ahead
of his hitting as an 18-year old.
Third
round pick C Peter O’Brien was one who got away for the Rockies.
O’Brien, a college catcher with big power and arm strength, was
considered a potential coup at that point in the draft, but the
Rockies were unable to sign him. It since has come out that the
situation was much more complicated than first known, as O’Brien
was recently granted a special waiver from the NCAA to transfer from
Bethune Cookman to Miami for his senior year for family health
reasons.
For
an organization with a very strong and acknowledged preference for
taking athletes who have football quarterback background (Todd
Helton, Seth Smith, Matt Holiday, Greg Reynolds, Kyle Parker, Russell
Wilson, etc.), the Rockies didn’t select a single player with an
obvious connection to the gridiron in 2011.
Top
10 Prospects
1.
3B Nolan Arenado -
Baseball-Reference player profile
Much
like Miami Marlins top prospect OF Christian Yelich, Arenado was an
occasionally overlooked member of the powerhouse ABD Bulldog teams of
2006-2008, taking second billing to All-American teammates such as 3B
Matt Davidson, SS Jio Mier, IF David Nick and 1B/RHP Brooks Pounders
just from the 2008 team. That has definitely changed since the
Rockies made Arenado their second round pick in the 2009 draft.
The
right handed hitter led all minor league players in RBI in 2011,
hitting .298-20-122/.836 OPS as a 20-year old in the Hi A California
League. He then stepped it up another notch, hitting .388-6-33/1.059
OPS in the Arizona Fall League, finishing third, third and second in
batting average, home runs and RBI, respectively.
Arenado
is an extremely mature young hitter who has an advanced ability to
recognize pitches and make swing adjustments. He rarely strikes out
(only 103 Ks in over 1200 professional plate appearances) and
consistently squares the ball up hard to all fields. There is no
reason that he shouldn’t continue to add both double and home run
power to his game as he gets older, especially in the context of
playing in Coors Field.
Despite
below average straight-line running speed, Arenado is also a plus
defensive player at third base, with a very quick first step, soft
hands and an above average throwing arm. Some scouts thought that
his best future position while in high school was behind the plate,
where his soft hands and raw arm strength, along with his baseball IQ
and makeup, would have really stood out. That was before Arenado’s
bat truly blossomed; imagine what his overall prospect status would
be if he was a 20-year old power hitting catcher?
2.
LHP Drew Pomeranz -
Baseball-Reference player profile
Pomeranz
was a classic projection lefty in high school. Going into his senior
year, he was 6-5/190 with a upper-80s fastball that he threw at a
sharp downward angle, a hard mid-70s slurve type curveball and a
decent change up. He starting adding some velocity leading up to the
draft and received some late draft interest but his strong commitment
to Ole Miss prevailed despite being picked in the 12th round by the Rangers.
That
development curve sped up over the next three years and Pomeranz was
one of the most dominant pitchers in the college game and was named
the SEC Pitcher of the Year in 2010 before being picked fifth overall
by the Cleveland Indians and signing for a $2.65M bonus. The Indians
traded him to the Rockies (he was actually a player to be named later
due to his 2010 signing date) as part of the blockbuster Ubaldo
Jimenez trade.
When
Pomeranz is at his best he’s sitting in the low-90s, touching 94-95
mph, and owns the bottom of the strike zone with a fastball that
combines big downhill angle and excellent late movement. He has
allowed only three home runs in 119 professional innings, something
that gives him extra value in the Rockies Coors Field environment.
His 12-to-6 downer knuckle curveball is a second plus pitch and is
Pomeranz’s primary strikeout pitch. The one steady worry about
Pomeranz dating back to his days at Ole Miss is that his delivery,
which features a short, hard front side, tends to be inconsistent,
leading to wide swings in velocity and command. He has proven to be
a first-class workhorse, however, and has never had a serious injury
problem.
Colorado
will be very tempted to start Pomeranz in their rotation at the
beginning of the year, especially since he threw well in four big
league starts last September.
3.
RHP Chad Bettis -
Baseball-Reference player profile
Bettis
was more of a shortstop in high school and looked the part with a
6-0/165 build. When he did take the mound, though, the results were
spectacular, as they were at the 2006 WWBA World Championships when
he came in from shortstop and started pumping 93 mph fastballs with a
sharp 80 mph slider.
Bettis
worked as a starter, long reliever and closer, all sometimes within
the same week, while at Texas Tech for three years and there were
plenty of opinions on what his best role would be as a professional
when the Rockies took him in the second round in 2010. The Rockies
immediately made him a starter and the decision looks like a wise
one. Now 6-1/190, Bettis was the California League Pitcher of the
Year in 2011, going 12-5, 3.34 with 184 strikeouts in 169 innings.
The durability that Bettis showed while pitching in a variety of
rolls in college has shown through in pro ball, as he’s able to
hold his mid-90s velocity late into games. Bettis’ second pitch
continues to be his slider, which is thrown in the mid-80s and has
uncommon size for a pitch with that power. The key to Bettis'
eventual ceiling will be his ability to fully develop a third pitch,
whether it is a softer breaking ball or an improved change up, to
complement his two power pitches.
4.
OF Tim Wheeler -
Baseball-Reference player profile
Wheeler
was the final pick (32nd overall) in the first round of
the 2009 draft out of Sacramento State and part of the haul that saw
the Rockies pick up LHP Tyler Matzek, Wheeler, big league LHP Rex
Brothers and top prospect 3B Nolan Arenado in the first 59 picks of
the draft.
After
a relatively slow start to his pro career (.715 and .723 OPS his
first two years), Wheeler exploded in AA in 2011, hitting .287-33-86,
22 steals/.900 OPS and finished second in minor league baseball in
home runs. The home run production surprised even his biggest
admirers within the organization.
The
6-4/205 left handed hitter has a very well rounded overall tool
package, with enough speed to tease scouts about his ability to play
centerfield and enough arm strength to play right field. He has
always been prone to strikeouts and is still working on hitting left
handed pitching better, but those aren’t areas that will keep him
from playing as long as the power production stays at a high level.
Wheeler gets high marks across the board for his make up and overall
instincts for the game.
5.
SS Josh Rutledge -
Baseball-Reference player profile
A
third round pick out of Alabama in 2010, Rutledge was hampered by a
wrist injury after signing that lingered through the early parts of
the 2011 season, but exploded over the second half of the season to
become of the best hitting middle infielders in minor league
baseball. He finished the season with a .348-9-71/.931 mark, very
impressive even for the offensively inclined California League.
With
All-Star SS Troy Tulowitzki signed through 2020 and looking at having
a Jeter-esque career with the Rockies, shortstop prospects such as
Rutledge and Trevor Story (below) are realistically looking at
diversifying their defensive skills as they move up the minor league
ladder. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Rutledge start gaining
experience at second base in 2012, with a Mark Ellis type career path
a distinct possibility.
6.
C Wilin Rosario -
Baseball-Reference player profile
The
Dominican born Rosario would possibly be the Rockies starting catcher
already if it weren't for a torn ACL in August, 2010, that slowed him
down at the start of the 2011 season. He is a classic power/power
player behind the plate, with a powerful throwing arm that
effectively cuts off opponent’s running games and big home run
power in his right handed bat. He showed those tools by hitting
three home runs in 54 at bats during his September call up and
throwing out five out of eight base runners stealing.
The
big challenge for Rosario to overcome before he can establish himself
as a full-time big league catcher is learning to control the strike
zone better. While his strikeout totals are manageable, he hardly
ever walks (21 in 456 at bats in 2011, 204 over 6 years of
professional baseball), and that is a quick recipe at the big-league
level for a low .200s batting average given Rosario’s track record,
something the Rockies might not be able to accept for too long.
7.
OF Kyle Parker -
Baseball-Reference player profile
Parker
essentially gave up $800,000 to play his final season at quarterback
at Clemson after the Rockies offered him a $2.2M signing bonus to
give up football altogether as the team’s first round pick in 2010.
Parker instead choose to sign for $1.4M and play one more year of
football.
Many
don’t remember that Parker left his Jacksonville, Fla. high school
a semester early to enroll at Clemson, ostensibly to go through
spring football practice and be better prepared to play as a freshman
in the fall. He unexpectedly not only cracked the starting lineup in
baseball, in what would have been his senior high school season, but
ended up leading Clemson in both home runs (14) RBI (50). He will
play all of 2012 as a “young” 22-year old in terms of baseball
experience.
Originally
a catcher, Parker has tried third base in the past but settled in as
a corner outfielder below average speed but above average arm
strength. His ticket to the big leagues is obviously his power, and
he hit .285-21-95/.850 OPS in his first season of pro ball. He could
easily surpass those numbers in 2012 now that he has had his first
whole year with only baseball as a priority.
8.
LHP Tyler Anderson -
Baseball-Reference player profile
Anderson
was an unheralded 50th round draft pick out of a Las Vegas
high school when he joined the new University of Oregon baseball
program in 2008. He went 2-9, 6.26 as the team’s Friday starter as
a freshman but improved in stuff and performance as much as any
pitcher in the country between then and the 2011 draft.
Anderson
doesn’t have a true plus-pitch, but has five very solid offerings
if you include his two-seam and four-seam pitches as separate
pitches, which they essentially are. He has outstanding command of
each pitch and a deceptive delivery that enables him to seem faster
to the hitters than to the radar gun. Anderson already has a feel
for pitching “pro style” as he works off his two fastballs and
can throw his change up for strikes confidently at any point in the
count.
9.
SS Trevor Story -
Baseball-Reference player profile
Story
was one of the fastest risers in the 2011 high school class leading
up to the June draft and many thought he had a chance to break into
the first round. The Rockies were able to nab him with the 45th overall pick and sign him for a very reasonable $915K bonus.
Story’s
credentials as a defensive shortstop and athlete are outstanding.
He's slender and graceful at 6-2/175 lbs and could play anywhere on
the baseball field if given the opportunity. Story is a 6.7 runner
in the 60 and his arm strength stands out as his best raw tool. He’s
thrown in the mid-90s off the mound before and that arm strength
translates well to shortstop.
The
cause for the big jump in Story’s prospect status over the last
year was an improved ability to shorten his swing and hit through
contact with some power and bat speed instead of hitting like the
prototypical shortstop. He hit .268-6-28/.799 in his pro debut in
the Pioneer League, a performance that scouts would have given him no
chance at achieving a year earlier.
Like
fellow shortstop prospect Josh Rutledge, Story has the reality of
Troy Tulowitzki in front of him. The Rockies have no reason to rush
Story up the ladder, but it’s worth noting that he did play 15
games at third base during his initial minor league season.
10. LHP Tyler Matzek - Baseball-Reference player profile
Based
on pure talent, Matzek belongs much higher on this list. The Rockies
first-round pick in 2009 (11th overall) and recipient of a
franchise record $3.9M signing bonus, Matzek has a power arm that can
generate steady mid-90s fastballs to go with a powerful curveball and
deceptive change up.
Matzek
also went through a well publicized mechanical meltdown last year
that saw him walk 96 hitters in 97 innings and take a controversial
two-week hiatus during the middle of the season to go home and work
with his high school pitching coach on getting old mechanics working
again. The fact that the Rockies worked with Matzek in such an
unconventional way was noteworthy in a positive way.
How
the talented young southpaw starts the 2012 season will be something
that prospect watchers everywhere, in addition to the entire Rockies
organization, should be watching carefully.
Others
in the Conversation: OF Charlie Blackmon, LHP Edwar Cabrera, OF
Rosell Herrera , IF D.J. LeMahieu, OF Kent Matthes, UT Jordan
Pacheco, RHP Zach Putnam, RHP Peter Tago