College : : Story
Thursday, May 12, 2011

PG 64: Projecting the NCAA field

Kendall Rogers        

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HAVE PROJECTIONS QUESTIONS? Ask Kendall Rogers here

PREMIUM ANALYSIS: Going inside the projections

Virginia was the top national seed in our postseason projections just a couple of weeks ago until South Carolina took over. Now, after the Gamecocks dropped a tough series to Mississippi last weekend, the Cavaliers are back in familiar territory as the top national seed and headliner in our field of 64.

The Cavaliers have a fabulous resume so far this season. They have an RPI of 1 and are 8-2 vs. RPI Top 25, 13-4 vs. RPI Top 50 and 22-4 vs. RPI Top 100. The Cavaliers finish the regular season with two huge series -- one at home against Miami and another on the road against national seed contender North Carolina.

Other national seeds this week include (in order), Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Oregon State, Texas, Florida, Arizona State and North Carolina. Other teams considered for national seeds include Georgia Tech, Florida State, Texas A&M and Southern Mississippi.

Vanderbilt has an RPI of 6 and is 10-5 vs. RPI Top 25, 16-5 vs. RPI Top 50 and 20-5 vs. RPI Top 100, South Carolina has an RPI of 7 and is 13-5 vs. RPI Top 25, 14-7 vs. RPI Top 50 and 23-8 vs. RPI Top 100, Oregon State has an RPI of 11 and is 6-0 vs. RPI Top 25, 15-6 vs. RPI Top 50 and 22-9 vs. RPI Top 100, Texas has an RPI of 13 and is 5-4 vs. RPI Top 25, 14-6 vs. RPI Top 50 and 28-11 vs. RPI Top 100, Florida has an RPI of 2 and is 10-9 vs. RPI Top 25, 20-11 vs. RPI Top 50 and 30-12 vs. RPI Top 100, Arizona State has an RPI of 4 and is 7-6 vs. RPI Top 25, 17-7 vs. RPI Top 50 and 24-8 vs. RPI Top 100 and North Carolina has an RPI of 3 and is 7-3 vs. RPI Top 25, 11-6 vs. RPI Top 50 and 30-10 vs. RPI Top 100.

In addition to the national seeds, other NCAA Regional hosts include Georgia Tech, Florida State, Southern Mississippi, Rice, Texas A&M, Cal State Fullerton, Stetson and TCU. Other programs considered for host sites include Miami, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Clemson, Fresno State and Arkansas.

PG's NCAA postseason projections are released every week leading up to Selection Monday, which is Monday, May 30.

C'VILLE REGIONAL
Host: Virginia
1. Virginia* (1)
4. Princeton*
2. Mississippi St.
3. East Tenn. St.
HATTIESBURG REGIONAL
Host: Southern Mississippi
1. Southern Miss*
4. Alcorn State*
2. Arkansas
3. SE Louisiana
NASHVILLE REGIONAL
Host: Vanderbilt
1. Vanderbilt* (2)
4. Austin Peay*
2. Troy
3. Connecticut*
FORT WORTH REGIONAL
Host: Texas Christian
1. TCU*
4. Creighton*

2. Clemson
3. Baylor
COLUMBIA REGIONAL
Host: South Carolina
1. South Carolina (3)
4. Wright State*
2. East Carolina
3. N.C. State
TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL
Host: Florida State
1. Florida State
4. Manhattan*
2. Alabama
3. Tulane
CORVALLIS REGIONAL
Host: Oregon State
1. Oregon State* (4)
4. Stony Brook*
2. Fresno State*
3. Kent State*
FULLERTON REGIONAL
Host: Cal State Fullerton
1. Cal State Fullerton*
4. Hawaii*
2. UCLA
3. Mississippi
AUSTIN REGIONAL
Host: Texas
1. Texas* (5)
4. Monmouth*
2. Arizona
3. Texas State*
HOUSTON REGIONAL
Host: Rice
1. Rice
4. Gonzaga*
2. Oklahoma
3. La.-Lafayette
GAINESVILLE REGIONAL
Host: Florida
1. Florida (6)
4. Bethune-Cookman*
2. Fla. International
3. Jacksonville
DeLAND REGIONAL
Host: Stetson
1. Stetson*
4. Michigan State*
2. Miami
3. Central Florida
TEMPE REGIONAL
Host: Arizona State
1. Arizona State (7)
4. South Dakota St.*
2. Georgia
3. UC Irvine
ATLANTA REGIONAL
Host: Georgia Tech
1. Georgia Tech
4. Old Dominion*
2. Stanford
3. Coastal Carolina*
CHAPEL HILL REGIONAL
Host: North Carolina
1. North Carolina (8)
4. Charlotte*
2. Oklahoma State
3. Elon*
COLLEGE STATION REGIONAL
Host: Texas A&M
1. Texas A&M
4. Navy*
2. California
3. Auburn
Last six: Louisiana-Lafayette, Central Florida, Tulane, N.C. State, East Tennessee State, Southeastern Louisiana
Next 10: Kansas State, LSU, Texas Tech, Sam Houston State, Florida Atlantic, Dallas Baptist, UAB, St. John's, College of Charleston, Western Kentucky

Projected national seeds in parentheses.
*—Projected winner of an automatic bid.
Possible super regional matchups are listed side-by-side
Stony Brook Charlotte
Virginia Stetson
Connecticut Coastal Carolina
Michigan State
Texas
Cal State Fullerton
Old Dominion
Southern Mississippi Wright State
Princeton
Manhattan
Kent State Bethune-Cookman
Creighton TCU
Monmouth
Austin Peay
Oregon State Navy
Vanderbilt Elon
Texas State
South Dakota State
Troy Alcorn State
Hawaii
Gonzaga
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