.2010 FOLLOW LIST
COMPILED by ALLAN SIMPSON
STATE OVERVIEW
Because of its somewhat remote location, tucked away in the Northwest corner of the country, Washington is rarely thought of as one of the nation’s best talent-producing states.
But Washington high schools are credited with producing 259 draft picks in the six-year period from 2004-09. That kind of production puts the state in elite company. Only California (1,661), Florida (1,000), Texas (889) and Georgia (380), all Sun-Belt states, can claim a distinct advantage. Overall, Washington ranks seventh among all states.
This year’s high-school crop isn’t especially deep, but quality replaces quantity as Washington boasts three players that have legitimate shots of being selected in the first 100 picks, including Bishop Blanchet High power-hitting outfielder Josh Sale, who has an excellent chance of being taken in the top half of the first round.
Central Kitsap High outfielder Drew Vettleson is a solid compensation-round consideration, while Highline High shortstop Ryan Brett is touch-and-go to crack the top 100.
After those three, the talent thins out noticeably.
But at least Washington should again produce a first-round pick, after the first player taken in the last two drafts wasn’t selected until the eighth round in 2008 and third round a year ago. For years, the state produced a steady stream of first-round and supplemental first-round choices, highlighted by the selection of the University of Washington’s Tim Lincecum in 2006.
Lincecum starred for three years with the Huskies on his way to winning the last two National League Cy Young awards. In Northwest circles, he remains symbolic of the recent failings of the Seattle Mariners as he was sitting there for the taking four years ago, when the Mariners had the fifth pick overall, and they inextricably passed on the highly publicized local product. They’ve rued the decision ever since.
With the scheduled 16th pick in this year’s draft, the Mariners might have had a fair crack at Sale, one of the elite power hitters available, but they surrendered the pick to the Los Angeles Angels as compensation for signing second baseman Chone Figgins in the off-season as a free agent.
After the Big Three of Sale, Vettleson and Brett, the second tier of Washington players in this draft includes the likes of Lower Columbia JC righthander Jeff Ames, Gonzaga outfielder Drew Heid and Centralia JC righthander Tyson Schmitt—all of whom were eligible for the 2009 draft, yet were either passed over (in the case of Heid and Schmitt) or a late-round afterthought (Ames, Phillies 45th-rounder).
In contrast to the 5-foot-9 Heid, the 6-foot-5 Ames and 6-7 Schmitt have obvious physical appeal, and also represent the cream of the crop in the Washington junior-college ranks.
Despite his low-round standing a year ago, Ames has actually been one of Washington’s more heavily scouted players over the last 3-4 years, before his above-average fastball deserted him as a high-school senior because of shoulder and elbow issues. But Ames has clearly made strides in restoring his superior velocity this spring on his way to becoming the No. 1 arm on the No. 1-ranked junior college team in the Northwest.
Schmitt, meanwhile, was a complete unknown at the start of the 2010 season, mainly because he didn’t even play baseball in 2009 as a first-year student at Centralia JC. Instead, he threw the javelin as a member of the school’s track and field team. But when he inadvertently discovered last fall that he could throw a baseball harder than any pitcher on the baseball team, he was encouraged to give the sport another shot after previously quitting baseball in high school. Almost overnight, Schmitt came out throwing in the mid-90s, and it wasn’t long before scouts caught wind of his act.
The 5-foot-9 Heid, meanwhile, has been a sensation the last two summers in the West Coast and Alaska leagues, winning batting titles with .400-plus averages. But his overall game has never clicked with local scouts, and consequently Heid has never been drafted, despite being eligible the last four years. Suddenly, as a college senior, he might be the first college player drafted in the state—which, on one hand is a credit to his steady play, but on another is an indictment of an unusually weak Washington college crop.
It’s possible that the state may not produce a single college pick in the top 10 rounds this year (Heid included), a disheartening development considering the strides the state’s Division I schools appeared to be making a year ago.
Gonzaga finished first overall in the West Coast Conference in 2009 for the first time ever, and made its first NCAA tournament appearance since 1981. But the Zags failed to capitalize on that momentum, limping in with a 20-36 record this year, though it did secure commitments from Sale and Brett—in the unlikely event that either or both end up in college. The inspired play of Heid was one of the team’s few bright spots this spring.
Similarly, a resurgent Washington State program, once the area’s most prominent baseball factory but a Pacific-10 Conference doormat in recent years, also made a foray into regional competition for the first time in 19 years in 2009. The Cougars have had another solid year, but a number of Cougars players who might have factored into the early rounds of this year’s draft didn’t made that next step.
Washington fell out of favor as a baseball presence in the state after the departure of Lincecum. But the Huskies made impressive strides in re-tooling their program with a new coaching staff in place for 2010, although first baseman Troy Scott, who was expected to be the state’s first college draft, was a major disappointment. It may be another year or two before Washington’s impact is felt. Baseball was even revived as an intercollegiate sport at Seattle University, where it had been dormant for years.
At least the 2011 draft holds out hope for the Washington college ranks. Despite a disappointing sophomore season by Gonzaga’s 6-foot-5 lefthander Ryan Carpenter (4-4, 5.67), there is still hope that he will go in the first round in 2011. WSU’s own lefthander, Adam Conley (5-2, 2.53, 11 SV), should be a solid early-round draft.
Washington’s best bet a year from now is actually a player eligible for this year’s draft, sophomore outfielder Caleb Brown. He is a highly athletic talent with early-round potential, but probably needs another year of development to refine his raw skills to potentially emerge as an elite talent.
For this year, the state will have to be content with its impressive collection of high-school players.
IN A NUTSHELL
STRENGTH: High-end high-school talent.
WEAKNESS: College talent.
OVERALL RATING (1-to-5 scale): 3.
BEST COLLEGE TEAM: Washington State.
BEST JUNIOR-COLLEGE TEAM: Lower Columbia.
BEST HIGH-SCHOOL TEAM: Kentwood HS, Kent.
PROSPECT ON THE RISE: Tyson Schmitt, rhp, Centralia JC. Former javelin thrower has evolved overnight into one of the state’s best pitching prospects.
PROSPECT ON THE DECLINE: Troy Scott, 1b, Washington. A big lefthanded-hitting power threat, Scott struggled all spring to delivery the long ball.
WILD CARD: Caleb Brown, of, Washington. The best athlete in this year’s Washington draft class, Brown is very raw in his development and might be better served with another year in college.
BEST OUT-OF-STATE PROSPECT, Washington Connection: Jake Peavey, rhp, Oregon State (Attended high school in Vancouver).
TOP 2011 PROSPECT: Ryan Carpenter, lhp, Gonzaga.
TOP 2012 PROSPECT: Travis Cook, rhp, Washington State.
HIGHEST DRAFT PICKS
Highest Pick, Draft History: Mike Lentz, lhp, Juanita HS, Kirkland (1975, Padres/1st round, 2nd pick).
Highest Pick, 2006 Draft: Tim Lincecum, rhp, U. of Washington (Giants/1st round, 10th pick).
Highest Pick, 2007 Draft: Clay Mortensen, rhp, Gonzaga U. (Cardinals/1st round, 36th pick).
Highest Pick, 2008 Draft: Christian Scholl, rhp, Green River CC (Angels/8th round).
Highest Pick, 2009 Draft: Kyrell Hudson, of, Evergreen HS, Vancouver (Phillies/3rd round).
BEST TOOLS
Best Hitter: Drew Heid, of, Gonzaga.
Best Power: Josh Sale, of, Bishop Blanchet HS, Seattle.
Best Speed: Ryan Brett, ss, Highline HS, Burien.
Best Defender: Trace Tam Sing, ss, Newport HS, Bellevue.
Best Velocity: Jeff Ames, rhp, Lower Columbia JC.
Best Breaking Stuff: Chad Arnold, rhp, Washington State.
TOP PROSPECTS
Full scouting reports available on players ranked on national Top 250 list (click on National Top 300)
GROUP ONE (Projected ELITE-Round Draft / Rounds 1-3)
1. JOSH SALE, of, Bishop Blanchet HS, Seattle National Top 250 (Rank 21)
Compact frame, impact LH power stroke, insatiable appetite for hitting; should be one of first bats drafted