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College  | Story | 5/17/2018

RAC Postseason Projection

Photo: Justin Lewis (UK Athletics)




Perfect Game Top 25
| Field of 64: May 10College Player Database

This week, we’ll take one final look at our predictions for the Regional Advisory Committees (RAC). In this look, we will only focus on teams and leagues that should affect at-large bids. For instance, Fullerton will not appear in the West ranking since the Big West is a one-bid league this year and the Titans are running away with the league title.

To create these rankings, we reached out to a multitude of coaches across the country to gather their feelings on the “eye ball test” for teams in their leagues and regions. The goal here was to reflect a consensus of those opinions as best we could.

Something important to remember: there are no perfect metrics. Just as the RPI has flaws, so does the concept of RAC rankings. These RAC rankings boil down to one coach’s opinion of another team. That is extremely subjective. That said, the compilation of all of these vastly different metrics gets us to a strong mix of observations on these teams. And the proof is in the Field of 64: in recent years, the Selection Committee has done an excellent job in putting the field together.

After each of the rankings, we will share an observation on that particular region.

• Conference names with an asterisk indicates the prediction of that being a one-bid league
The number in parenthesis for each team is the RPI as of Wed., May 16.


East
*America East, *MAAC, *Patriot, CAA, *Ivy, ACC, *Atlantic 10, *NEC

1. NC State (16)
2. Clemson (11)
3. Duke (15)
4. North Carolina (5)
5. Florida State (10)
6. Louisville (29)
7. Charleston (66)
8. Northeastern (41)
9. Miami (59)
10. Georgia Tech (54)
11. UNCW (83)

Observation: NC State, in a quest for a Top 8 Seed, and Louisville should be helped by a favorable RAC ranking. Both clubs garnered considerable and fairly unanimous praise from their peer coaches. North Carolina’s bid for a Top 8 Seed could be held back by a luke-warm RAC ranking.


Midwest
Big Ten, *Summit, *Horizon, *MAC, Missouri Valley, Big East

1. Minnesota (18)
2. Indiana (26)
3. Dallas Baptist (28)
4. Ohio State (31)
5. St. John’s (35)
6. Iowa (64)
7. Illinois (44)
8. Michigan (50)
9. Purdue (47)
10. Missouri State (42)

Observation: Minnesota will be the No. 1 ranked team in the Midwest Region and that should offset their RPI of 18 when the Top 16 Seed discussions take place. Look for the Gophers to host a Regional in 2018. Additionally, DBU’s RAC ranking will be a real wildcard here. Teams on the bubble absolutely need the Patriots to win the MVC tournament at their home park next week.


South
Southland, Big 12, *SWAC, C-USA, OVC, Sun Belt

1. Texas Tech (9)
2. Southern Miss (47)
3. Oklahoma State (22)
4. Texas (20)
5. Coastal Carolina (19)
6. Oklahoma (30)
7. Tennessee Tech (24)
8. Baylor (49)
9. TCU (63)
10. FAU (23)
11. Sam Houston State (58)
12. South Alabama (56)
13. Louisiana Tech (57)
14. Troy (40)
15. Louisiana (55)
16. West Virginia (45)
17. Little Rock (71)

Observation: TCU’s candidacy continues to be interesting. While their RPI of 63 is untenable, they should receive a fairly high RAC ranking. The strength of Southern Miss, the Sun Belt and also Tennessee Tech could hurt the Big 12’s chances to gain multiple hosts. Let the record show that the composition of this region is less than ideal. The large geographic footprint of both the Sun Belt and Conference USA made comparing these teams next to impossible. 


Southeast
*MEAC, A-Sun, AAC, Southern, SEC, *Big South

1. Florida (1)
2. Arkansas (3)
3. Ole Miss (8)
4. Georgia (4)
5. Kentucky (17)
6. East Carolina (13)
7. South Carolina (38)
8. Auburn (12)
9. USF (25)
10. Texas A&M (14)
11. Stetson (7)
12. LSU (46)
13. UCF (34)
14. Vanderbilt (36)
15. Houston (51)
16. Connecticut (23)
17. Missouri (32)
18. Mississippi State (33)
19. Jacksonville (21)
20. Wichita State (39)
21. UNCG (57)
22. FGCU (72)

Observation: Wow … this Region is college baseball’s version of the New York Times crossword puzzle. Kentucky’s hosting resume should be helped by their RAC ranking, assuming they win their series at Vanderbilt this weekend. Stetson’s bid for either a Top 8 or Top 16 Seed could be hindered by the large number of SEC teams likely to be ranked ahead of them. LSU is another team whose RAC ranking should boost a fairly pedestrian set of RPI metrics. It is a shame that UNCG ended up in this region as the Spartans may have earned a much higher RAC ranking in any of the other regions. And here is a great irony: the depth of AAC could hurt the SEC’s ability to earn 10 or 11 bids.


West
*WAC, *WCC, *Big West, Mountain West, Pac-12

1. Oregon State (2)
2. Stanford (6)
3. UCLA (37)
4. Arizona (43)
5. San Diego State (60)
6. California (78)
7. Washington (73)
8. Nevada (61)

Observation: The lack of teams on this list should help either Arizona or California or Washington. For instance, Arizona could be labeled the “fourth most talented team on the West Coast” and that narrative could be useful in offsetting a poor conference record.



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