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Tuesday, May 22, 2018

Field of 64: May 22

Mike Rooney        
 



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As we head into conference tournament week, the NCAA Tournament field feels like it’s getting more jumbled by the day. Here is an updated Field of 64 prediction/observation. As always, our focus will be on the 33 at-large bids and the 16 host sites.

Our format remains the same as before: the 31 automatic bids, followed by the 33 at-large bids, followed by the 16 host sites including the top 8 national seeds. There will also be a list of teams not selected.

The addition of an asterisk (*) by any conference name indicates that to be a one-bid league. This means that the winner of the conference tournament (or championship in the case of leagues without a tournament) will be the only team going to the NCAA Tournament.

Note: the number listed after each team is their RPI as of Sunday, May 20
BOLD teams have clinched the automatic bid for their conferences


31 Automatic Bids by Conference

*America East: Hartford (171)
AAC: Houston (48)
*A10: Saint Louis (108)
ACC: North Carolina (8)
ASUN: Stetson (7)

Big 12: Texas (15)
Big East: St. John’s (32)
*Big South: Campbell (118)
Big Ten: Minnesota (16)
*Big West: Cal State Fullerton (58)

CAA: Northeastern (34)
CUSA: Southern Miss (45)
*Horizon: Wright State (79)
*Ivy: Yale (174)
*MAAC: Monmouth (161)

*MAC: Kent State (72)
*MEAC: North Carolina A&T (216)
MVC: Missouri State (30)
MWC: Nevada (59)
*NEC: Wagner (71)

OVC: Tennessee Tech (21)
Pac 12: Stanford (2)
*Patriot: Army (94)
SEC: Florida (1)
Southern: UNCG (57)

Southland: Sam Houston State (51)
*SWAC: Texas Southern (220)
*Summit: Oral Roberts (149)
Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina (24)
*WCC: Pepperdine (91)
*WAC: Grand Canyon (116)

33 At-Large Bids

Safely In (21)
Georgia (3)
Arkansas (4)
Texas Tech (5)
Oregon State (7)
Ole Miss (9)

Florida State (10)
Clemson (11)
Auburn (12)
East Carolina (13)
NC State (14)

Duke (17)
Jacksonville (18)
Connecticut (19)
South Florida (22)
Louisville (27)

Oklahoma State (28)
Vanderbilt (29)
FAU (31)
UCLA (32)
South Carolina (34)
UCF (36)

Bubble In (12 spots available)
Kentucky (25)
Mississippi State (26)
Indiana (23)
DBU (37)
Ohio State (41)
Oklahoma (39)
Louisiana (54)
LSU (44)
Charleston (61)
Troy (43)
Washington (71)
Texas A&M (20)

First 6 Out

Baylor (42)
Arizona (47)
Illinois (50)
Missouri (38)
Louisiana Tech (58)
Purdue (40)

Bubble Tier 2

San Diego State (62)
Miami (63)
South Alabama (52)
Iowa (66)
Michigan (55)
Georgia Tech (46)
Wichita State (49)

Host Sites

Here are the 16 host sites (ranked in order per the new seeding rules) with the top 8 being the schools who would also host a Super Regional if they advance. These teams are matched up as per the Super Regional format.

1. Florida 16. NC State
2. Oregon State 15. East Carolina
3. Stanford 14. Texas
4. Georgia 13. Minnesota
5. Arkansas 12. Stetson
6. North Carolina     11. Auburn
7. Ole Miss 10. Clemson
8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech

 
Last Considered to Host

Connecticut
Coastal
Duke

Cheat Sheet

Here is a Cheat Sheet for this wonderful week of conference tournaments. Let the games begin!

At Large Bids start disappearing if:

• AAC: Someone other than Houston, ECU, USF, UCF, or Connecticut wins the tournament.
• ACC: Someone other than UNC, Clemson, NC State, Duke, FSU or Louisville wins the tournament.
• ASUN: Someone other than Stetson or Jacksonville wins the tournament.
• Big East: Someone other than St. John’s wins the tournament.
• C-USA: Someone other than Southern Miss or FAU wins the tournament – we’ll consider Louisiana Tech winning it a push.
• MVC: Someone other than Missouri State or DBU wins the Tournament.
• OVC: Someone other than Tennessee Tech wins the Tournament.
• Sun Belt: Someone other than Coastal Carolina or Troy wins the Tournament.

Things get interesting if:

• Southern: UNCG (57) doesn’t win that Tournament.
• CAA: Northeastern (35) doesn’t win that Tournament.

Expect fireworks at these venues:

• Big Ten: According the projection above, this eight-team tournament features one host, three bubble-in teams, one bubble-out team, and two bubble tier 2 teams. And it is being played at TD Ameritrade Park in Omaha.
• Big 12: According the projection above, this eight-team tournament features two hosts, one safely-in team, one bubble-in team, and one bubble-out team. And another team not mentioned that has been to the College World Series in four consecutive seasons … that would be TCU of course.
• SEC: There are 12 teams in this tournament with legitimate at-large resumes. The NCAA record for Regional teams from one conference in a single season is 10 (SEC in 2014, ACC in 2016). This is going to be a melee!



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