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College  | Story | 4/26/2018

Weekend Preview: Week 11

Patrick Ebert
Photo: Colin Simpson (Oklahoma State Athletics)




RAC vs. RPI | College Top 25 | Player/Pitcher of the Week | College Player Database
Quick Takes: Florida | Kentucky | College Notebooks: Stanford | Arizona


The schedule during the 11th weekend of the 2018 college baseball season doesn't offer as many series between ranked opponents as recent weeks have, but there are two very big series that include the Nos. 1 and 2 teams in the nation. The top-ranked Gators, who have yet to lose a weekend series this year, host a strong Auburn club that is coming off of a huge series sweep over Alabama as they continue to rebound from a rough three-week stretch that saw them lose to Kentucky, Missouri and Arkansas. And the projected Thursday night matchup of Casey Mize vs. Brady Singer is must-see TV.

No. 2 NC State hosts North Carolina in an in-state showdown between the Atlantic and Coastal Division leaders. Both squads currently have 15-6 records in conference, as the host Wolfpack have yet to lose a weekend series this year. However, North Carolina is trending upward as we take a deeper look at the Tar Heels' success below.

Each of the other Power 5 Conferences offers an intriguing matchup, even if both opponents aren't ranked. In the Pac-12 Stanford stays close to home despite traveling across the Bay to face California and their red-hot slugger, Andrew Vaughn. The Big 12 offers the Bedlam Series between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in what could be a classic shootout between these long-time successful programs (read more on this series below). Indiana faces a significant test as they host Illinois and Perfect Game's Midseason Player of the Year, Bren Spillane. And don't look past Houston at East Carolina in the American Athletic Conference, as the Cougars have a pair of lefthanded starters enjoying successful seasons in Trey Cumbie and Aaron Fletcher.

Stay tuned to Perfect Game over the weekend as Vinnie Cervino will be on hand to see VMI at Mercer and Wake Forest at Georgia Tech.


Top 25 in Action
Rk. Team Opponent Location
1 Florida home vs. No. 19 Auburn Gainesville, FL
2 NC State home vs. No. 18 North Carolina Raleigh, NC
3 Stanford home vs. California Stanford, CA
4 Texas Tech at Texas Christian Fort Worth, TX
5 Oregon State home vs. Arizona State Corvallis, OR
6 Ole Miss home vs. LSU Oxford, MS
7 East Carolina home vs. Houston Greenville, NC
8 Clemson at Virginia Charlottesville, VA
9 Arkansas home vs. Alabama Fayetteville, AR
10 UCLA at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, CA
11 Southern Miss at Old Dominion Norfolk, VA
12 Indiana home vs. Illinois Bloomington, IN
13 Vanderbilt home vs. South Carolina Nashville, TN
14 Kentucky home vs. Missouri Lexington, KY
15 Duke at Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA
16 Florida Atlantic home vs. UAB Boca Raton, FL
17 Florida State home vs. Miami Tallahassee, FL
18 North Carolina at No. 2 NC State Raleigh, NC
19 Auburn at No. 1 Florida Gainesville, FL
20 Texas A&M at Mississippi State Starkville, MS
21 Texas at West Virginia Morgantown, WV
22 Oklahoma at/away vs. Oklahoma State Stillwater/Tulsa OK
23 South Florida home vs. Memphis Tampa, FL
24 Coastal Carolina home vs. Louisiana-Monroe Conway, SC
25 Jacksonville home vs. NJIT Jacksonville, FL


Pure Bedlam

None of the three ranked Big 12 teams – No. 4 Texas Tech, No. 21 Texas or No. 22 Oklahoma – currently leads the conference. With a 12-3 mark in league play it is Oklahoma State that sits on top of the standings, one game ahead of the Longhorns and two games ahead of both the Red Raiders and Sooners.

The annual Bedlam Series takes place this weekend in both Stillwater and Tulsa, Oklahoma as the Cowboys and Sooners prepare to do battle. This is the third straight weekend in a row that Oklahoma has faced a stiff test in Big 12 play, losing to Texas and Texas Tech each of the last two weekends and needing to salvage their Sunday contests in both series to avoid being swept. At 28-15 they are still very much a competitive, well-balanced team with star power in both the every day lineup – as evidenced by outfielder Steele Walker, who is hitting .373-11-44 – and pitching staff – led by Friday ace Jake Irvin, who is 5-0 with a 2.87 ERA.

After a slow start (10-8-1) to the season, Oklahoma State has taken their game to another level with the beginning of conference play. While they did lose their series to Texas, in Austin, they have sweeps over TCU, Kansas State and Kansas and also won their series at West Virginia. Next weekend they play Iowa on the road and finish up the season against Baylor on the road and Texas Tech at home as they close out the regular season with a very challenging schedule.

Unlike the Sooners, the Cowboys don’t boast a lot of star power, as they don’t have gaudy performance numbers to point to as the reason for their success. They do have a good hero-by-committee team approach to the game of baseball, although Colin Simpson is one of the league’s better mashers as he is second in the conference with 12 home runs and leads OSU in hits (43), RBI (40) and total bases (89).

In addition to beating their in-state rivals with pride and so much more on the line, Oklahoma’s spot in the Top 25 could be in jeopardy. As the 22nd-ranked team a series loss almost assuredly would mean they get bumped from the rankings. However, a series win would get them back to their winning ways at the right time considering the most challenging part of their Big 12 schedule would be behind them (although they do travel to Orlando in mid May to play UCF).

A series win for Oklahoma State, especially a convincing one, could lock up a spot in Monday’s ranking update.

Tar Heels back on top

North Carolina entered the season with lofty expectations, and while they started off a little slow, it would seem as though they’re starting to live up to those preseason prognostications. Despite losing several key contributors from a year ago, and seeing their 2017 season finish in disappointing fashion – losing to Davidson in Chapel Hill in Regional play despite having a 49-14 overall record – the Tar Heels opened this year ranked seventh largely due to a very strong sophomore class.

While they opened the season with a hard fought series win over South Florida, who entered the Top 25 for the first first time this past week, they struggled for the most part over the first month of the season. By mid-March they had fallen out of the rankings, suffering series losses to then-unranked East Carolina and then-ranked Louisville, adding another series loss to Florida State after their rankings dismissal.

Since then North Carolina has gone 14-3 with home sweeps over Wake Forest and Georgia Tech and road series wins over Miami and Virginia, something they had not accomplished since 2008 and 2012, respectively.

The team’s sophomore class hasn’t been as dominant as initially expected, particularly among the pitchers, although first baseman Michael Busch is enjoying a strong, breakout season, hitting .325 with 10 home runs and 46 RBI. Junior third baseman Kyle Datres has also enjoyed a strong season at the plate as the two lead an offense that is collectively hitting .286 and is second in the ACC in runs scored behind NC State, their opponent this weekend.

Expected to be the team’s strength coming into the year, the pitching hasn’t been as strong, at least when it comes to their starting staff. Gianluca Dalatri was lost early in the season while 2015 PG All-Americans Tyler Baum and Austin Bergner have ERAs of 4.42 and 4.53, respectively. The bullpen, however, has been a bright spot as five different pitchers have made at least 16 appearances this year and all five of them have sub-3.00 ERAs.

Now 28-13, North Carolina is currently fourth in the nation in RPI and sit on top of the ACC Coastal Division with a 15-6 conference record, which is tied with Atlantic-leading NC State. The Wolfpack, who have been ranked the nation’s second-best team for three weeks now, have a very tough test ahead of them in Raleigh in what figures to be the weekend’s best matchup.

Gone streakin’

Two of the hottest teams in the nation will look to continue their impressive win streaks this weekend as Tennessee Tech and Michigan have reached 26 and 20 victories in a row, respectively. Tennessee Tech hosts Southeast Missouri while Michigan travels to Iowa City, Iowa to take on the Hawkeyes.

Michigan’s success was briefly broken down a week ago in the Week 10 preview as one of the nation’s more surprising conference leaders, and they continue to lead the Big Ten with a 11-0 mark in league play after their three-game sweep over Penn State. While winning 20 games in a row is no easy task, Iowa presents their toughest opponent, by far, during that stretch with the No. 47 RPI. Of the teams the Wolverines have beaten during their win streak, Maryland and Toledo (123 and 179) have the highest RPIs, and are the only two programs with a mark below 200. Despite losing to Minnesota last weekend, the Big Ten’s second-place team, Iowa has recent series wins over Illinois and Ohio State and split weather-shortened series against Indiana and Nebraska.

Tennessee Tech on the other hand has wins over four teams with RPIs less than 100, including their most recent win against Tennessee (72) as well as another against West Virginia (32). At 35-5, the Golden Eagles feel just short of forcing their way into the Top 25 and are the easy favorite to advance to the postseason from the Ohio Valley Conference, regardless if they win the OVC Tournament.

Looking at Tennessee Tech’s stats is a fun exercise, as they lead the nation, as a team, in almost every significant offensive category.  Their .358/.455/.645 triple slash line looks like an MVP season from Barry Bonds, and while Bonds never approached 95 home runs it’s a number that is 31 more than the second place team (Florida with 64).

No one in their regular starting lineup is batting below .300, five hitters have more than 10 home runs and two hitters have slugging percentage over .700. If you want to find a reason to not like their offense you could point to their 17 stolen bases, but with the firepower they possess risking outs on the basepaths wouldn’t seem to be a wise course of action anyway.

Naturally, the pitching isn’t as strong as the offense, and they’re going to have to continue to out-slug their opponents into the postseason. However, it’s a formula that has worked up to this point of the season, and with the 28th-best RPI in the nation after last weekend’s action they have even more gaudy numbers to support their case.
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