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College  | Story | 4/12/2018

Weekend Preview: Week 9

Patrick Ebert
Mike Rooney
Photo: Jack Labosky (Duke Athletics)




College Top 25 | Player/Pitcher of the Week | College Player Database

One interesting dynamic as we head into the ninth weekend of the 2018 college baseball season is the number of ranked teams playing at home. Seventeen of the Top 25 teams will enjoy home cooking this weekend, and four of the remaining eight teams are playing other ranked opponents.

The SEC continues to have an on and off feel to it, as just when you think one team starts to establish themselves as the conference's elite, at least behind No. 1 Florida, they suffer a series loss. It seems that each SEC club, again, outside of the Gators, has moved up this year just as quickly they have moved down, or vice versa, and this weekend could be especially important for a handful of those clubs including No. 21 Auburn, No. 22 LSU, No. 24 Missouri and No. 25 Georgia. Mizzou and Georgia have especially tough tests with the Tigers traveling to Gainesville to take on the nation's No. 1 team in the Swamps and the Bulldogs hosting ninth-ranked Kentucky.

Arguably the biggest series this weekend will take place in Tallahassee as Duke travels south to take on Florida State. The Seminoles will look to get back on track after losing their series a week ago at Georgia Tech, not to mention another mid-week contest to the Gators, while Duke hopes to continue their early season dominance in the ACC.

One of the more interesting series of the weekend will occur in Springfield, Mo. as No. 7 Oregon State travels to Missouri State. The two teams are currently trending in opposite directions as the Beavers have lost five of their last nine games while the Bears have yet to lose a weekend series this year.

Stay tuned to Perfect Game over the weekend as Jheremy Brown will be in Boston to see Griffin Roberts and Wake Forest face Boston College and Brian Sakowski will be in Ann Arbor for Maryland at Michigan.


Top 25 in Action
Rk. Team Opponent Location
1 Florida home vs. No. 24 Missouri Gainesville, FL
2 NC State home vs. Notre Dame Raleigh, NC
3 Stanford home vs. Arizona State Stanford, CA
4 Ole Miss at No. 15 Vanderbilt Nashville, TN
5 Texas Tech home vs. Kansas State Lubbock, TX
6 Arkansas home vs. South Carolina Fayetteville, AR
7 Oregon State at Missouri State Springfield, MO
8 Clemson home vs. Miami Clemson, SC
9 Kentucky at No. 25 Georgia Athens, GA
10 Duke at No. 12 Florida State Tallahassee, FL
11 Indiana home vs. Northwestern Bloomington, IN
12 Florida State home vs. No. 10 Duke Tallahassee, FL
13 Oklahoma home vs. Texas Norman, OK
14 Southern Miss at Florida International Miami, FL
15 Vanderbilt home vs. No. 4 Ole Miss Nashville, TN
16 East Carolina home vs. South Florida Greenville, NC
17 UCLA at Utah Salt Lake City, UT
18 Texas A&M home vs. Alabama College Station, TX
19 Florida Atlantic home vs. Texas-San Antonio Boca Raton, FL
20 North Carolina at Virginia Charlottesville, VA
21 Auburn home vs. Mississippi State Auburn, AL
22 Louisiana State home vs. Tennessee Baton Rouge, LA
23 Sam Houston State home vs. Stephen F. Austin Huntsville, TX
24 Missouri at No. 1 Florida Gainesville, FL
25 Georgia home vs. No. 9 Kentucky Athens, GA


Not-so-little Devils

If you haven’t noticed Duke currently is tied for the ACC Coastal Division lead with North Carolina, as those two teams, along with Clemson in the Atlantic, have the second-best league mark with a 10-5 record in conference play (NC State leads the Atlantic Division with an 11-4 record). Duke entered the year ranked 20th despite the fact that they didn’t make the postseason last year, and prior to 2016 the last time they appeared in the postseason came in 1961. That also was the last time they won the ACC Conference and was one of three years in program history they appeared in the College World Series.

You just had a sense coming into this season that head coach Chris Pollard could have a special team on his hands. Most of the team had returned from a year ago, as eight of the team’s regular position players were back to help Duke accomplish what they failed to do last season: make the postseason.

Interestingly enough not all eight of those players are hitting nearly as well as they did a year ago. Jimmy Herron is batting below .300 (.295) and hasn’t shown the same kind of power he did a year ago. Griffin Conine may have the power, with 15 extra-base hits that includes seven homers and 24 RBI, but he’s only batting .228. Senior two-way contributor Jack Labosky is hitting .214, while Kennie Taylor also has seen a dramatic decrease in individual production.

However, the team production has been just fine for this opportunistic offense, as they currently rank 31st in the nation in runs scored despite their .265 team batting average. The do get on base at a good clip (.380 OBP) and their 58 stolen bases (in just 67 attempts) is second in the ACC to only Louisville.

Having so many returning players has especially helped their team defense, as this is where the position players stand out the most with a .980 team fielding percentage, which is tops in conference and 17th-best in the nation.

Looking further at the team’s pitching, none of the three weekend starters has particularly impressive numbers, as Adam Laskey, Mitch Stallings and Ryan Day are a combined 9-6 with ERAs ranging from 4.17 to 4.91. However, the bullpen has been especially stingy, led by Labosky who has settled in nicely as the team’s closer (six saves) and has yet to give up a run in 11 relief appearances spanning 15 innings. Ethan DeCaster is usually asked to go more than one customary inning in relief, as he has allowed just one earned run and has compiled four saves in 12 relief outings spanning 26 innings.

Matt Dockman, Bill Chillari, Graeme Stinson and Bryce Jarvis all have 10 or more appearances this year and none of them have an ERA above 2.62. A third reliever, Matt Mervis, has a 3.74 ERA and leads the team in appearances with 16. In fact, the bullpen has yet to be saddled with a loss, keeping Duke in ballgames to allow their especially expedient offense more opportunities to win ballgames.

Duke opened the year with a tough assignment, playing Vanderbilt in Nashville, a series they ended up losing. They also lost their most recent series against Wake Forest, in Winston-Salem. In between those two series the team went 25-3, with series wins over Virginia, Miami, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame. This weekend they face their biggest test of the year as they head to Tallahassee to take on the 12th-ranked Seminoles, the team that ended Duke’s season a year ago in the ACC Tournament.

It’s a particularly tough seven-game stretch overall, as they return home to play East Carolina next Tuesday and then stay at home with NC State coming to town. How they fare during that time could not only have a significant affect on their chances to host a Regional, but also how their season is viewed by the court of public opinion.

Hoosiers continue to roll

The culture has certainly changed in Bloomington as Indiana is facing the possibility of hosting a Regional for the third time in six years (2013, 2014) which includes the season they reached the College World Series in 2013. They have only missed the postseason once during that stretch in 2016, and with a current 23-6 record it would seem to be a lock that they’re playing meaningful baseball into the month of June once again this year.

Similar to Duke, Indiana opened the 2018 season ranked in the Top 25, not so much for what they did a year ago – unlike Duke, Indiana did make an appearance in the NCAA postseason – but for the number of talented players they had returning to the team in addition to the number of young players on their roster that were poised for significantly better seasons.

Again, like Duke, this was especially evident in the team’s projected starting lineup, and while that unit is slashing .289/.382/.450 as a team, it is the pitching staff that has been the most impressive.

The Hoosier arms have a 2.47 cumulative ERA, which is third best in the nation and just ahead of teams with more well known staffs, including Stanford and UCLA. The trio of Matt Lloyd, B.J. Sabol and Cal Krueger has combined for six saves out of the bullpen while allowing just three earned runs in 27 combined bullpen appearances. Pauly Milto is enjoying a big year as the team’s Saturday starter, with a 5-2 record and a 1.91 ERA, while Friday starter Jonathan Stiever (3-1, 3.16) has the low- to mid-90s stuff you look for from a staff ace.

On offense the team’s leadoff hitter, junior college transfer Logan Kaletha, has provided numerous dramatic hits over the course of the first half of the season, most recently hitting a walkoff two-run home run in extra innings against Purdue to claim the series. Kaletha can beat you in a variety of ways, as he has speed (seven stolen bases), power (15 extra-base hits) and a knack for getting on base (17 bases on balls and 13 hit by pitch), setting the tone for the rest of the lineup.

While Indiana hosts a struggling Northwestern squad this weekend, they will finish the year with several challenging series, as they will be on the road against Ohio State, Minnesota and Nebraska while playing at home against Illinois and Maryland. They also have midweek contests against Kentucky and Louisville, a five-week stretch that begins a week from now that will ultimately dictate whether or not the Hoosiers host a Regional or simply play in one.

– Patrick Ebert


RPI Time

We’re past the halfway point of the college baseball season which means it’s time to start talking RPI. Let’s begin with some clarity around improving one’s RPI and then we’ll use the 2017 tournament for perspective.

There are three best practices for improving one’s RPI: win games, preferably on the road, and have those contests be against teams with winning records. Remember, a home win is worth 0.7 of a win whereas a road victory earns the equivalency of 1.3 wins. Make no mistake though, winning games is the most important thing.

Now let’s put the concept of RPI numbers in some perspective. Here are four of the teams who just missed earning an at-large bid in 2017: Connecticut (RPI No. 38), Miami (RPI 41), Gonzaga (RPI 49) and Old Dominion (RPI 50). Keep in mind that last year was an exceptional year in that we had an abundance of upsets in conference tourneys, and that shrank the bubble considerably.

So, it took an RPI in the low-30 to be safely in.

Now let’s look at several 2018 RPIs that look a little peculiar.

ACC (No. 2 RPI Conference)

Many pundits, including yours truly, feel that this is a “down” year in the ACC. This is mostly because of the lack of an elite team. That said, maybe NC State, despite their lack of a dominant Friday night starter, is that caliber of team after all. Here’s the point: the ACC sports seven teams with RPIs of 41 or better. There will be plenty of bids to go around after all.

Auburn (No. 11 RPI)

That is a hosting-caliber RPI, which should come as no surprise since Auburn is an older team with arguably the best college arm in the land (Casey Mize). Here’s the hold up: the Tigers are the last place team in the SEC right now. As in tied for 13th place. Auburn certainly isn’t on pace to host right now but that level of RPI is a lock for an at-large bid. Especially since they play in the No. 1 RPI conference. It’s good to be the king.

Northeastern (No. 13 RPI)

Mike Glavine’s Huskies are 18-10 despite playing just five home games so far. That’s hard to do. Northeastern has also put together a nearly perfect RPI schedule, a la the 2015 Bradley Braves who finished the regular season with the No. 19 RPI. Here are a few examples of those RPI darlings on Northeastern’s 2018 schedule: No. 21 Creighton, No. 24 Missouri, No. 80 Holy Cross, at No. 3 Texas Tech, at No. 11 Auburn.

While there are some RPI busting games left on their schedule, this weekend’s road tilt versus 25-9 College of Charleston is another great opportunity. With 23 remaining games, I like the Huskies’ chances.

Cal State Fullerton (No. 72 RPI)

The Titans have been to a miraculous 26 straight Regionals. The good news for this club is that they have won six in a row. The bad news is that the Big West has endured an uncharacteristically poor year, with a .488 non-conference winning percentage that is the cause of the league’s current No. 14 (out of 31) ranking according to RPI.

According to the Boyd’s World “Needs Report,” the Titans will need to win 20 of their final 25 games just to finish in the top 45 of RPIs. Upcoming road series versus San Diego State, UC Irvine and Long Beach State will be of critical importance if Fullerton is going to pull this off.

TCU (No. 78 RPI)

The Horned Frogs have endured a choppy season. Home series losses to Minnesota and Oklahoma combined with a road sweep at the hands of Oklahoma State certainly have led to raised eyebrows. Yet this team has the talent to not only advance to Omaha for a fifth straight season but is good enough to win it all. Here’s the problem: according to the Boyd’s World “Needs Report” TCU will need to win at least 19 of its remaining 24 games to finish with a Top 32 RPI. I suppose the good news is that if they pull it off they’ll be hot as a pistol entering the postseason.

– Mike Rooney


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