Just like college seniors in the NBA draft, college seniors in the baseball draft are not a popular commodity. Since 2000, only seven such players have been selected in the first round of baseball’s first-year player draft, including Georgia closer Josh Fields a year ago.
That number is not expected to change in this draft as there is not an elite prospect who has continued to slip through the draft to a point where a high demand remains for his services as a college senior.
That’s not to say there isn’t talent in this year’s senior class. While San Diego State junior righthander Stephen Strasburg has thoroughly dominated the NCAA Division I pitching ranks, seniors occupy the top spot in almost every prominent offensive category at the mid-point of the 2009 college season.
PG Crosschecker is taking a mid-season look this week at the top players in each college class, and our focus today is on the senior class. We looked at the top freshmen on Tuesday, the top sophomores on Wednesday and the top juniors on Thursday. Our primary consideration is simply identifying those players at each position that are performing the best to this point of the college season.
We’ve also identified, on the accompanying list, the top 10 performers overall in this year’s seniors class. Additionally, we’ve updated our take on the top 10 prospects in the senior class.
The lists are heavily sprinkled with players who reside atop the NCAA statistical leader board, especially on the offensive side. The nation’s top home-run hitter? Alabama senior outfielder Kent Matthes. The leader in slugging percentage? Eastern Illinois senior outfielder Brett Nommensen, just ahead of Matthes. The leader in hits and triples? New Mexico senior second baseman Mike Brownstein. Stolen bases? None other than Alabama-Birmingham senior outfielder Brint Hardy.
Moreover, seniors occupy the top two places in batting average, including Nommensen at No. 2. Nommensen is also tops in on-base percentage, while Matthes is setting the pace nationally in total bases.
As dominant as those players have been this season as seniors, none has ever been drafted. That will all change in June, but it’s fair to say that none will go in the first round—or maybe even close to that round, unless a budget-minded team sees one of the seniors as an opportunity to save money in the early rounds by paying out a below-slot bonus, especially in a tough economy. Typically, college seniors are the one demographic in any draft that doesn’t have the leverage to command fair market value in negotiating a signing bonus.
Still, Matthes and Nommensen, in particular, have clearly improved their stock with breakout senior seasons at the plate. Through mid-April, Matthes, a strong-armed right fielder, was hitting .394-20-56, while Nommensen, a speedy center fielder with excellent base-running and defensive instincts, was at .511-11-26 with a walk-to-strikeout ratio of 22-5.
More likely than not, the first pick in this year’s senior class will be a pitcher, with Louisiana State righthander Louis Coleman and Mississippi righty Scott Bittle given the best shot to go off the board first. Bittle is a logical choice as he was an unsigned second-round pick of the New York Yankees a year ago, while Coleman was taken in the 14th round by the Washington Nationals.
Both pitchers worked almost exclusively in relief for their respective schools as juniors, and were extremely effective in those roles. The game plan entering 2009 was for both pitchers to be used again as closers, but Coleman was soon moved into the LSU rotation and Bittle eventually followed at Ole Miss.
When the two schools met in a key Southeastern Conference series in late March, Coleman and Bittle missed by a day of hooking up against one another. They were both relegated to second-line status as LSU righthander Anthony Ranaudo and Ole Miss lefthander Drew Pomeranz, two of the elite arms in the 2010 draft class, were matched against each other in the series opener.
Neither pitcher was overly impressive in a 7-4 Mississippi win, and were upstaged over the next two days by the two seniors—first by Coleman, and then by Bittle. Both pitchers worked seven innings and struck out 10, with Coleman picking up a win to even the series 1-1 and Bittle getting a no-decision when he was lifted in the rubber game with a 1-0 lead, only to see LSU score twice in the eighth to pull out a 2-1 victory. In his seven innings of work, Bittle allowed one hit and two walks and effectively silenced LSU, the nation’s No. 1 team. He has continued to dominate in a starting role.
Bittle went 7-1, 1.78 with eight saves a year ago, while posting nine-inning averages of 4.4 hits allowed and 16.5 strikeouts—both totals ranking in the top two nationally. As dominant as he was in a closing role, Bittle was passed over in the first round and went unsigned altogether after the Yankees weren’t comfortable with medical reports on his shoulder. Bittle has a dominant cut fastball to accompany a more conventional, low-90s four-seamer, and is unlike most closers in that he can work several innings at a time.
With this year’s draft less than two months away, it remains to be seen how teams will view Bittle, not to mention all the other seniors in this year’s class.
Here’s our take on the Top 10 players overall in the senior class at the mid-season point of the 2009 season: