Baseball scouting will never be a perfect science, but it has improved by leaps and bounds over the last generation with modern technological advances and the proliferation of showcase events and national tournaments. Just the amount of money that teams are spending on early-round draft picks these days has also put an onus on scouts to be more diligent than ever in the way they pursue talent.

While it wasn’t uncommon in the first few years of the draft for rising first-round picks to be virtual unknowns to the scouting community entering their draft year, or for teams to draft players in the early rounds (even in the first round) that they had limited scouting profiles on, it is rare these days for a player with first-round aspirations to fall through the cracks.

But there are always exceptions, and this year’s exception may be University of Kentucky lefthander James Paxton. Prior to this season, the 6-foot-4, 215-pound Paxton was viewed as a third- to sixth-round talent, but he has been such a sensation in the early going for the Wildcats, posting a 3-0 record with three walks and 37 strikeouts in 26 innings, that he has already vaulted into first-round consideration. In his most recent start against pre-season No. 1-ranked Louisiana State, one of the nation’s best hitting teams, he went six innings and struck out 14.

Of more relevance to scouts, Paxton’s fastball was a steady 95-96 mph, touching 97, and he not only had good sinking action on the pitch from a tough, low-three-quarters angle, but he painted it to both sides of the plate. A revamped grip on his breaking ball, a cross between a slider and curve, has given him a second quality pitch. Without question, he’s the player who has created the most buzz among scouts this spring.

It’s all pretty heady stuff for a pitcher from Canada, who was lightly recruited and went undrafted out of a suburban Vancouver high school in 2006, and was not on many preferred lists of top prospects for this year’s draft. But Paxton has always been a bit behind on the normal development curve, and only now seems to be catching up.

Not only did he grow up in British Columbia, which put him at a disadvantage to begin with because there is not a formal high-school baseball program in the province, but he was behind in almost every other way. When he enrolled at Kentucky, he was three inches shorter than his current listed height, he was one of the youngest freshmen in the college ranks (he won’t turn 21 until November) and his fastball was only in the 84-86 mph range. Not surprisingly, he was little factor as a freshman in the SEC, posting a 6.62 ERA with 16 walks and just 10 strikeouts in 18 innings.

Though he bumped up his fastball into the 88-90 mph range as a sophomore at Kentucky and produced a 4-2, 2.92 record, scouts got limited looks at Paxton at the most critical stages of the 2008 season after an unexplainable lower-back injury sidelined him for all of post-season play at Kentucky, and significantly compromised his summer season with the Alaska League’s Anchorage Glacier Pilots. He worked in only 16 innings in Alaska before returning home to consult with a back specialist. Though he appeared healthy again last fall, he was brought along slowly by the Wildcats coaching staff.

So there was little of substance on his resume to indicate that Paxton would make a major breakthrough this season, but it became apparent immediately to Kentucky coach Gary Henderson that Paxton had taken his game to another level.

“You could tell his first time out that there was something different,” Henderson said. “Not only was his fastball up to 95 or 96, but he had a long, loose, easy arm action. He was in better shape than he’s ever been before, and consequently he had greater control of his body on the mound.

“James has always been a year ahead in school academically from what his body was ready for because he was so young. It’s just taken him time to catch up. But his intelligence, aptitude and work ethic are all outstanding, and it was just a matter of time before everything came together. You can measure his improvement over the last three years by the progression in the velocity on his fastball, from 84-86 when we recruited him, to 86-88 as a freshman, to 88-90 as a sophomore and now to the mid 90s.”

Henderson, who took over as Kentucky’s head coach this season, was the Wildcats recruiting coordinator three years ago and is directly responsible for Paxton taking a somewhat circuitous route from western Canada and winding up at Kentucky. Henderson has liberally tapped into his Canadian and Pacific Northwest connections going back to his days as the recruiting coordinator at Oregon State, and it wasn’t by accident that he came across Paxton.

“It’s all about the relationships that you build,” Henderson said. “When I was at Oregon State, I was the only coach this side of the border who knew about and recruited (Canadian lefthander) Jeff Francis. Even though I couldn’t get him to Oregon State and he ended up going to the University of British Columbia (and later became a first-round pick of the Colorado Rockies), I continued to stay in touch with Jeff’s summer-ball coach. Paxton later played for the same team, and I didn’t hesitate to take James when his summer coach called and said, ‘I’ve got another one for you.’ “

Three years later, Paxton may the latest in a long line of players in the draft’s intriguing but unpredictable history to emerge almost overnight to become a premium pick.