College | Story | 4/6/2011

PG's NCAA postseason projections

Kendall Rogers        

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Going inside the projections, our in-depth analysis

Virginia was devastated last June when it was in the driver's seat to reach the College World Series and was derailed at home by Oklahoma in the Charlottesville Super Regional.

Barring a surprise the second half of the season, the Cavaliers should again be in the driver's seat to Omaha with a fantastic resume that warrants the top national seed in our first regular season NCAA postseason projections.

The Cavaliers lead the ACC and have a 29-2 overall record. More importantly, the Cavaliers are 8-2 vs. RPI Top 25, 11-2 vs. RPI Top 50 and an impressive 13-2 vs. RPI Top 100.

Other national seeds in the projections include South Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida, Southern Mississippi, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Fresno State.

The Gamecocks headline the SEC and are 23-5. They are 6-3 vs. RPI Top 25, 8-4 vs. RPI Top 50 and 11-5 vs. RPI Top 100, Georgia Tech is 1-0 vs. RPI Top 25, 12-2 vs. RPI Top 50 and 19-5 vs. RPI Top 100, Florida is 5-4 vs. RPI Top 25, 8-4 vs. RPI Top 50 and 15-5 vs. RPI Top 100, Southern Miss is 2-2 vs. RPI Top 25, 8-3 vs. RPI Top 50 and 15-4 vs. RPI Top 100, Vanderbilt is 5-1 vs. RPI Top 25, 9-3 vs. RPI Top 50 and 11-3 vs. RPI Top 100, Texas A&M is 3-2 vs. RPI Top 25, 8-4 vs. RPI Top 50 and 14-6 vs. RPI Top 100 and Fresno State is 7-0 vs. RPI Top 50 and 13-1 vs. RPI Top 100.

North Carolina and Florida State were other considerations for national seeds.

The other NCAA Regional hosts include North Carolina, Stanford, Florida State, Cal State Fullerton, Texas, Oklahoma, Oregon State and Rice. As mentioned, the Tar Heels and Seminoles are closest to national seeds. The Tar Heels are 4-0 vs. RPI Top 25, 5-0 vs. RPI Top 50 and 16-3 vs. RPI Top 100, while the Seminoles are 5-4 vs. RPI Top 25, 8-6 vs. RPI Top 50 and 13-7 vs. RPI Top 100.

The last five teams in the projections are Auburn, Arkansas, Georgia Southern, N.C. State and Western Kentucky.

The last five teams out of the projections are Southeastern Louisiana, East Tennessee State, Florida International, College of Charleston and Louisiana-Lafayette.

PG's NCAA Postseason Projections
C'Ville Regional
1. Virginia* (1)
4. Monmouth*

2. Mississippi St.
3. Connecticut*
Corvallis Regional
1. Oregon State
4. Kent State*

2. Gonzaga*
3. Auburn
Columbia Regional
1. South Carolina* (2)
4. Army*

2. Miami
3. Elon*
Norman Regional
1. Oklahoma
4. Wichita St.*

2. TCU*
3. Arkansas
Atlanta Regional
1. Georgia Tech (3)
4. Wright State*

2. Mississippi
3. Georgia So.
Fullerton Regional
1. CS Fullerton*
4. Stony Brook*

2. California*
3. Texas Tech
Gainesville Regional
1. Florida (4)
4. Bethune-Cookman*

2. Stetson*
3. Clemson
Chapel Hill Regional
1. North Carolina
4. Charlotte*

2. East Carolina
3. Western Kentucky
Hattiesburg Regional
1. Southern Miss* (5)
4. Southern*

2. LSU
3. Samford
Tallahassee Regional
1. Florida State
4. Jacksonville State*

2. Troy*
3. Georgia
Nashville Regional
1. Vanderbilt (6)
4. Manhattan*

2. UCF
3. Louisville
Austin Regional
1. Texas
4. Minnesota*

2. Texas State*
3. North Carolina State
College Station Regional
1. Texas A&M* (7)
4. Oral Roberts*

2. Alabama
3. Houston
Houston Regional
1. Rice
4. Coastal Carolina*

2. Baylor
3. Arizona
Fresno Regional
1. Fresno State* (8)
4. Princeton*

2. Long Beach St.
3. CS Bakersfield
Stanford Regional
1. Stanford
4. James Madison*

2. Oklahoma State
3. UC Irvine

Automatic Bids (30)
Automatic bids noted by * in projections table

America East: Stony Brook
Atlantic 10: Charlotte
Atlantic Coast: Virginia
Atlantic Sun: Stetson
Big Ten: Minnesota
Big 12: Texas A&M
Big East: Connecticut
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Big West: Cal State Fullerton
Colonial: James Madison
Conference USA: Southern Mississippi
Horizon: Wright State
Ivy League: Princeton
Metro Atlantic: Manhattan
Mid-American: Kent State
Mid-Eastern Athletic: Bethune-Cookman
Missouri Valley: Wichita State
Mountain West: TCU
Northeast: Monmouth
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Pacific 10: California
Patriot: Army
SEC: South Carolina
Southern: Elon
Southland: Texas State
Southwestern Athletic: Southern
Summit: Oral Roberts
Sun Belt: Troy
West Coast: Gonzaga
Western Athletic: Fresno State

Kendall Rogers is the college baseball managing editor for Perfect Game USA and has covered the sport for over 10 seasons. He can be reached at kendall@perfectgame.org

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