Draft Overview: Class of 2013

Allan Simpson

DRAFT OVERVIEW
Class of 2013

Pair of First-Rounders Highlight
2013 Class, Just Like This Year

Major-league teams set a record for bonus money spent (almost $200 million) on drafted players for the third year in a row in 2010. But no matter how much they keep spending, it never seems to be quite enough to sign all the elite high-school talent.

For the second straight draft, two first-round selections from the prep ranks went unsigned. The San Diego Padres failed to come to terms with righthander Karsten Whitson (ninth pick overall), now a freshman at the University of Florida; the Milwaukee Brewers couldn’t find common ground with righthander Dylan Covey (14^th overall), now at the University of San Diego.

The two pitchers are ineligible to be drafted again until 2013, and predictably rank 1-2 on PG CrossChecker’s list of the Top 200 Prospects in the Draft Class of 2013. The list is composed of college freshmen and high-school sophomores.

The decisions by Whitson and Covey to turn down ever-increasing bonus offers to first-rounders is hardly a novel concept as it happened a combined three times in the 2008 and 2009 drafts. Coincidentally, the top-rated college pitchers in this year’s draft, UCLA junior righthander Gerrit Cole and Texas Christian lefthander Matt Purke, are former unsigned first-rounders. Cole turned down an offer from the New York Yankees as the 28^th overall pick in the 2008 draft, while Purke chose college over the Texas Rangers after being selected with the 14^th pick in 2009.

The 6-foot-4, 215-pound Whitson is certain to draw a lot of scrutiny this spring as Florida begins the 2011 season as the nation’s No. 1-ranked college team. For all his obvious ability, Whitson may have to wait his turn to showcase his talent as the Gators are scheduled to open the season with a three-man rotation that includes two sophomores, lefthander Brian Johnson and righthander Hudson Randall, and a junior, lefthander Alex Panteliodis. Whitson, though, will be given every opportunity to crack the rotation by the start of the Southeastern Conference schedule.

Whitson is a tall, projectable pitcher with top-of-the-rotation potential. At 92-94 mph, touching 95, he had the best fastball on the Florida staff in the fall. His low-80s slider was also one of the better breaking balls in the 2010 draft class, and his changeup continues to evolve into a solid third pitch. Whitson, though, has a very mature approach to pitching and can often dominate primarily with his fastball and working to locations. He gets very good sinking action on the pitch down in the zone.

Covey had every intention of signing with the Brewers last summer, but it was discovered shortly before the Aug. 16 signing deadline that he had Type 1 diabetes. He and his family subsequently determined that the best course of action to manage his illness would be to attend college at USD, and he has since regained about half of the 35 pounds he reportedly lost as a high-school senior.

Though he has rarely flashed the 97-mph velocity that he did in the fall of his senior year at the World Wood Bat Association fall championship in Jupiter, Fla. Covey still has the best stuff on the USD staff and will be used as the team’s Friday or Saturday starter this spring. His fastball has been consistently in the low 90s, and he continues to refine his curve and changeup.

The unexpected appearance of Whitson and Covey in this year’s college freshman crop gives the 2013 draft class a decided college flavor. In fact, the third- and fourth-ranked players in the class, outfielder Austin Wilson and righthander A.J. Vanegas, both currently attending Stanford, would almost certainly have been first-round picks, as well, last June, had they given a clearer indication that they were signable.

Wilson slipped to the 12^th round, where he was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals, while Vanegas was claimed in the seventh round by the Padres. In all, 26 players drafted in the first 10 rounds last June went unsigned.

Among 103 college freshmen on the accompanying list of 200 prospects, all but 13 were drafted out of high school. Among those that went undrafted are three players (Oregon lefthander/first baseman Porter Clayton; Oregon State shortstop Kavin Keyes and Florida righthander Jeff Driskel) who finished up their high-school education in December and enrolled in college as freshmen in January.

Clayton may have been a first-round pick in June had he remained at an Idaho high school and completed his senior year this spring. He ranks right behind his Oregon teammate, righthander/third baseman Ryon Healy, as the nation’s highest-ranked freshmen that weren’t drafted. Healy, No. 8 on the list, reportedly scared off teams from even drafting him with a significant seven-figure asking price.

The tendency for a first-round pick to opt for college over pro ball, even against the backdrop of escalating bonuses, is a fairly recent trend, and stems in part from the leverage given to big-league clubs in the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement that enables them to walk away from difficult negotiations and recoup their losses with a corresponding pick in the following year’s draft. Both the Padres and Brewers will earn an extra first-round pick this year for not signing Whitson and Covey.

Over the 45-year life of the baseball draft, teams have failed to sign high-school players taken in the first round on 35 occasions. The practice was particularly commonplace in the draft’s first 12 years, when the average first-round bonus was less than $50,000 (as opposed to the 2010 average of about $2.2 million). The 1970, 1971, 1976, 1979 and 1989 drafts each saw three prep players drafted in the first round go unsigned, but prior to Cole in 2008, no high school first-rounder had gone unsigned in seven years. Since then, though, it’s happened five times.

The 2010 draft marked the first time that Florida and San Diego had secured the services of an unsigned first-round pick. Southern California holds the distinction of steering four prep first-rounders to college, though none since 1976.

While several prominent unsigned picks from last year’s draft dominate the preliminary 2013 draft list, a number of high-school players have begun to establish themselves as potential first-rounders two years down the road.

The No. 1-ranked prep player on the list, according to Perfect Game, is shortstop Chris Rivera from El Dorado High in Anaheim, Calif. Rivera, who ranks No. 5 overall, has solid tools across the board and has even been clocked up to 91 mph as a pitcher, though is being more closely pursued as an everyday player.

With three college and high-school seasons yet to be played until the 2013 draft is held, it’s safe to say that the list of top prospects probably will change considerably between now and then. But with players like Covey and Whitson in the mix, teams aren’t likely to stray too far from the opportunity to re-draft an ex-first rounder.

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