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Draft  | Story | 10/15/2010

2011 Draft Overview

Allan Simpson
College Theme Evident in Current Class
 
The 2011 draft class is beginning to take shape, and it’s readily apparent that college players populate the top of the list.
 
That’s understandable, to a degree, as two of the headliners are a pair of former unsigned first-rounders: UCLA righthander Gerrit Cole and Texas Christian lefthander Matthew Purke.
 
The Pittsburgh Pirates have the No. 1 pick overall, and Cole (Yankees, 2008) and Purke (Rangers, 2009) are almost certainly on the short list of prospects the Pirates will consider. But Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon, Connecticut outfielder George Springer and Texas righthander Taylor Jungmann are three additional college names that are getting equal billing.
 
According to PG CrossChecker’s ranking of the top 300 prospects for the 2011 draft, Rendon ranks No. 1 on the list, followed by Cole, Springer and Jungmann.
 
There is no clear consensus, meanwhile, on the top high-school prospect in the current draft class, though Tennessee lefthander Daniel Norris, and Oklahoma righthanders Archie Bradley and Dylan Bundy have been the most heavily-scouted players. Bundy ranks No. 5, Bradley No. 6.
 
The preponderance of college talent in the 2011 class is in contrast to this year’s draft, where the first college player selected didn’t come until the fourth pick.
 
Here are 10 overriding issues that figure to impact the 2011 draft:
 
1 PIRATES PICK FIRST
 
It’s been routinely documented that the Pirates haven’t had a winning season since 1992 (a record 18 straight losing years, and counting), but the club reached new depths this year with a 105-loss season. That easily insured Pittsburgh will pick first in the 2011 draft for the third such occasion since their losing ways began. On both prior occasions, the Pirates picked college righthanders: Clemson’s Kris Benson in 1996 and Ball State’s Brian Bullington in 2002.
 
In the past five drafts, the Pirates have picked no lower than fourth—second in 2008 and 2010, and fourth in 2006, 2007 and 2009—and they outdid themselves this season by posting the worst record in the big leagues, assuring themselves the No. 1 pick.
 
Not since the San Diego Padres picked no worse than fourth for six consecutive drafts from 1970-75 (including the No. 1 overall pick three times) has a big-league team had such a favorable drafting position for as long a stretch as the Pirates, though the Tampa Bay Rays went 10 straight years (1999-2008) picking no worse than eighth (including No. 1 overall four times).
 
For more on the No. 1 pick and the Pirates recent history with their top picks, please read Patrick Ebert’s story.
 
2 RENDON BITTEN BY INJURY BUG
 
Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon has clearly established himself as the front runner to go No. 1 overall in 2011, based on his superior all-around tools and enviable track record in two years at the college level. As a freshman, he hit .388-20-72 for the Owls; as a sophomore, he posted a .394-26-85 line with a 65-22 walk-to-strikeout ratio while committing just five errors at the hot corner.
 
Oddly, Rendon incurred severe ankle injuries the last two summers that led to surgery on both occasions. That effectively killed his chances of performing with USA Baseball’s college national team, and cost scouts an opportunity to see him swing with wood over an extended stretch.
 
That has obviously not been a deterrent in his lofty draft standing as scouts have been impressed with his short, quick, fluid swing throughout his college career at Rice, along with his discerning eye and plate discipline. He should have no trouble transitioning to professional baseball.
 
Rendon broke his ankle on a rundown play last July while with Team USA, and subsequently underwent ankle surgery 12 days later. He tore ligaments in the same ankle a year earlier, leading to surgery, but was not impacted at all by that injury as a sophomore. It is anticipated that his latest ankle surgery won’t slow him as a junior.
 
3 BRADLEY IN VOGUE
 
Only twice previously in the 45-year history of the baseball draft has a player with the surname Bradley been a first-round pick (Mark, Dodgers/1974; Bobby, Pirates/1999). That occurrence could happen three times in 2011, in the top half of the first round alone.
 
Among the draft’s top prospects are Oklahoma prep righthander Archie Bradley, who could be the first high-school player drafted; South Carolina outfielder Jackie Bradley, MVP of the College World Series; and Georgia Tech lefthander Jed Bradley, the most impressive arm in this summer’s Cape Cod League all-star game.
 
On the accompanying list of top 2011 prospects, Archie Bradley is ranked No. 6, Jackie Bradley No. 8 and Jed Bradley No. 10.
 
4 VANDERBILT’S TIME AT HAND
 
Despite producing a steady stream of elite draft picks, including Tampa Bay Rays lefthander David Price (No. 1 overall in 2007), and averaging 40 wins in Tim Corbin’s eight years as the school’s head coach, Vanderbilt has still not appeared in the College World Series.
 
If draftable talent counts for anything, the Commodores should be a slam dunk to reach Omaha in 2011. The team has three projected first-round picks in righthanders Sonny Gray and Jack Armstrong, and shortstop Jason Esposito.
 
There’s also an outside chance that lefthander Grayson Garvin, the Cape Cod League’s pitcher of the year, and righthander Navery Moore, who was the nation’s best prospect four years ago as a high-school junior before being beset by arm issues, could crack the first round, as well.
 
Only five times in draft history has one college team produced three first-round picks in the same draft. The last such occurrence was 2008, when Miami had a trio of first-rounders.
 
The 5-foot-10 Gray, ranked No. 12 overall on the accompanying list, might have been squarely in the running to be No. 1 on the list had it not been for his size. He has electric stuff with a fastball at 96-97 mph and a power curve, but he’s expected to become the latest victim of teams’ aversion to short righthanders.
 
5 ALL EYES ON TEXAS
 
Texas will be a popular destination for scouts next spring. Led by Rendon, Texas righthander Taylor Jungmann and TCU lefthander Matthew Purke, the state’s college ranks could not only produce three picks in the top 10, but the possibility of 5-6 selections in the first round. PG CrossChecker has identified at least 14 Texas college players with a legitimate chance of being taken in the top three rounds.
 
That doesn’t even include Texas righthander Cole Green, an unsigned fourth-rounder in this year’s draft who is unexpectedly back with the Longhorns for his senior year. At 11-2, 2.74, Green was one of the nation’s most effective pitchers last spring, and should team with Jungmann (8-3, 2.03) to give the Longhorns an imposing 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation.
 
While scouts are enamored with the 6-foot-6, 195-pound Jungmann and his mid-90s fastball, they are less enthralled with the stockily-built Green and his more modest stuff.
 
6 NO HARPER TO PUMP UP JC RANKS
 
The 2010 draft was a showpiece for the nation’s junior-college ranks and put them in the spotlight like no draft before. Not only was Southern Nevada’s Bryce Harper the top pick overall, but five juco players were among the top 100 selections.
 
There are no JC players who are even close to Harper’s stature in the current crop, and only one is listed in the top 100 overall. But the JC crop is slowly starting to evolve this fall and could be a significant factor again, mainly because of the assortment of players that have transferred from four-year schools.
 
Angelina (Texas) righthander Ian Gardeck, a Dayton transfer whose fastball has been clocked this fall at 96 mph, is the top-rated JC prospect at this point, although he is expected to be challenged in the spring by at least two other Texas products, returning San Jacinto lefthander Miguel Pena and Navarro righthander Drew Verhagen, an Oklahoma transfer.
 
7 NO CLEAR-CUT PREP PROSPECT
 
Oklahoma righthanders Archie Bradley and Dylan Bundy, and Tennessee lefthander Daniel Norris are generally considered the top prospects in this year’s high school class, but none separated himself this summer. All three still players have a fair shot of becoming the first high school players drafted, but need to be more consistent with their stuff and command.
 
Of all the other players presently on the first-round radar who stand the best bet of surpassing that trio, the logical candidates are Kansas outfielder Bubba Starling, a superior all-around athlete, and Florida shortstop Francisco Lindor, a defensive standout.
 
8 CHANGES COMING
 
If the prep talent in this year’s draft is a little unclear at the top, that may soon change as the 2011 draft will be the last under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement between Major League Baseball and the Player’s Association.
 
Significant changes to the draft are reportedly in the works, including the potential legislation of a hard bonus cap, which may end up driving a number of top high-school prospects not taken in the first round to the college ranks in the future.
 
But that’s down the road.
 
9 ZACH LEE REINCARNATED
 
One of the more startling developments of the 2010 draft was the $5.25 million bonus the Los Angeles Dodgers forked over to Texas two-sport star Zach Lee, the 28th selection overall. His bonus was the third highest handed out this year, trailing only the $6.25 million given to Harper (as part of a major league contract) and $6.5 million handed over to Texas prep righthander Jameson Taillon, the top two selections.
 
Lee, a righthander, had significant leverage because he was also a standout quarterback, and had already participated in pre-season workouts at Louisiana State before the Dodgers swooped in and signed him at the Aug. 16 deadline.
 
Among the first-round candidates in the 2011 draft class who might be position to leverage similar deals, the two best candidates would appear to be Bradley, who has committed to play football and baseball at Oklahoma, and Kansas outfielder Bubba Starling, who has committed to play the same sports at Nebraska. Both players are outstanding quarterback prospects
 
10 PG PRODUCTS
 
While we listed only 300 players in the accompanying rundown of top prospects for the 2011 draft, we actually identified 500 players as candidates for the top 300, which roughly equates to the top 10 rounds of the draft.
 
It’s interesting to note that 189 of 205 high-school players under consideration have been to a Perfect Game event in the past. Thirteen more were scouted by PG at non-Perfect Game events, leaving only three players that had not yet been seen by PG and its scouting staff.
 
Similarly, 27 of the 30 junior-college players we considered have been to PG events in the past.
 
Our track record of college players attending a PG event at some point during their high school career is not as complete. Among 265 college players that we identified as top candidates for the top 10 rounds next June, a total of 193 (or about 73 percent) attended a PG event.
 
With the WWBA fall championship set for next week in Jupiter, Fla., it’s safe to say that we’ll see a large number of high-school prospects that are currently in the top 300, and there’s no doubt we’ll also see a handful more high-school prospects who will emerge as top prospects for next year’s draft because of their participation in Jupiter.
Draft 2011: Top 300 Prospects  
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