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Draft  | Follow List | 6/3/2010

ILLINOIS

2010 FOLLOW LIST
 
COMPILED by DAVID RAWNSLEY
 
STATE OVERVIEW
The work of Illinois scouts this spring was pretty much cut-and-dried. They took a “Two-and-the-Field” approach, with all their high-end focus on two premium prospects, high-school righthander Mike Foltynewicz and junior-college outfielder Mel Rojas Jr. Those two players dominated an otherwise shallow Illinois prospect list from start to finish.
 
Foltynewicz showcased his potential in February at Perfect Game’s annual Indoor Showcase and strung together a series of strong performances early in the spring, often touching 95-96 mph. His fastball settled more into the 91-94 mph range during the second half of the spring, when he was being cross-checked heavily.
 
The slight drop in velocity, combined with some delivery inconsistencies, squelched talk of Foltynewicz being a potential first-rounder. The 6-foot-4, 190-pound righthander also elected to go with a newly-learned slider in the second half, at the expense of his power curveball. Scouts openly acknowledged that the pitch didn’t show nearly as much potential as his more-established curve.
 
Rojas simply put together one of the most-impressive seasons any Illinois player has had at any level in recent years. He hit .398-12-71 with 19 doubles and 10 triples for a 50-12 Wabash Valley team that fell one game short of reaching the Junior College World Series. Perhaps more impressive, Rojas stole 61 bases in 64 attempts and scored 94 runs in his leadoff role.
 
The 6-foot-3, 195-pound Rojas, a Dominican product and the son of the former major-league closer, has excellent athleticism and top-of-the-scale speed, along with an impressive throwing arm. The concern that scouts have about Rojas is his hitting ability, and whether he can make consistent, hard contact against upper-level pitching.
 
As one area scout summarized Rojas, “It depends on what days the cross-checkers saw him. I saw him make contact in four out of 20 swings during the year, and he looked off-balance the entire time. When my cross-checkers came in, he hit about 15 straight balls square on the barrel. If you see him swing the bat, you can slot him as high as you want to.”
 
Junior-college baseball was definitely one of the highlights in Illinois this spring.
 
In addition to Rojas, Wabash Valley had two other position players who had impressive offensive seasons that warranted the attention of scouts, first baseman Tyler Oliver (.456-30-103) and third baseman Michael Mosby (.451-18-82). Oliver led the national Division I ranks in homers, 30-29, over Southern Nevada’s Bryce Harper, the projected No. 1 pick in the draft. Harper, though, has a shot at leap-frogging past Oliver as his team is participating in the JUCO World Series; the 6-foot-2, 230-pound Oliver has no chance to be drafted anywhere near Harper, but could go after the 15th round.
 
Defending NJCAA Division II national champion Parkland CC returned to the D-II World Series, even after losing the first game of its regional playoff. It stormed back to win six straight games, including a 10-9 win over Heartland CC, its arch-rival, in the regional championship game. Parkland outfielder Kevin Kiermaier produced big numbers (.431-17-70, 36/39 SB) and ranks right behind Rojas as the state’s best JC prospect.
 
Much to the disappointment of scouts, only one college player stepped up this spring and performed better than expected. Coincidentally, he played for the state’s only representative in the NCAA Division I tournament.
 
Illinois State entered the Missouri Valley Conference tournament with a 27-22 record, knowing it would have to win outright to advance to the NCAA tournament. It swept four straight games, including a 17-8 win over perennial regional participant Wichita State in the final.
 
The driving force for the Redbirds all season was sophomore second baseman Kevin Tokarski, who missed the entire 2009 college season with a lingering wrist injury. He had to have his wrist re-broken and re-constructed when the injury didn’t heal properly, and that kind of injury for a hitter is often a big long-term problem.
 
But Tokarski didn’t show any ill effects this spring, hitting .429-7-47 with 50 walks and 33 stolen bases. He will be limited to second base defensively because of his below-average arm strength, but Tokarski’s hitting ability and speed warrant his being drafted anytime after the 10th round.
 
Beyond Foltynewicz, the Illinois prep ranks won’t yield many premium draft picks—at least not to the state’s accustomed pace as the nation’s best talent producer among traditional northern states.
 
Though Illinois no longer produces draftable talent in the volume it did even a generation ago, the state’s high schools still rank sixth nationally in the six-year period from 2004-09. A total of 277 draft picks came from Illinois high schools, though the vast majority of players were later selected out of college programs.
 
Foltynewicz is one of the few Illinois high-school players expected to sign immediately. St. Rita High center field Mark Payton might have been a candidate to rival Foltynewicz as the first prep player drafted, but as an undersized, 5-foot-8 athlete with a scholarship to Arizona State, he doesn’t profile for scouts out of high school.
 
One area scout remarked, though, that if Payton, the Most Valuable Player of the 2008 World Wood Bat Association fall championship, was even 6-feet tall, he could be a potential first-rounder down the road because his baseball skills are so advanced. For this year, he rates as no better than a middle-round selection.
 
IN A NUTSHELL
STRENGTH: Pitching, Mel Rojas Jr.
WEAKNESS: High-level prospects, aside from Mike Foltynewicz.
OVERALL RATING (1-to-5 scale): 3.
 
BEST COLLEGE TEAM: Illinois State.
BEST JUNIOR COLLEGE TEAM: Wabash Valley.
BEST HIGH SCHOOL TEAM: Adlai Stevenson HS, Lincolnshire.
 
PROSPECT ON THE RISE:Brian Tokarski, 2b, Illinois State. Huge spring (.429-7-47, 33 SB) led Illinois State to surprise NCAA berth; can hit and run, but concerns about past wrist injury.
PROSPECT ON THE DECLINE:Patrick Cooper, rhp, Bradley. Showed top-5 round stuff in the Cape last summer; but fastball and slider didn’t show close to the same power this spring.
WILD CARD: Mel Rojas Jr., of, Wabash Valley JC. First-round raw tools, very inconsistent swings from game to game, depends on what games high-level scouts saw him.
 
BEST OUT-OF-STATE PROSPECT, Illinois Connection: Seth Blair, rhp, Arizona State (Attended high school in Rock Falls).
TOP 2011 PROSPECT: Joe Ceja, rhp, Marquette HS.
TOP 2012 PROSPECT: Brett Lilek, lhp, Marion Catholic HS.
 
HIGHEST DRAFT PICKS
Draft History: Danny Goodwin, c, Central HS, Peoria (1971, White Sox/1st round, 1st pick).
2006 Draft: Joe Benson, c, Joliet Catholic HS (Twins/2nd round).
2007 Draft: Jake Smolinski, 3b, Boylan Catholic HS, Rockford (Nationals/2nd round).
2008 Draft: Jake Odorizzi, rhp, Highland HS (Brewers/1st round, 32nd pick).
2009 Draft: Tyler Kehrer, lhp, Eastern Illinois U. (Angels/1st round, 48th pick).
 
BEST TOOLS
Best Hitter: Kevin Tokarski, 2b, Illinois State.
Best Power: Tyler Oliver, 1b, Wabash Valley JC.
Best Speed: Mel Rojas Jr., of, Wabash Valley JC.
Best Defender: Mel Rojas Jr., of, Wabash Valley JC.
Best Velocity: Mike Foltynewicz, rhp Minooka Community HS.
Best Breaking Stuff: Mike Foltynewicz, rhp, Minooka Community HS.
 
TOP PROSPECTS
Full scouting reports available on players ranked on national Top 250 list (click on National Top 250)

 
GROUP ONE(Projected ELITE-Round Draft / Rounds 1-3)
1. MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ, rhp, Minooka Community HS, Minooka                National Top 250 (Rank 47)
6-5/210 RHP; FB up to 95-96, flashed power CU early, switched to undesirable SL; Texas signee

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