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Draft  | Follow List | 6/1/2010

OREGON

2010 FOLLOW LIST
 
COMPILED by ALLAN SIMPSON
 
STATE OVERVIEW
College baseball has been on the upswing in Oregon ever since the Oregon State Beavers pulled rank and won back-to-back College World Series championships in 2006 and 2007.
 
The short-term impact of that stunning accomplishment was considerable, and reverberated throughout the entire Pacific Northwest. Among other things, it spurred the revival of dormant baseball programs at the University of Oregon and Seattle University, and enabled the Beavers to expand their recruiting network nationally.
 
But the tangible, on-field impact of OSU’s success may not have fully resonated until this season, as Oregon earned an NCAA regional berth in just its second year back, and the previously downtrodden University of Portland program, which hadn’t even had a winning season since 1992, narrowly missed earning a tournament bid, too.
 
OSU, of course, also punched its tournament ticket. But in the grand scheme of things, the 2010 season was somewhat of a disappointment for the Beavers, who went only 31-22 overall and didn’t even post a winning record (12-15) in Pac-10 play. More than anything, the team’s impact on the draft is expected to fall well short of expectations.
 
At one time, there were realistic expectations that Oregon State might have as many as 6-8 pitchers off this year’s staff claimed in the top 5-6 rounds, with the possibility of at least a couple of first-rounders.
 
But most of the pitchers on a Beavers staff that posted a collective 3.95 ERA didn’t pitch up to expectations, or even close to it in some cases. A major contributing factor was the season-ending Tommy John surgery that claimed possibly the two most-electric arms on the staff, lefthander Josh Osich and righthander Taylor Starr, but the possibility now exists that OSU will have only one arm taken in the first five rounds.
 
That would most likely be junior righthander Greg Peavey, who may be the only Beavers pitcher who has pitched well enough this spring to enhance his stock. But even Peavey is coming off two disappointing seasons for the Beavers, and has really only restored the value that he had as a highly regarded high-school talent before enrolling at Oregon State.
 
The two Beavers pitchers whose value seems to have slipped most are righthanders Tyler Waldron, who quickly lost his job as the team’s Friday starter because of his ineffectiveness, and closer Kevin Rhoderick, who saved 21 games in his first two seasons with the Beavers, but also fell out of favor early and lost his accustomed role, as well. The pitchers, both with fastballs that have been clocked in the mid-90s, were ranked 1-2 among the state’s top prospects for the draft (in the absence of Osich and Starr) at the start of the season.
 
Had Osich and Starr been healthy and available, they almost certainly would have warranted the top two spots. But the 6-foot-3, 195-pound Osich, an Idaho prep product whose fastball has registered 98 mph in the past, succumbed to Tommy John surgery in January. The 6-foot-3, 205-pound Starr, whose fastball has peaked at 97, underwent the same season-ending elbow surgery (for the second time in his career) in March.
 
Lingering arm issues and Osich’s inability to command his breaking ball consistently had already limited him to just five starts in his first two years with the Beavers. Moreover, he has yet to win a game at the college level. A strong likelihood exists that someone will pop him in the first 10 rounds. Starr’s status is a little more tentative.
 
For all the various issues that have impacted their pitching staff, the Beavers could still have as many as seven arms taken in the top 20-25 rounds.
 
Oregon’s two best potential draft picks, meanwhile, could very well be senior righthanders Justin LaTempa and Zach Thornton, who were supposed to be centerpieces of Oregon’s first team in more than 25 years, but didn’t win a game in 2009 as they missed almost all of the season with arm injuries. Between them, LaTempa and Thornton won 14 games this year as Oregon improved from a 14-42 record to 38-22. LaTempa’s fastball topped out at 96 mph this spring, Thornton’s at 93.
 
No two pitchers may have helped to exact more of a turnaround for their team, though, than Portland ace righthander Zach Varce (6-2, 3.29, 109 IP/18 BB/89 SO) and junior closer Chris Dennis (5-1, 1.88, 14 SV), who led the Pilots to 34 wins—second most in school history (36, in 1982). Since its last winning season 18 years ago, Portland had gone a combined 297-565. Portland had also finished last or second-to-last in the West Coast Conference all but three years since its acceptance into the league in 1996, and was 111-261 overall in conference until reversing course and going 14-7 this season.
 
Both Varce and Dennis are under-sized righthanders, by pro standards, which may hamper their draft appeal, but Varce has impressive stuff and throws a lot of strikes, and could easily work his way into the first 10 rounds.
 
While Oregon State’s impact on the draft was considerable in the years it won consecutive College World Series titles, the combined contribution of Oregon’s three Division I colleges makes this the deepest and most significant draft in state history.
 
Meanwhile, the dynamic of both Oregon’s junior-college and high-school classes has changed appreciably since the start of the 2010 season.
 
Mt. Hood CC power-hitting first baseman Taylor Ard was expected to be one of the state’s best draft picks, but was lost for the season with a broken wrist after just a handful of at-bats. Scouts have been resigned since that Ard will move on to Washington State for the 2011 season, and try his luck in the draft again a year from now.
 
Oregon’s high-school crop was not expected to have much of an impact on the draft, but Ashland High righthander Ian Kendall suddenly emerged from the pack at mid-season with a fastball that spiked to 95 mph, causing a late flurry by scouts, and only adding to an already impressive Oregon draft crop.
 
IN A NUTSHELL
STRENGTH: College pitching.
WEAKNESS: High-school depth.
OVERALL RATING (1-to-5 scale): 5.
 
BEST COLLEGE TEAM: Oregon.
BEST JUNIOR-COLLEGE TEAM: Lane.
BEST HIGH-SCHOOL TEAM: Ashland.
 
PROSPECT ON THE RISE: Ian Kendall, of-rhp, Ashland HS. Just when it looked like Oregon’s high-school crop would be a non-factor, Kendall came out throwing 95.
PROSPECT ON THE DECLINE: Taylor Ard, 1b, Mt. Hood CC. The state’s best offensive threat and junior-college talent was lost for the season with a broken wrist.
WILD CARD: Josh Osich, lhp, Oregon State. His hope of going in the first round was dashed by Tommy John surgery in January, but area scouts haven’t easily forgotten his high-90s fastball.
 
BEST OUT-OF-STATE PROSPECT, Oregon Connection: Tym Pearson, of, Columbia Basin (Wash.) CC (Attended high school in Eugene).
TOP 2011 PROSPECT: Andrew Susac, c, Oregon State.
TOP 2012 PROSPECT: Christian Jones, lhp, Oregon.
 
HIGHEST DRAFT PICKS
Highest Pick, Draft History: Dave Roberts, 3b, U. of Oregon (1972, Padres/1st round, 1st pick).
Highest Pick, 2006 Draft: Dallas Buck, rhp, Oregon State U. (Diamondbacks/3rd round).
Highest Pick, 2007 Draft: Eddie Kunz, rhp, Oregon State U. (Mets/1st round, 42nd pick).
Highest Pick, 2008 Draft: Ty Morrison, of, Tigard HS (Rays/4th round).
Highest Pick, 2009 Draft: Erik Stavert, rhp, U. of Oregon (Rockies/7th round).
 
BEST TOOLS
Best Hitter: Adalberto Santos, of, Oregon State.
Best Power: Stefen Romero, 3b/1b, Oregon State.
Best Speed: Adalberto Santos, of, Oregon State.
Best Defender: Rocky Gale, c, Portland.
Best Velocity: Josh Osich, lhp, Oregon State.
Best Breaking Stuff: Kevin Rhoderick, rhp, Oregon State.
 
TOP PROSPECTS
Full scouting reports available on players ranked on national Top 250 list (click on National Top 300)
 
GROUP ONE (Projected ELITE-Round Draft / Rounds 1-3)
1. GREG PEAVEY, rhp, Oregon State (Jr.)                                                          National Top 250 (Rank 141)
Cleaner delivery/renewed confidence from big summer season contributed to better stuff (91-94 FB)/results
 

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