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Draft  | Follow List | 5/28/2010

NORTH CAROLINA

 2010 FOLLOW LIST
 
COMPILED by JEFF SIMPSON
 
STATE OVERVIEW
As one of the nation’s steadily improving talent sources, the state of North Carolina has produced at least two first-round picks in each of the last five drafts, with the University of North Carolina’s Dustin Ackley and Alex White going No. 2 and 15, respectively, last year. 
 
While UNC righthander Matt Harvey seems like a lock to go in the first round this year, the state will not produce two first-rounders for the first time since 2004.
 
In fact, the state may be hard-pressed to provide a second college player in even the top 3-4 rounds as North Carolina is largely devoid of high-end college talent this year—and even at the high-school level, for that matter.
 
Harvey was hardly a lock to go in the first round entering the 2010 season. His draft stature had backed up to such a degree in 2009, particularly during the summer in a less-than-impressive stint in the Cape Cod League, that Harvey was viewed as a long shot to be a premium draft. His mechanics, command and raw stuff had simply regressed that far.
 
Coming out of a Connecticut high school, Harvey was one of the nation’s elite high-school arms. In fact, he and 2009 American League Rookie of the Year Rick Porcello, a fellow UNC recruit, were considered the two best prep arms available in the 2007 draft. While Porcello became a first-rounder and signed with the Detroit Tigers for more than $7 million, Harvey slid to the third round because he had made his intentions clear that he preferred to pitch in college. The Los Angeles Angels never came close to signing him.
 
Harvey essentially lived up to expectations as a freshman, posting a 7-2, 2.79 record as UNC’s Sunday starter. He was considered the top college prospect in the 2010 draft class at the time, but soon thereafter things began to unravel. His once-smooth arm action and delivery seemingly left him in 2009, and he struggled to the same 7-2 record but with a grossly inflated 5.40 ERA. Things deteriorated to such a point last summer that his velocity dipped to the mid-80s at times, and scouts were fearful that his mechanics might never be the same.
 
But Harvey was like a new man this spring. It was apparent that he had received extensive instruction in the off-season to fine-tune his mechanics. His fastball has routinely been in the 92-96 mph range this spring, often topping at 98, and his secondary stuff (two plus breaking balls, and a quality changeup) and command have been much sharper. Still, his recent struggles may keep him out of the top half of the first round.
 
Aside from Harvey, the North Carolina college ranks are very thin. And that extends to a noticeable lack of dominant college teams in the state.
 
With four straight College World Series appearances on its resume, plus a roster that includes the state’s elite college prospect in the freshman, sophomore and junior classes, the University of North Carolina would have seemed to be a slam-dunk as the top college team in the state this season.
 
But the Tar Heels didn’t even so much as qualify for the eight-team Atlantic Coast Conference tournament. Neither did Duke, or a struggling Wake Forest program. North Carolina State squeezed in with a 15-15 conference record.
 
East Carolina, probably the state’s second-most successful program in recent years, barely qualified for the six-team Conference USA tournament field with an 11-13 record. No North Carolina teams are ranked in the top 25 nationally, or are even close.
 
While there is a lack of premium talent this year, North Carolina will still likely produce the fourth-highest number of college draft picks behind California, Florida and Texas, as has generally been the case lately as fewer states have raised their draft profile more in recent years than North Carolina.
 
Though only eight players were drafted directly out of North Carolina high schools in 2008, and 13 a year ago, there were 53 players selected in the 2009 draft who attended Tar Heel high schools. As a point of reference, that number was just 22 a mere five years earlier. North Carolina is the only state in the nation that has seen an annual increase every year since 2004.
 
Way back in 1965, the Carolinas (both North and South) were virtual baseball wastelands as only 13 players selected in that inaugural draft were products of North Carolina high schools. Moreover, only 11 players were drafted from colleges in the state that year. That number has grown exponentially since.
 
In terms of draftable high-school talent this year, Charlotte outfielder Ty Linton is the unquestioned cream of the crop. But Linton’s status for the 2010 draft is a bit clouded because he’s also an excellent football prospect and has committed to play that sport at North Carolina. His signability, as a result, could be a significant issue, though Linton clearly has the raw talent to work his way into the first two rounds.
 
Goldsboro shortstop Connor Narron, son of ex-big league player and manager Jerry Narron and a UNC recruit like Linton, once was viewed as the state’s best high-school talent, but his game has leveled off in the last year or two to a point that he probably won’t be drafted in the top five rounds. Another son of an ex-big leaguer, James Baldwin III, has surfaced recently as a potential draft pick, but his game (unlike Narron’s) is at such an unrefined stage of development that he’s a longshot to go in the top 10 rounds.
 
If there’s reason to despair over the 2010 North Carolina draft crop, scouts can at least set their sights on 2011, when the state is expected to be overrun by premium prospects, including Baldwin’s much more-heralded prep teammate, righthander Dillon Maples.
 
IN A NUTSHELL
STRENGTH: Depth of college talent.
WEAKNESS: High-end college talent.
OVERALL RATING (1-to-5 scale): 2.
 
BEST COLLEGE TEAM: Elon.
BEST JUNIOR-COLLEGE TEAM:Pitt.
BEST HIGH-SCHOOL TEAM: East Rowan HS, Salisbury.
 
PROSPECT ON THE RISE:Austin Brice, rhp, Northwood HS, Pittsboro. A late-bloomer on the prep scene, he has touched 94 this spring with a plus curve, command is an issue.
PROSPECT ON THE DECLINE: Blake Hassebrock, rhp, UNG Greensboro. Regarded as the second-best college prospect in the state behind Matt Harvey, he has been a big disappointment (0-7, 7.17), and his stuff is down noticeably from last summer.
WILD CARD: Ty Linton, of, Charlotte Christian HS. An outstanding athlete with impressive tools, his football scholarship to UNC complicates his signability. Already 19, he would be draft-eligible again as a college sophomore.
 
BEST OUT-OF-STATE PROSPECT, North Carolina Connection: Whit Merrifield, of, U. of South Carolina (Attended high school in Advance).
TOP 2011 PROSPECT: Dillon Maples, rhp, Pinecrest HS, West End.
TOP 2012 PROSPECT: Marcus Stroman, rhp/2b, Duke.
 
HIGHEST DRAFT PICKS
Draft History: B.J. Surhoff, c, U. of North Carolina (1985, Brewers/1st round, 1st pick); Brien Taylor, lhp, East Carteret HS, Beaufort (1991, Yankees/1st round, 1st pick); Josh Hamilton, of, Athens Drive HS, Raleigh (1999, Devil Rays/1st round, 1st pick).
2006 Draft: Andrew Miller, lhp, U. of North Carolina (Tigers/1st round, 6th pick).
2007 Draft: Madison Bumgarner, lhp, South Caldwell HS, Lenoir (Giants/1st round, 10th pick).
2008 Draft: Allan Dykstra, 1b, Wake Forest (Padres/1st round, 23rd pick).
2009 Draft: Dustin Ackley, of, U. of North Carolina (Mariners/1st round, 2nd pick).
 
BEST TOOLS
Best Hitter: Kyle Roller, 1b, East Carolina.
Best Power: Ty Linton, of, Charlotte Christian HS.
Best Speed: Steven Brooks, of, Wake Forest.
Best Defender: Jake Lemmerman, ss, Duke.
Best Velocity: Matt Harvey, rhp, North Carolina.
Best Breaking Stuff:Matt Harvey, rhp, North Carolina.
 
TOP PROSPECTS
Full scouting reports available on players ranked on national Top 500 list (click on National Top 500)
 
GROUP ONE (Projected ELITE-Round Draft / Rounds 1-3)
1. MATT HARVEY, rhp, North Carolina (Jr.)                                                       National Top 500 (Rank 17)
Solid year (7-3, 3.10, 90 IP/93 SO) after rough 2009, likely first-rounder with three potential plus pitches

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