Strasburg was perhaps the most obvious No. 1 overall pick ever, as it was almost a foregone conclusion when he was just a sophomore at San Diego State that he would go No. 1. It was just a case of which big-league team that finished at the bottom of the standings would get first crack at him. The Washington Nationals backed into that honor, and are eagerly anticipating his arrival in the big leagues that should roughly coincide with the first anniversary of his selection.

While Strasburg was the obvious draft show-stopper in 2009, there were five other California players that were picked among the first 13 selections.

The 2010 draft, from California’s vantage point, lacks the obvious star power of a Strasburg, and there’s no real certainly on an order that the top players will go off the board—or even that any will be among the first 10 picks. If there is a distinguishing feature about this year’s procedure, there should be more depth than the 2009 version as the state’s high school crop, in particular, is very deep.

Pasadena prep righthander Dylan Covey sits atop PG Crosschecker’s draft rankings for California, but the large number of top-level, righthanded high-school pitching prospects around the country leaves his status as the potential first Californian to go off the board open to many variables.

Two Cal State Fullerton standouts, shortstop Christian Colon and center fielder Gary Brown, are also on the short list of players from the state who could be drafted first, although the speedy Brown was expected to miss the last 2-3 weeks before the draft with a broken finger. Colon would be an excellent fit for a club looking for a mature, signable college hitter who should get to the major leagues quickly, although his limited physical ceiling isn’t what clubs usually look for in the top half of the first round.

The California prospect with possibly the highest physical ceiling is Los Angeles prep outfielder Austin Wilson. But he’s no sure thing to even go in the first round as his academic record and strong commitment to a Stanford scholarship will mean that a team will have to significantly overpay for the right to develop his outstanding tools package. That is something few clubs seem to be of the mindset to do in a year when a tough economy still grips much of the country.

If there are questions how all of California’s high-end talent gets sorted out, there’s less uncertainty how the state will impact the second day of the draft, starting with Round 2. There is just too much talent commanding early-round interest not to see a run on California players.

It’s unlikely, though, that any California college team will duplicate what both California and Southern California achieved in 2009, when they each had three players selected in the first 67 picks, even as neither school posted a winning record.

The big news at the college level in California this spring has been the resurgence of a UCLA program after years of struggles and perceived underachievement.

The Bruins were a collective nine games under .500 over the past five seasons (27-29 in 2009) and had not won more than 33 games in a season during that span. Yet they ran off a 22-game unbeaten streak to begin the year and kept going behind an outstanding starting rotation of sophomore righthanders Gerrit Cole (8-2, 3.00) and Trevor Bauer (9-3, 2.95), junior lefthander Rob Rasmussen (8-2, 3.00) and senior righthander Garett Claypool (8-3, 2.09), along with red-shirt sophomore closer RHP Dan Klein (5-0, 2.23, 9 SV).

A 41-12 UCLA team had a staff ERA of 3.12 and a collective 543 strikeouts in 482 innings entering the final weekend of the regular season. Klein and Rasmussen will make the biggest impact among Bruins players in this year’s draft, and should be among all the Californians taken in the first three rounds. The best may be yet to come for the Bruins, though, as both Cole and Bauer are potential first-round picks in 2011.

Led by Brown (.438-6-41, 31 SB) and Colon (.350-14-55), perennial state power Cal State Fullerton rebounded from an uncharacteristic 5-7 start to the 2010season and had actually moved ahead of UCLA in PG Crosschecker’s ranking of the nation’s top 50 college teams in mid-May.

A third college team that should impact the early rounds of the draft with multiple selections, and also have a realistic chance to make inroads deep into the post season, is the University of San Diego, which has followed essentially the same blueprint for success as UCLA. The Toreros, like the Bruins, have little to offer the draft in terms of viable position prospects, but have an excellent pitching staff, led by lefthander Sammy Solis (9-1, 2.52, 82 IP/84 SO) and righthander Kyle Blair (7-4, 3.17, 82 IP/105 SO).

The school that has positioned itself for a UCLA-like rise to prominence in 2011 is another traditional power that has fallen on leaner times in the past decade, Stanford. The Cardinal (30-21) boast one of the top two freshman classes in the country (along with Florida) and has played with the inconsistency of youth much of the spring. For one of the first times in memory, the team has no obvious candidate in the early rounds.

The 80-team strong California junior-college ranks don’t have a marquee talent to offer the draft, either, in sharp contrast to what is happening elsewhere in the country. Led by Southern Nevada catching sensation Bryce Harper (possibly the second greatest pre-determined No. 1 overall pick in draft history, after Strasburg), there could be 10-12 junior-college players taken in the top three rounds this year.

The best JC talent California has to offer is Cerritos second baseman Joe Terry, who missed more than half the 2010 season with a shoulder injury and was reduced to a DH role when he did play. Terry has an outside short of going by the third round.

It’s also possible that the state JC champion could produce the top pick again, as happened in 2009, when righthander Brett Wallach pitched Orange Coast to the title on his way to becoming a third-round pick. Ohlone won the state title this year, mainly on the strength of sophomore lefthander Roberto Padilla, who went 4-0, 1.01 in six post-season appearances, and allowed just 12 hits in 36 innings. He already was one of the state’s top 2-3 JC prospects and may have elevated his stock even further with his stellar performance.

The marginal talent level overall in the junior colleges is somewhat in keeping with the depressed state of baseball generally at that level, as the serious budget crunch in California that has impacted state and government agencies over the last year included a mandated, across-the-board cutback of eight games from the schedule of all junior-college teams.

The theme of the 2010 California high-school crop has been pitching. Depending on signability, as many as a dozen prep arms could be drafted in the top three rounds.

Unlike many years, when California pitchers are among the most polished in the country, there seems to be an unusually large number of multi-sport/multi-position prospects among pitchers at the high-school level. There are numerous examples of fresh, projectable arms in the state, with the flip side being that they have less-developed command and secondary pitches.

Righthanders Taijuan Walker, Robby Rowland, Scott Frazier and Aaron Judge, in particular, typify this type of raw, projectable arm found in California’s high-school pitchers.

The 6-foot-4 Walker and 6-6 Rowland, the son of former major-league catcher Rich Rowland, are both high-level basketball players who could easily have pursued that sport in college. The 6-6 Frazier was primarily an outfielder until this spring, when he suddenly came out throwing 92-95 mph with outstanding late life on his fastball.

The 6-7, 230-pound Judge might be the best overall athlete of the lot, among the state’s elite baseball prospects. He had Division I interest in both basketball and football (wide receiver), and there are even teams who like his bat and power potential more than his low-90s arm.
 
IN A NUTSHELL
STRENGTH: Pitchers at college/high school levels.
WEAKNESS: Impact junior-college talent.
OVERALL RATING (1-to-5 scale): 5
 
BEST COLLEGE TEAM: Cal State Fullerton.
BEST JUNIOR-COLLEGE TEAM: Ohlone.
BEST HIGH-SCHOOL TEAM: Archbishop Mitty HS, San Jose.
 

PROSPECT ON THE RISE:Gary Brown, of, Cal State Fullerton. Can any prospect really be on the rise in over-exposed California? Brown’s offensive development has put him in that category; his speed is an impact tool.

PROSPECT ON THE DECLINE: High-school player with biggest signability issue. Fill in the blank in scout speak: “Player ‘X’ wants too much money, and will be going to school.” TBD over next two weeks.

WILD CARD:Austin Wilson, of, Harvard-Westlake HS, Los Angeles. Wilson may have the most reasons, from an academic standpoint, to attend college (Stanford), but his physical ceiling might represent the greatest temptation to big-league clubs.

 
BEST OUT-OF-STATE PROSPECT, California Connection: Tyler Waldron, rhp, Oregon State U. (Attended high school in Pilot Hill).
TOP 2011 PROSPECT: Gerrit Cole, rhp, UCLA.
TOP 2012 PROSPECT: Kenny Diekroeger, 3b/ss, Stanford.
 
HIGHEST DRAFT PICKS
Draft History(all 1^st round/1^st pick): Steve Chilcott, c, Antelope Valley HS, Lancaster (Mets, 1966); Tim Foli, ss, Notre Dame HS, Canoga Park (Mets, 1968); Jeff Burroughs, of, Wilson HS, Long Beach (Senators, 1969); Darryl Strawberry, of, Crenshaw HS, Los Angeles (Mets, 1980); Phil Nevin, 3b, Cal State Fullerton (Astros, 1992); Adrian Gonzalez, 1b, Eastlake HS, Chula Vista (Marlins, 2000); Delmon Young, of, Camarillo HS (Devil Rays, 2003); Matt Bush, ss/rhp, Mission Bay HS, San Diego (Padres, 2004); Stephen Strasburg, rhp, San Diego State U. (Nationals, 2009).
2006 Draft: Greg Reynolds, rhp, Stanford U. (Rockies/1^st round, 2^nd pick).
2007 Draft:Mike Moustakas, ss, Chatsworth HS (Royals/1^st round, 2^nd pick).
2008 Draft:Brian Matusz, lhp, U. of San Diego (Orioles/1^st round, 4^th pick).
2009 Draft:Stephen Strasburg, rhp, San Diego State U. (Nationals/1^st round, 1^st pick).
 
BEST TOOLS
Best Hitter:Christian Colon, ss, Cal State Fullerton.
Best Power:Austin Wilson, of, Harvard-Westlake HS, Los Angeles.
Best Speed:Gary Brown, of, Cal State Fullerton.
Best Defender:Tony Wolters, ss, Rancho Buena Vista HS, Vista.
Best Velocity:Jake Thompson, rhp, Long Beach State.
Best Breaking Stuff: Rob Rasmussen, lhp, UCLA.
 
TOP PROSPECTS

Full scouting reports available on players ranked on national Top 250 list (click on National Top 250)

 
GROUP ONE (Projected ELITE-Round Draft / Rounds 1-3)
1. DYLAN COVEY, rhp, Maranatha HS, Pasadena                                           National Top 250 (Rank 10)
Consistent strong performances all spring (6-0, 0.24, 3 SV, 16 BB vs. 116 SO), top half of first round arm