The 2008 June Amateur Free Agent Draft is almost upon us, so here’s my final stab at how the first round of the draft will shake out.
1. Tampa Bay Rays: Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA)
This pick is probably between Beckham and Buster Posey, another player frequently linked to the Rays. Beckham has been playing extremely well over the last two months, and has more franchise player potential than Posey, making him more of a true one-one.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
I’m still not convinced that the Pirates take Alvarez here, especially since they have stated they do not want to sign a player to a Major League contract, which limits their roster flexibility. However, there are still rumblings in the scouting industry that Alvarez is second on their list to Tim Beckham. Buster Posey could be their pick should money indeed pose an issue.
3. Kansas City Royals: Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS (FL)
If Alvarez slips to this spot the Royals would likely jump on him, but reportedly they’re prepared to take Hosmer if he’s not. This signing will likely go down to the August 15th deadline, so Royals fans, be patient.
4. Baltimore Orioles: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego
After making a big splash with Matt Wieters last year, the Orioles have the opportunity to take the best pitcher on the board this year, a lefty to boot. Big, tall and strong, Matusz has had a very impressive college career and could soar through the minors.
5. San Francisco Giants: Buster Posey, C, Florida State.
The Giants will be incredibly happy to land Posey if the first four picks as I have them listed above shake out this way. They’re prepared to take a bat, and likely would turn to someone like Gordon Beckham or one of the college first basemen if Posey isn’t available.
6. Florida Marlins: Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS (CA)
There are some rumors floating around that the Marlins might already have a pre-draft deal in place with Skipworth, a player they have been watching closely all spring.
7. Cincinnati Reds: Gordon Beckham, SS, University of Georgia
The Reds are loaded with shortstops in their system, but many of them profile to play other positions at the next level. The Reds may be better off taking a pitcher like Aaron Crow here, however many of the teams at the top of the draft have expressed a desire to take advantage of the number of bats that will be available.
8. Chicago White Sox: Brett Wallace, 1B, Arizona State
The White Sox have been showing a lot of interest in slugging Sun Devil Brett Wallace all spring long, and like the Giants have made it pretty well known that they intend to add an impact hitter with their first pick. Gordon Beckham could be the pick should he make it past the Reds.
9. Washington Nationals: Yonder Alonso, 1B, University of Miami
Alonso’s name has been linked to the Nationals for weeks now, as his patient approach and budding power could prompt him to become the second college first baseman selected among the top nine overall picks.
10. Houston Astros: Aaron Crow, RHP, University of Missouri
The Astros are intent at adding a power arm at this spot, and they would be thrilled to have Crow make it here. Ethan Martin could be an option if Crow doesn’t make it that far, and don’t be surprised if they take a bat such as Brett Wallace or Justin Smoak.
11. Texas Rangers: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
Entering the season, not many people would have guessed that two college first basemen would be selected ahead of Smoak, but there’s word circling around that Smoak may be sliding a little bit. The Rangers reportedly are interested in Hosmer if he falls.
12. Oakland Athletics: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky
If Brett Wallace falls this far the A’s won’t bat an eye getting their player card up to the proverbial podium. Friedrich isn’t a bad plan B for the A’s, a team sure to take a college player of some type at this pick.
13. St. Louis Cardinals: Ethan Martin, RHP, Stephens County HS (GA)
The Cardinals the past several years have alternated between college pitchers and high school bats with their first pick, but they buck that trend here taking the first high school pitcher off the board.
14. Minnesota Twins: Casey Kelly, SS/RHP, Sarasota HS (FL)
Call this selection an educated guess. With several extra early picks and a history of making interesting selections based on financial ramifications, the Twins take Kelly knowing they can spread out his bonus over five-years given his status as a two-sport athlete.
15. Los Angeles Dodgers: Tim Melville, RHP, Holt HS (MO)
As I noted in my last projection, the Dodgers clearly love taking prep pitchers from the Midwest, and Tim Melville may be a perfect fit for the type of players they annually add to their system as well as being a guy that could move up just as quickly as Chad Billingsley did.
16. Milwaukee Brewers: Brett Lawrie, 3B, Brookwood SS (British Columbia)
Few teams play their cards as close to the vest as the Brewers do, but it is known that they have shown interest in prep hitters such as Brett Lawrie and Anthony Hewitt, as well as prep pitchers such as Ethan Martin.
17. Toronto Blue Jays: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane
The Jays will keep their fingers crossed that one of Brett Wallace or Brett Lawrie makes it this far. Since neither does in my projection, they take a college arm that a month or two ago was expected to be off the board well before the 17th overall selection.
18. New York Mets: Jason Castro, C, Stanford
Castro would be a good fit for the Mets, a system in need of adding more impact bats while also fitting a glaring need for talent behind the plate.
19. Chicago Cubs: Aaron Hicks, OF/RHP, Wilson HS (CA)
It’s hard to get a read on the direction the Cubs will take with this selection, but Hicks would be a fine addition to their system. Hicks has expressed the desire to be drafted as a hitter, but even if he isn’t able to make the necessary adjustments to succeed, the Cubs could always switch him back to a pitcher to take advantage of his powerful right arm.
20. Seattle Mariners: Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State
Scheppers certainly is a huge wild card in this year’s draft, but the Mariners reportedly have been very interested in several powerful college pitchers including Scheppers, Ryan Perry, Andrew Cashner and Brett Hunter. If Scheppers arm clears their medical staff, don’t be surprised to see this pick happen.
21. Detroit Tigers: Joshua Fields, RHP, University of Georgia
Welcome to the first immediate need pick of the 2008 draft. For the first time in three years the Tigers may actually take a player that they can sign within a matter of days, and Fields repertoire may allow him to reach Detroit quickly.
22. New York Mets: Jemile Weeks, 2B, University of Miami
Adding Weeks and Castro would give the Mets two talented and relatively polished college bats that could move quickly in a system that was thinned out considerably after dealing a prospect package to land Johan Santana last offseason.
23. San Diego Padres: Ike Davis, 1B, Arizona State
The Padres are one of those teams that you can pencil in a college player as their pick. While their system has a nice collection of prospects from pitchers to outfielders and infielders, Davis would give the organization a big bat to look forward to in a couple of years.
24. Philadelphia Phillies: Anthony Hewitt, IF/OF, Salisbury School (CT)
Hewitt would make sense for the Phillies, a team that isn’t afraid of taking on a high-risk, high-reward prep talent, and Hewitt is arguably the most athletic player available in this year’s draft even if his bat is on the raw side and future destination defensively is yet to be determined.
25. Colorado Rockies: Andrew Cashner, RHP, TCU
The Rockies have been selecting power college arms the past few years, and Cashner would be a good fit for them at this point in the draft. Cashner could go much higher given his success this year as a closer, even if most seem to think he’ll begin his pro career as a starter.
26. Arizona Diamondbacks: Ryan Perry, RHP, University of Arizona
This pick kind of follows the D-Backs M.O. the past few years, with an interest in hard-throwing pitchers, particularly from the college side of the game. Perry similar to current big-league Max Scherzer has a power arm, but it’s uncertain whether his future lies as a starter or out of the bullpen.
27. Minnesota Twins: Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills HS (CA)
The Twins definitely love taking toolsy outfielders early in the draft, and after taking an infielder with the first of their two first-round picks, Collier get the call here. The Twins seem poised to add a few bats to their system early, as Kelly (is he’s drafted as a shortstop) and Collier would accomplish that.
28. New York Yankees: David Cooper, 1B, Cal-Berkeley
A system that is definitely deep in pitching, the Yankees may be looking to add a potential impact bat to their system in a year that favors hitters. They take advantage of the glut of first baseman by taking David Cooper here, who may be in place to replace Jason Giambi and follow a long line of sweet-swinging lefty-hitting first-sackers.
29. Cleveland Indians: Jake Odorizzi, Highland HS (IL)
The Indians have selected a college player with their first pick the past six years after taking a pair of prep pitchers in the 2001 draft that never panned out. They break that streak this year as the prep pitching depth at this pick is definitely favorable to them to a system that needs to add more, high-impact arms.
30. Boston Red Sox: Matt Marquis, SS/OF,Immaculata HS (NJ)
Before last year, the Red Sox had taken four straight hitters with their first pick in the draft. South Carolina shortstop Reese Havens is a popular name here, but no first-round projection is complete without a complete surprise to throw out there for discussion.
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.