The draft is a week away, and I thought it may be a good time to identify a few key topics that are likely to play a part of what players are selected where and by what teams.
Prep Pitching and Two-way Talents
The biggest topic to me as draft day approaches is who will be the first high school pitcher selected, and will that player be universally considered a pitcher down the road, or will that player be among the numerous two-way talents whose skills are being debated as to whether they fit best on the mound or at the plate.
Tim Melville and Gerrit Cole entered the spring scouting season as the top two prep pitching prospects. Melville has been slow to show why he was such a promising future star last summer, but he has started to heat up as the weather has improved in the upper Midwest. Cole’s arm strength has never been in question, but signability and other issues pushed him down draft boards earlier this spring, only to bounce back up when he reminded scouts that he has no problems toying with triple digits.
The first prep pitcher selected may very well be one of Aaron Hicks, Casey Kelly or Ethan Martin, players that could star in centerfield, at shortstop or at third base respectively. Most two-way players (those that don’t throw left-handed at least) seem to try and prove themselves as hitters and positional prospects first before conceding to the mound, as the competitive spirit usually leads most athletes to preferring life as an everyday player.
And since I brought up the left-handed issue of two-way players, keep in mind that the Dodgers selection of James Loney as a hitter still looks as one of the most astute picks of the last five to seven years. The White Sox took Ryan Sweeney the year after Loney (2003) as an outfielder despite Sweeney’s ability to throw in the mid-90s as a left-handed pitcher. That means it isn’t an absolute lock that Anthony Gose gets drafted as a pitcher just because he throws in the mid-90s given his overall athletic ability.
Regardless of who is taken where and as a pitcher or hitter, the 2008 draft may mirror the 2005 draft in which the first prep pitcher selected, Chris Volstad, didn’t go off the board until the 16th overall pick.
Shortstop Demand
A similar trend may carry over to the shortstop position, despite the fact that two (Tim and Gordon Beckham) may go among the top 10 overall selections. Depending on the destination of Casey Kelly, a talented two-way star that has the added obstacle of being a quarterback recruit for the University of Tennessee, there may not be a true shortstop drafted among the next 30-40 overall selected.
Most of the top prospects at shortstop are believed to be best at other positions, from Reese Havens to Anthony Hewitt to Ryan Flaherty to Tyler Ladendorf. This may increase the value of players such as Niko Vasquez and Jordy Mercer in the eyes of scouting directors, players that have a good chance to stick at one of the more demanding positions on the baseball diamond.
Outfield Supply vs. Demand
Since every big-league team has three outfield spots to fill on their everyday lineup card, along with a few backup spots and 15-20 spots to fill at the minor league level, look for some outfielders to be drafted earlier than expected on draft day, especially since it’s the one position that is notably thin.
Prep outfielders Zach Collier and Jay Austin picked a good year to enjoy a break-out season. Eric Thames also picked a very good year to put all of the pieces of his game together. Obviously all three have helped their prospective professional careers immensely just by having the seasons they have had, but since timing is everything, being at the right place at the right time in essence could be the difference of hundreds of thousands of dollars for this trio of talented young hitters.
Representation & Commitment
This certainly isn’t a new topic, but one that seems to intensify more and more with each and every passing year.
By representation of course Scott Boras is the popular name associated with players that typically require more money than most, but one big thing we’re seeing with the implementation of the universal start date is that more and more players are seeking bigger and bigger dollars to sign and go pro, regardless of who is advising them.
Players that are making it more well known that they’re willing to sign for slot value, almost regardless of where they are taken as long as it is within a certain round range, are moving further and further up draft boards as many teams are still looking for players that want to begin their professional careers sooner rather than later.
By commitment of course I mean a high school player’s commitment to college, as some commitments historically have proven to be more difficult to deal with than others. Stanford is the most notable, with North Carolina, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Arizona State proving to be tougher commitments to deal with than most.
That doesn’t mean the players that have committed to these schools can’t be signed, nor does it mean that players that haven’t signed with these schools are going to easily sign for slot value, but it is important to remember that more highly ranked high school players honor their college commitments than you may think, and when you start to see these players fall come draft day, it usually has nothing to do with their talent on the field.
The bigger question of course is whether or not teams will continue to give into these financial demands. Last year teams showed that for the most part they were not willing to let some of the more notable talents get away as the August 15th deadline approached, a deadline that was originally put in place to give teams more negotiating power. With more and more teams straying from Major League Baseball’s recommended slotting system, many expect that trend to continue this year.
First Base
By far the crop of first basemen available for the 2008 draft is the deepest and most talent rich position available. Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso and Eric Hosmer could all be among the top 10 overall selections, and there are a few other guys such as Brett Wallace, Ike Davis and David Cooper that could also sneak in the first round. Allan Dykstra and Shane Peterson also figure to go in the early rounds.
You may see a team take a player such as Brett Wallace sooner than expected, somewhat following the lead of the Brewers a year ago when they took Matt LaPorta with the seventh overall pick. Brett Wallace has been connected with the Chicago White Sox with the eighth overall pick time and time again, as Wallace has done nothing but put up incredible offensive numbers ever since stepping on Arizona State’s campus.
However, based on pure need, there probably aren’t going to be too many teams that are looking to add a first baseman early. Most teams ideally are still going to want to add a more well-rounded player, but this year’s first-base class is going to make it very tough on scouting directors when they get to the point of deciding whether or not they want to pass on such a true, impact bat.
And this may very well signal a trend that more and more teams, “Moneyball” influenced or not, are starting to place a greater emphasis on a player’s true ability to hit versus their future potential based on tools.
Fast Risers
I don’t remember a recent draft class that has as many players that have soared up draft charts this spring to be considered legitimate first and second round picks this year. Zach Collier and Jay Austin were already mentioned above, and joining them from the high school crop are Jaff Decker, Anthony Hewitt, Brett Lawrie, Jake Odorizzi, Tyler Sample, Ross Seaton and Niko Vasquez.
Joining them from the college ranks are Scott Bittle, Andrew Cashner, Stephen Fife, Bryan Price and Zach Stewart.
Most of the college players on the rise are projected short-relievers (profiled below), but still this could be in direct relation to the point made above about how some teams may be looking to add players to their system that are willing to sign sooner rather than later. A player that is on the rise that initially wasn’t dreaming about big-time, first-round money may be more inclined to sign quickly for slot value than a player that has struggled somewhat that entered the spring thinking about six-to-seven figures.
Since the fast-risers always offer a surprise or two on draft day, keep an eye on Zach Collier and Casey Kelly in particular, both of whom are generating considerable interest from a few teams drafting among the top 10 overall selections. Anthony Hewitt and Brett Lawrie could also go a lot higher than where people expect.
Extra Picks
There aren’t too many teams this year that have a handful of extra, early compensatory selections, at least not like last year when the Blue Jays, Giants, Nationals, Padres and Rangers were poised to make a lot of noise on draft day given the number of early picks they owned.
The Brewers by far are in the best position to have an impressive haul of talent with six picks among the top 62 overall selections, but similar to the teams listed above, the Brewers are also the most likely to reach for a player that may not be universally rated as a first or second round pick. Once again signability comes into play, as additional picks means there is the need for additional monetary funds to get those picks in the fold.
The Twins have an additional first-round pick and the first pick in the sandwich round after losing Torii Hunter, and signability is definitely expected to play a factor with their selections. The Padres have added a pair of supplemental first-rounders, and are expected to stick near slot value.
On the flip side you have teams that have lost picks due to their free agent activity and where they stand in regards to spending more money later to try and sign a player that has fallen due to signability. The Angels are the most obvious team that fits this bill, having signed the aforementioned Torii Hunter, and they are also a team that has been known to make a splash signing some of their higher profile draft picks to big money deals in the first round and beyond.
The biggest difference in the 2008 draft from the 2007 draft may be the length of the supplemental first round, down to 16 overall picks from the 34 picks it boasted a year ago. In regards to signing bonuses, that means the teams picking early in the second round will be spending more than teams in a similar position were spending a year ago, although the 2007 draft may have been a one-year anomaly in that the draft compensation rules had not completely caught up to the overall changes to the draft that were made with the last change to the collective bargaining agreement.
In Closing
I’ll finish with the depth of college closers, a specialized group that seems to get bigger and better every year. Just a few years ago, college pitchers that could throw in the mid-90s with wicked breaking stuff were still groomed as starters. Now, more and more college teams are converting these project short relievers to that very role during their college careers, as the importance of the late inning stopper has extended from the big-leagues to the minors to the college game.
Joshua Fields and Andrew Cashner are locks to go in the first round, while Ryan Perry Bryan Price and Zach Stewart could all sneak into the late first-round or supplemental first-round. Scott Bittle, Josh Lindblom, Daniel Schelerth, Bryan Shaw, Aaron Weatherford and Kyle Weiland could also be taken as early as the supplemental round, while Carlos Gutierrez, Brett Hunter, Zach Putnam and Cody Satterwhite could be in that mix as well, despite spending at least half of their college careers as starters.
If you blink you might just see a high school closer or left-handed specialist taken in the first round. That may seem like a long-shot at this point in time, but it wasn’t too long ago that taking a college closer early was virtually unheard of.
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.