Last year I profiled the 15 teams that were picking in the first half of the first round of the draft, breaking down not so much who they were going to take, but who they were more likely to take given their history coupled with how many extra (or less) early picks they had based on free agent compensatory selections.
I will do so again this year, offering an overview of each team’s drafting history, the current status of their organization and the names of some players that could be natural fits for the top 15 selections.
1. Tampa Bay Rays
A new look and team name has the 2008 Rays thinking about bigger and better things in the future, as for the first time in their existence they managed to be five games over .500. That’s not something to be proud of, but it is a nice step in the right direction.
This is magnified when you consider how long they have sat atop the raw draft order, as it seems that the talent they have been selecting early is finally starting to pay dividends. It is important to note that they haven’t been afraid to open up their pocketbooks to take the players that are considered the best available regardless of how much it took to get them in the fold.
So don’t expect money to restrict them from taking who they view is the best available player.
Of course, everyone has a different opinion on who might be the best available player, and while Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez entered the season as the number one draft-eligible prospect, the Rays reportedly are looking elsewhere, with Florida State catcher Buster Posey receiving the most interest. Some may question whether or not Posey is an impact player that would be worthy of the first overall pick, but catchers that can hit are not easy to come by, and while teams don’t typically draft for immediate need, he certainly would fill a gaping hole in the Rays current lineup.
The team does not have any additional compensatory picks, nor did they lose any picks. They haven’t shown a noticeable preference drafting high school players or college player, but they have had more luck drafting and developing prep pitchers than most teams in recent years given the success of lefty Jacob McGee and righties Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson. With the deepest and most talent-laden minor league system in all of baseball, the Rays should be in a great position to supplement that talent since they own the first pick in every non-supplemental round.
Projected Pick: Buster Posey
2. Pittsburgh Pirates
I noted last week that the Pirates are somewhat of a wildcard when it comes to the draft, as they, unlike the Rays, have not opened up their pocketbooks to draft and sign players in recent years that likely would have been a better fit for their system.
Look no further than Matt Wieters in last year’s draft. The Pirates system is growing rather thin, and they clearly have had their struggles at the big league level for more than a decade, not recording a winning season since 1992. Passing on Wieters wasn’t a mistake in itself, but it did place more pressure on Clemson lefty Daniel Moskos to succeed.
The Pirates are under new leadership led by GM Neil Huntington, and Greg Smith is in his first year serving as the Buccos scouting director. It remains unclear whether this group will be hindered financially by ownership like previous regime’s were, and we will likely learn a lot about just how serious the Pirates are about their long-term future success on draft day.
Pedro Alvarez would be the impact bat the Pirates system sorely needs, but even if they don’t go with Alvarez this is a good year to nab an impact bat at the top of the draft with big bats such as Justin Smoak and Gordon Beckham available. Tim Beckham would also be a solid pick, who could give the Pirates a cornerstone player and face of the franchise for years to come.
The Pirates did not gain or lose any picks due to free agent compensation, and like the Rays could be in a good position to give their system a much-needed lift since they own the second overall pick in every round.
Projected Pick: Tim Beckham
3. Kansas City Royals
Under the guidance of General Manager Dayton Moore, the Royals have been a lot more aggressive with players in the draft that were perceived to be difficult signs due to their lofty bonus aspirations. They have selected a Scott Boras client in each of their past two years with the first and second overall picks respectively in Luke Hochevar and Mike Moustakas, and word out of Kansas City may lead one to believe they’re prepared to do the same this year.
Given the number of potential impact caliber bats the Royals have, one may think that the team may be thinking about pitching, and at this spot would likely have their dibs on the first pitcher to be taken off the board. However, their minor league system is actually stronger with arms, with Moustakas representing the only real impact bat they have at the top of their prospect list. They could very well be poised to take someone like Pedro Alvarez despite the presence of Moustakas and even Alex Gordon and Billy Butler at the big-league level, or they could address a need for talent up the middle of the diamond with players also mentioned with the Rays and Pirates in both Tim and Gordon Beckham and even Buster Posey should he not be the Rays pick.
The Royals did pick up one sandwich pick after losing Type B free agent David Riske last offseason, and did not lose any of their own selections.
Projected Pick: Pedro Alvarez
4. Baltimore Orioles
Similar to the Pirates, prior to last year it was difficult to gauge just how serious the Orioles were about rebuilding through their farm system given how much their ownership dictated who they could take and how much they could spend.
That wasn’t an issue a year ago when they took not only Matt Wieters in the first round, but also Jake Arrieta in the fifth round. They dealt both Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard in the offseason for prospect packages, which further signals a change in the team’s overall direction that is now clearly looking towards the future.
Before having Wieters fall in their lap last year, rumors swirled about the Orioles targeting a left-handed college pitcher between Daniel Moskos and Ross Detwiler. If that is still the case, they may be in the perfect situation to take San Diego lefty Brian Matusz, arguably the safest and most polished pitcher available.
As I also mentioned last week, should the Orioles pick up where they left off in last year’s draft, they might also be a potential home for Alvarez should he fall past the top three picks.
Having avoided the temptation to try to fix their holes via free agency, the Orioles managed to save all of their own picks, which is the fourth pick overall in every round, and if they continue to boast a larger than normal signing budget, they are a team that could take a player or two that falls with one of their later picks if they don’t do so in round one.
Projected Pick: Brian Matusz
5. San Francisco Giants
When the Giants were good not to long ago, they weren’t shy about signing free agents, almost intentionally doing so to rid themselves of their first-round pick.
The past two years their first pick was the 10th overall selection, and last year they had two additional first-round picks and three sandwich picks despite losing their second, third and fourth rounders due to free agent signings. They proved that money was not an object, signing all of their picks to roughly slot value, and overall when it comes to player development they have shown the willingness to spend, best exemplified by dropping over two million dollars on Dominican slugger Angel Villalona.
Quickly infusing talent into the system via the draft and international free agent market is something the Giants have needed to do for a long time, with an aging squad that has been catching up to them for years. The organization does have a pretty good track record drafting and developing arms from Tim Lincecum to Matt Cain, and now that Barry Bonds is no longer in the picture, this is a team that sorely needs to add more impact positional talent.
Because of that I think Pedro Alvarez falls no further should he make it to the Giants. If he doesn’t, I think Justin Smoak, Gordon Beckham or even Kyle Skipworth would make a lot of sense to this team. But I’m also not going to rule out a pitcher given their success developing them, and Aaron Crow could give them a third electric arm within a few short years, giving the Giants a rotation that would be very tough to beat.
The Giants gained a supplemental first-round pick by losing third baseman Pedro Feliz, but gave up their own second-rounder after signing centerfielder Aaron Rowand.
Projected Pick: Aaron Crow
6. Florida Marlins
The Marlins are currently the hottest team in baseball, as they for the third time in their short existence appear to be stockpiling young talent after stripping down and starting over after both of their World Series championships in 1997 and 2003. They dealt both Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis this past offseason, which may have signaled more cost-cutting measures, but they countered that recently by announcing that they are close to signing young phenom Hanley Ramirez to a six-year contract extension. That coupled with a new ballpark could mean that the Marlins success early this year is no fluke, and they are on yet another upswing.
This is a team that for the most part has adhered to the pre-determined slot values, and also shows a preference for high-ceiling high school talent. They have always done a good job developing talent from within, and supplementing that talent through shrewd trades.
With a wealth of pitching currently creeping closer and closer to the big-leagues, although starting pitching is currently their biggest weakness at the Major League level, I think this is an organization that will be in a very good position to take advantage of some of the bats that could fall to this spot, whether it be prep catcher Kyle Skipworth or college sluggers such as Justin Smoak and Gordon Beckham.
The Marlins did not gain or lose any picks due to free agent compensation.
Projected Pick: Kyle Skipworth
7. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds entered the 2008 season as a darkhorse in the National League Central division, and while things haven’t gone as well as they hoped so far this year, they still have done a good job assembling more and more young talent that would lead you to believe the Reds are going to be legitimate contenders in the next year or two.
They have been showing an increased emphasis in player development with the willingness to spend big money to sign top level talent. They recently flew under the radar to snatch talented Dominican infielder Juan Duran for two million dollars, and while they haven’t exceeded slot values much in recent years, at least not since the 2000 draft, they also don’t go on the cheap either.
Their system is full of athletes at nearly every position, and offense never seems to be a problem for the Reds, but they also have developed some high impact arms in recent years in Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto.
Their system is deep with shortstops, but many of them probably project to play at other positions by the time they reach the big leagues, which could make Gordon Beckham a target since he seems more likely to stick at short. Aaron Crow would also make a ton of sense if he were to fall this far, as could either Tanner Scheppers or Shooter Hunt. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see the Reds reach for a college closer such as Joshua Fields or Andrew Cashner in an attempt to get them up to the majors more quickly to complement their growing talent base, even if that didn’t work so well with Ryan Wagner in 2003.
The Reds lost their second-round pick due to the signing of Type A free agent Francisco Cordero.
Projected Pick: Gordon Beckham
8. Chicago White Sox
Kenny Williams certainly works like no other General Manager in the game. He’s not afraid to trade prospects for proven talent, but is also just as likely to switch gears and trade proven talent for younger players as soon as he recognizes that his team isn’t in position to contend.
It took a lot to acquire Nick Swisher from the A’s, as the White Sox system was already thinning out considerably. They lack impact level talent, and in particular need to find a way to get some big bats into their organization.
Reportedly, that is exactly how the team plans to use their first-round pick, with Williams himself on the road checking out big-time college sluggers such as Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso and Brett Wallace.
And the White Sox have taken a college player with their first pick the past six years. They’re like most of the other teams listed above in that they don’t spend above and beyond on draft picks, but they also don’t go on the cheap either.
With an eye on competing in the incredibly tough American League Central division, the team not only made a bold trade for Nick Swisher, but they also forfeited their second-round pick by signing set-up man Scott Linebrink.
Projected Pick: Justin Smoak
9. Washington Nationals
I think everyone knows that the Nationals have a ways to go to get their big-league team in a position to compete with the Braves, Mets, Phillies and even the Marlins, but the player development and scouting departments are in place to succeed, and they’re coming off an extremely successful draft in which they were able to add a little bit of everything to their system.
They did so with a very large signing budget, not only because they had to sign three additional early picks in the top two rounds, but they also got creative in how they were able to add projected Stanford recruit Jack McGeary in the fold.
Money wasn’t much of an issue for Mike Rizzo while he was in Arizona, and while he’s not the team’s scouting director, his history does show that he’s not afraid to negotiate with players that are perceived to be a difficult sign.
The bottom line is that the organization could use a little bit of everything, and the Nationals can be patient with this pick to take who they truly believe is the best available player, whether that be someone like Eric Hosmer who would fit under the difficult sign category, or one of the top college arms that projects to be available at this point.
Unlike last year, the Nationals did not gain, or lose, any compensatory selections.
Projected Pick: Eric Hosmer
10. Houston Astros
It’s always more difficult to project who a team may or may not take anytime there is a new leadership group put into place. Bobby Heck joins the Astros and will oversee his first draft as the team’s Scouting Director.
Things definitely needed to change in Houston, and while there are rumored issues with a meddling owner dictating who and how much the team should spend, this is a team that forfeited their first and second round picks due to their free agent activity and also managed not to sign their third and fourth round selections. That’s a pretty good recipe for future disaster by losing such an opportunity to add impact level talent to a system in desperate need for it.
Heck joins the organization after serving as a crosschecker for the Brewers, and if he learned anything from Jack Zduriencik it is the need to draft the best player available at every opportunity.
On paper, the Astros lineup is somewhat set for the next few years, and they do have some solid young arms that are either already contributing at the big-league level or are close to doing so. The draft at this spot definitely favors the college arms that are available, from starters Tanner Scheppers, Shooter Hunt and Christian Friedrich to the aforementioned closers that may sneak into this part of the draft, Fields and Cashner.
While the Astros did make some rather big trades for notable big-league players such as Miguel Cabrera and Jose Valverde, they avoided making too big of a splash on the free agent market, and therefore retained all of their draft picks. They even managed to pick up a sandwich pick by losing Trever Miller to the Rays.
Projected Pick: Shooter Hunt
11. Texas Rangers
There are several teams on this list that I could see staying here for years to come, and others that are taking the necessary steps to make sure that their stay within the worst 15 teams in baseball is as short as possible.
The Rangers are one team that is acquiring an impressive group of young players in an attempt to build for the future instead of the present. I personally feel they still have a long way to go, but they had a fairly nice start to their re-commitment to player development given the amount of talent they receive for Mark Teixeira and the quality of talent they took in last year’s draft given the number of extra, early picks they had. They showed the willingness to get all of those picks in the fold, and they also have increased their presence on the international market, meaning they’re not afraid to spend money.
Some of that talent is getting pretty close to contributing, another good chunk of talent is in the lower levels of the system. The team may be looking to bridge that talent with some relatively polished college talent that could step in this year and already be a step ahead of some of their more notable prep picks from a year ago. Meaning, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rangers be among the darkhorse candidates to take a projected closer at this spot if one of the more polished college starters (Hunt, Scheppers, Christian Friedrich) doesn’t fall to this spot.
Unlike last year, the Rangers do not have any extra comp picks, and they didn’t lose any either.
Projected Pick: Tanner Scheppers
12. Oakland Athletics
You can pretty much figure on a college player with this pick, so this one is a little easier to project. You also know they’re probably not going to spend a lot of money or exceed slot value by that much, although this has to be one of the first years in a long time that they do not own any compensatory selections for free agents lost.
The A’s made an interesting move in the offseason, seemingly conceding the season by trading away Dan Haren several years before he was slated to become a free agent. They also traded Nick Swisher to the White Sox, and received an impressive group of young players that a few years from now may help A’s fans forget all about both Haren and Swisher.
One of the high power arms of Fields or Cashner may make sense to go here, but I think they’ll be more tempted by the possibility of one of the top college starters or one of the top college first basemen to fall to this spot. Christian Friedrich and Yonder Alonso make a ton of sense; Friedrich given his curveball comparisons to Barry Zito, Alonso given his extremely patient approach at the plate.
Projected Pick: Yonder Alonso
13. St. Louis Cardinals
Not that it has been intentional, but the Cardinals have alternated between high school hitters and college pitchers the past five years. If that holds, they’re up for a college pitcher having selected Peter Kozma with their first-round pick a year ago.
The college pitchers the Cardinals have selected in the early rounds in recent years have been interesting in that most of them may project best as closers. There are plenty of power arms, and they’re currently being groomed as starters, but it remains to be seen whether or not they will stay there.
That isn’t necessarily a bad thing for the Cardinals, since they do seem to have a knack for turning relievers into solid, reliable starters as shown with Todd Wellemeyer and Braden Looper.
None of the Cardinals picks in recent years have been particularly aggressive, as they don’t go out of their way to overspend on a player, but they don’t go out of their way to be cheap either. Despite having at least one extra, early pick in the draft in each of the past three years, a trend that will continue into this year earning a comp pick after losing Troy Percival, the Cardinals farm system has never been known to be particularly strong, yet they do a pretty good job procuring their own players from within while also using that talent to acquire players from other organizations.
If the Cardinals don’t continue to go after the power arms they seem to covet, with Andrew Cashner as a perfect fit, they could go after a wealth of high school players that are starting to look mighty tempting at this point, otherwise Christian Friedrich is the safe route to go.
Projected Pick: Christian Friedrich
14. Minnesota Twins
If it’s possible to look ahead to one team, prepare yourself for a surprise and still get surprised when you hear a team’s pick, there’s a good chance the Twins are involved.
And that’s not necessarily a bad thing, as the Twins scouting and player development machine has been tried and true for over a decade, with only the Braves scouting department coming close when it comes to lasting stability.
You know a few things for sure when it comes to the Twins: They’re not going to go out of their way to spend a lot of money on a draft pick, they like big tools from high school players, they typically don’t obsess over power and they hold by the old mantra that you select high school hitters and college pitchers.
They haven’t taken too many pitchers early in the recent years, and Matt Garza (2005) was the last pitcher they took in the first round. They did receive a wealth of talent back from the Mets in exchange for Johan Santana, and already had some nice arms in their system to look forward to.
In regards to the present talent they have among hitters, you would think that the team is more than set with outfielders, but again, this is a team known to surprise people more than a few times. They are thin on the infield if you’re looking at pure needs.
Some of the best high school talent at this spot is heavy on the pitching side, but Aaron Hicks is the type of player that the Twins may prefer as a hitter, despite the aforementioned glut in the outfield. Another two-way star such as Casey Kelly would give the Twins the added benefit of spreading his bonus over five years since he qualifies as a two-sport star, and the Twins may also be intrigued by Ethan Martin’s power at the plate as a third baseman even if he is drawing more attention this spring as a pitcher.
Money will definitely come into play for the Twins since they have an extra first-round pick and the first pick in the sandwich round due to the loss of Torii Hunter.
Projected Pick: Casey Kelly
15. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers like the Twins, Marlins and Rays on this list have been steadily acquiring and developing high level talent in their system for several years now. The Dodgers are more and more starting to resemble the teams when they were one of the best franchises in all of baseball in the 70s and 80s thanks to an incredible wealth of homegrown talent.
And under the direction of Logan White, just like you can count on the A’s taking a college player you can almost bet that the Dodgers will take a high school star, with even added odds on that prep player being a pitcher.
Money usually isn’t a problem for the Dodgers, although they clearly couldn’t get Luke Hochevar in the fold a few years ago. High school pitching is definitely a strength at this point in the draft, from the two-way stars mentioned above such as Aaron Hicks, Ethan Martin and Casey Kelly as well as Daniel Webb, Ross Seaton and Brett DeVall.
The Dodgers do have a track record of taking high school pitchers in the nation’s heartland, which may make guys such as Tim Melville, Alex Meyer and Jake Odorizzi natural fits.
This year’s draft marks the first time since 2003 that the Dodgers do not have any additional, early picks.
Projected Pick: Jake Odorizzi
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.