One of my biggest pet peeves when having conversations about baseball, the draft, scouting and player development in general is when people refer to the draft as a “crap-shoot.” This is often in reference to first-round picks that have not lived up to their lofty expectations.

I think most readers of the Perfect Game family of networks don’t agree with this expression, knowing how much time, money and passion is invested into scouting and player development. Not just from the vantage point of the teams that invest in young players, but also for the families of the players involved as well as institutions like Perfect Game USA whose dedication is to giving young ballplayers every chance to showcase their skills in front of as many scouts, college recruiters and other vested interests as possible.

Plus, the term “crap-shoot” suggests that teams could pick wildly and blindly and have just as much success finding future stars than if they spent as much time as they do to try and identify future big-league talent.

Players such as Mike Piazza are often brought up, a 62^nd round pick that people can easily point to as a player that snuck through the cracks. But I would argue that Piazza is the exception, not the rule, as there are few players that are brought up as frequently in such conversations as Piazza is.

And of course players are going to emerge as late round picks. If teams didn’t feel they could find talent in the later rounds of the draft, the draft wouldn’t go 50 rounds deep and longer in past years.

With another mid-summer classic come and gone, I wanted to try and determine just where these stars came from.

I decided to look at all of the All-Star representatives from the past 10 years, from 1998-2007, to show just where these players come from. I should point out that I realize that simply looking at All-Stars doesn’t give a completely accurate idea of where big-league talent is procured from, as not all of the best players participate, particularly since every team is required to have a representative, but over a 10 years span the best players in baseball should have had at least one appearance in the mid-summer classic.

The Numbers

From 1998 to 1997 there were a total of 314 different All-Stars. Players that made multiple appearances were only accounted for once.

Of those 314 players, 74 were non-drafted free agents, representing 24 percent of the total. For the purposes of this discussion, I’m not going to analyze this talent pool too much, but it should be noted just how much non-drafted free agents have an impact on the game of baseball.

While the majority of these players are international free agents, which includes imports from Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and Japan, there also a few instances of players that were eligible to be drafted but simply weren’t. Larry Walker, Andy Ashby and Mike Bordick are examples of such players. All three again are the exception more than the rule, but their success still exhibits that talent can be found any and everywhere.

So that leaves 240 All-Star representatives that were drafted, 76% of the talent pool.

Of those 240 players, 105 are pitchers, and 135 are hitters. The average draft position of the pitchers is 7.56, with the average draft position of the hitters being 7.22. Overall the average draft position is 7.37.

89 of the 240 drafted All-Stars were selected in the first round, which represents 28 percent of the total number of All-Stars, and 37% of the total number of All-Stars that were drafted. That is more than a quarter of the players overall, and more than a third of the total number of players drafted.

Over a 10-year span, this is roughly nine first rounders per year, which would mean in theory that roughly one out of three first round picks is a future All-Star.

When you add in the 22 second-rounders into the equation you have 46 percent of the All-Stars that were drafted. Add in the 38 third through fifth rounders and you find 62 percent of the total number of All-Stars that were drafted. With the 32 fifth through 10^th round selections you have 75 percent of the total number of All-Stars that were drafted.

While it is impressive that a quarter of the total number of All-Stars that were drafted the past 10 years were drafted after the 10^th round, I think this exercise easily shows that the talent at the top is much more likely to represent the All-Stars of the future.

And of course while scouts deserve more credit when they are able to find the late-round gems, I think this proves that the talent usually identified as the top draft-eligible talent is more likely to succeed, which in my mind is yet another reason why the draft, and scouting in general, is anything but a “crap-shoot.”

Perennial All-Stars

One thing this exercise doesn’t even tackle is the number of All-Star appearances, and the average total of players drafted in the first round versus those drafted in later round groupings. To do that, I would have to go back farther than the past 10 years, since many young All-Stars are just beginning their promising careers.

Of the drafted All-Stars, there quite a few former first-round picks whose faces are commonplace. Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Manny Ramirez, Ken Griffey Jr., Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire, Mike Mussina, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Gary Sheffield, Billy Wagner, Barry Larkin, Matt Williams, Nomar Garciaparra, Todd Helton and Lance Berkman are among these players. Just looking at the players whose names I compiled, I am fairly confident that the average number of All-Star appearances would be higher for those drafted in higher rounds, but don’t have the numbers to back me up, and again wouldn’t be able to do so of those that played the game over the last 10 years.

Another Classic

I’ve been talking about the Aflac All-American Classic the past couple of weeks now, and while we have yet to see a former Aflac All-American make the All-Star squad, it’s only a matter of time before that happens.

Since I’ve tossed out quite a few numbers, how about a few more?

During the past four drafts, the first four drafts that players from the classic were eligible, 29 of 120 first-round picks have played in the classic, nearly a quarter of those drafted. While that number doesn’t seem particularly high, it should be noted that many teams focus on college players early in the draft, not to mention that several former Aflac All-Americans, and high school players in general, fall further in the draft than their talent warrants, usually due to signability issues and/or their college commitments.

Still, one out of four is a pretty good number, and considered one out of four All-Stars is a former first-round pick, in a few years we should see a healthy number of Aflac All-Americans playing in the game.

Which of course means that if you’re a fan of the game, from top to bottom, you have no reason not to tune in.

The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA . Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.