Last week I assessed the talent base of the 10th through sixth worse teams in 2006 in an attempt to determine which of those teams had the best chance of making significant improvements during the 2007 season similar to the Detroit Tigers rise in 2006.
This week I will profile the five worst teams in 2006 to determine how their talent-base stacks up, and then rank the odds of each of those 10 worse teams based on the likelihood of a breakout season.
5. Baltimore Orioles (70-92 in 2006)
Veteran Talent Base: The Orioles don’t have a shortage of veterans, led by shortstop Miguel Tejada, who remains with the team despite constantly being brought up in trade rumors. Tejada remains one of the most productive shortstops in the game. His double-play partner, Brian Roberts, is one of the more dynamic offensive second basemen in all of Major League Baseball with his ability to hit for average, power and stolen base prowess.
Aubrey Huff and Jay Payton were brought in this offseason to add depth, and possibly serve as platoon mates with fellow veterans Kevin Millar, Melvin Mora and Jay Gibbons. Ramon Hernandez, who was brought in as a free agent during the 2005-06 offseason, had his best season in 2006.
The team discovered just this past week that starter Kris Benson will miss the season with a torn rotator cuff, an injury that not could only threaten his 2007 season, but his career. That injury will mean the O’s will rely more heavily on Jaret Wright, acquired this offseason from the New York Yankees, who has had his fair share of injuries throughout his career.
Free agent acquisitions Danys Baez, Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford will help stabilize the bullpen.
Young Talent Base: Nick Markakis was a Rookie of the Year candidate in 2006, as his polished approach allowed him to adjust to big-league ball without missing a beat. The Orioles expect even bigger and better things from the young slugger moving forward, and he could provide the one big bat the team needs.
Corey Patterson was a good pickup a year ago, as he was miscast by the Cubs as a leadoff hitter. He is one of the better defensive centerfielders in the game, and has game-changing speed.
The starting rotation features four promising young arms, one of whom has already established himself as one of the best young starters in the game: Erik Bedard. Daniel Cabrera, Adam Loewen and Hayden Penn represent the other three. Cabrera can blow his fastball by anyone, but he needs to learn to harness his power arsenal to avoid walking another 104 batters as he did a year ago. Loewen has front of the rotation stuff but inconsistent command, while Penn has been rocked in his 14 career appearances.
Despite the number of veteran bullpen acquisitions, 25-year old Chris Ray is the best of the bunch. His rookie campaign was largely overlooked a year ago, but made the loss of B.J. Ryan easy to swallow after Ray recorded 33 saves while posting a 2.73 ERA serving as the team’s closer.
Talent Moving Up: Outfielders Val Majewski and Jeff Fiorentino both were rewarded with a brief cup of coffee a year ago, but both are going to have a hard time making the big-league roster given the presence of Markakis, Patterson, Payton and Gibbons. Catcher/first baseman J.R. House will also have a hard time cracking the 25-man roster, and may carry his AAA comeback success in the Astros organization from last year to the Orioles AAA squad.
Right-handed pitchers Jeremy Guthrie, Jim Johnson and James Hoy will compete for a spot in the starting rotation during spring training. Hard-throwing righty Radhames Liz and crafty lefty Garrett Olson will be a phone call away at AAA, while 2000 first-round pick Beau Hale has done a nice job resurrecting his career after missing the 2003 and 2004 seasons due to injury.
Most of the team’s best talent competed at the A-level or lower a season ago.
Talent To Come: The Orioles have placed more emphasis on internal player development in recent years, and their overall talent base continues to improve. The fifth overall pick will help that cause. They didn’t help themselves however when they forfeited their second and third-round selections when they signed Baez and Bradford, as spending money and draft picks to improve the bullpen of a ballclub that will have a hard time competing in the American League East doesn’t speak of a team keeping the big picture in mind.
Assessment: Can you name the last team in to win the American League East division that aren’t named the New York Yankees? That’s right, it’s the Orioles, who took the division 10 years ago in 1997, thanks to a lineup consisting of Rafael Palmeiro, Roberto Alomar and Cal Ripken Jr., and a starting rotation highlighted by Jimmy Key, Scott Erickson and current Yankee Mike Mussina. Times have been tough for the Orioles ever since, and owner Peter Angelos hasn’t made it easy on whomever their general manager has been. The team has shown a re-dedication to player development the past few years, and they need to continue to add talent any way they can if they expect to become the next team to overthrow the Yankees from the top of the division.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95)
Veteran Talent Base: Infielder Freddy Sanchez enjoyed a career, breakout season, winning the National League batting title at the age of 28. Fellow infielder Jack Wilson is now more than two years removed from his own breakout season, however Wilson hasn’t done much at the plate since 2004, and needs to step forward if the Pirates are committed to him as their shortstop of the future.
Veteran starter Shawn Chacon will probably serve as the team’s fifth starter, as the rest of the team’s veteran presence is found in the bullpen with Damaso Marte and Salomon Torres. The Pirates have made it very clear for several years now that they intend to continue to build young until the find the right mix to help propel them to the top of the division.
Young Talent Base: Jason Bay is one of the best young hitters in all of baseball. He has flourished since the team acquired him from the Padres as part of the deal for Brian Giles, as he wasn’t given an everyday chance to perform until he was 25 years old.
First baseman Adam LaRoche, who is coming off of his own breakthrough campaign, was acquired this offseason to offer Bay some much-needed protection in the batting order. Powerful first baseman Brad Eldred and/or switch hitting utility man Ryan Doumit could give LaRoche some much needed days off against left-handed pitchers. Jose Castillo rounds out a relatively young infield.
While the infield is relatively set, the outfield outside of Bay is not. The team will look to Nate McClouth, Xavier Nady, Jody Gerut, Chris Duffy and Jose Bautista to fill center and right field.
Left-hander Zach Duke could serve as the team’s ace. He enjoyed a tremendous rookie season in 2005 before suffering a sophomore slump last year. There’s no reason to doubt he won’t pick up where he left off in ’05. Duke will be joined in the rotation by fellow lefties Paul Maholm and Tom Gorzelanny. Maholm isn’t flashy, but he gets the job done, and could be the second coming of Mark Redman, while Gorzelanny had an impressive rookie campaign.
Right-hander Ian Snell is expected to take one of the other rotation spots. The fifth spot could be snagged by Tony Armas Jr., whose young career has been plagued by recurring shoulder problems despite staying relatively healthy in 2006.
Talent Moving Up: The Pirates hope to have former first-round picks Bryan Bullington and John Van Benschoten healthy to open the season and at the AAA level, but their stars are fading quickly. Wardell Starling should also find himself in the AAA starting rotation.
Reliever Josh Sharpless had a brief callup late last season, and performed very well after having a great season at AAA. Cuban free agent signing Yoslan Herrera might also be in the mix for a big-league job, either at the back end of the rotation or in the bullpen, but the team may opt for him to polish his game at the AAA level to begin his professional career.
The team’s two best prospects, outfielder Andrew McCutchen and catcher Neil Walker, both former Aflac All-Americans, are slated to open 2007 at the AA level. However, the talent level is pretty thin after McCutchen, Walker and 2006 first-round pick Brad Lincoln.
Talent To Come: The Pirates pick fourth for the second consecutive year, and after missing on several notable early picks such as Bullington, Van Benschoten, Sean Burnett and Bobby Bradley, they really need to make sure they make the right pick if they intend to ever stop being a perennial presence among the top three to five teams in the draft order.
They did make a surprising move by signing Cuban defector Yoslan Herrera, and that signing could point to an increased activity on the international front, which hasn’t been a very fruitful avenue for them.
Assessment: The Pirates have Major League Baseball’s longest streak of consecutive losing seasons, now 14 years and counting. Call it the curse of Barry Bonds, as the team just hasn’t been the same since they allowed him to leave via free agency after his second (of seven) MVP season in 1992. They have made several shrewd deals over the past few years, picking up Brian Giles for Ricardo Rincon, spinning Giles for Oliver Perez and Jason Bay, picking up Freddy Sanchez and Mike Gonzalez for Jeff Suppan and most recently getting Adam LaRoche for Gonzalez. They need their most recent early draft picks to step up quickly to help complement a solid middle of their batting order and a couple of solid starters, but that likely won’t happen in 2007.
3. Chicago Cubs (66-96 in 2006)
Veteran Talent Base: If the Cubs didn’t have a veteran talent base in place before their offseason free agent frenzy, they have one now. Alfonso Soriano was the most notable signing of the entire offseason, although it remains to be seen whether he’ll be playing centerfield or left field. Defense has never been his strong suit, and it doesn’t have to be given how many ways he can burn you on offense.
No matter how well Soriano performs, the team needs Derrek Lee to stay healthy and provide his usual production as well as his slick glove at first base. Aramis Ramirez was re-signed this offseason and should provide his usual production from across the diamond at the hot corner.
Mark DeRosa was signed to play second base, and Cliff Floyd was inked presumably to platoon in left field. Jacque Jones had a solid season in right field despite struggling against left-handed pitching. Michael Barrett is one of the league’s better hitting catchers.
Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis were acquired to fill a couple of holes in the starting rotation. Both have power stuff, but both have also been wildly inconsistent throughout their careers. While the Cubs pitching staff may lead the league in strikeouts, they are almost guaranteed to lead the league in walks issued.
The bullpen has plenty of collective experience thanks to Bob Howry, Scott Eyre and Ryan Dempster, who at this point in time seems to be poised to serve as the team’s closer despite stuggling in that role a year ago. Michael Wuertz and Will Ohman aren’t as experienced as Howry, Eyre and Dempster, but they both enjoyed solid seasons in 2006. Kerry Wood, if healthy, figures to factor into the bullpen mix as well.
Young Talent Base: Carlos Zambrano is the team’s staff ace at 25 years old. Mark Prior could assume that role for any team if he ever finds a way to stay healthy, and may be in a better position to get there now that Dusty Baker no longer manages this team. Young lefties Rich Hill and Sean Marshall were huge for the Cubs during their rookie seasons last year, particularly Hill, who could be the team’s second best starter in 2007. And don’t forget about once top prospect Angel Guzman.
Neal Cotts was acquired to give the bullpen another solid lefty to complement Eyre, while right-hander Carlos Marmol could also factor into the pitching staff despite struggling in 19 appearances (13 starts) during his rookie season.
The signings of Soriano and Floyd may be bad news for left-fielder Matt Murton, who has quietly put up some very good numbers before his 25th birthday. As a right-handed hitter, he should get plenty of opportunities to spell both Floyd and Jones against tough left-handed pitching.
Talent Moving Up: Top prospect Felix Pie has slowly but surely climbed up the Cubs organizational ladder, enjoying a fine season at AAA a year ago. He may be blocked at the big-league level by Soriano, and if that’s the case he may serve as prime trade bait if the Cubs manage to be in playoff contention by the end of July.
Fellow AAA mates Eric Patterson and Scott Moore also enjoyed solid seasons. Moore, like Pie, is blocked by current third baseman Aramis Ramirez, and may be of greatest value to the Cubs as trade bait. Patterson, who has exciting overall offensive tools with speed and good gap power, could replace DeRosa by midseason.
The team made a huge commitment this offseason in Jeff Samardzija as they feel he can move quickly now that he has put his potential NFL career to rest. Fellow right-handed starter Juan Mateo earned 10 big-league starts last summer, but may have to settle for a bullpen job or more AAA time.
Talent To Come: You can almost guarantee that signability will not be an issue for the Cubs with the third overall pick when the June draft rolls around, and should the Devil Rays and Royals opt to select players that are considered easier signs, the Cubs may be in a prime position to take a player that otherwise should not have fallen to the third pick. In 2001 Mark Prior fell to them, and last year they didn’t hesitate to take Jeff Samardzija in the fifth round only to give him what at the time was the largest signing bonus in draft history. While they forfeited their second round selection by signing Soriano, they picked up a sandwich pick in losing Juan Pierre.
From Carlos Zambrano to Felix Pie, the team has had its fair share of success on the Latin American international free agent market.
Assessment: The Cubs spent money this offseason as if they just missed the playoffs. They better hope their $300 million spending spree accounts for 25-30 wins during the 2007 season, as expectations are high on the North side of Chicago. I have never been a fan of teams that throw vast amounts of money at problems, especially when some of the players they bought are questionable investments. That said, with a little luck and sustained health, the team could have one of the more imposing middle of the orders in all of baseball, a solid bullpen and a good enough starting rotation, particularly if Mark Prior can find a way to contribute.
2. Kansas City Royals (62-100 in 2006)
Veteran Talent Base: If the Royals check Reggie Sanders career year-to-year numbers, they may realize that he’s poised for a solid 2007 season, as Sanders seems to enjoy odd-numbered years more than even-numbered ones. Mike Sweeney has long been the team’s captain, but he needs to stay healthy for the Royals to have a chance. Mark Grudzielanek has hit better in his 30s than he did in his 20s. Jason LaRue was signed to platoon with young catcher John Buck behind the plate.
Shortstop Angel Berroa hasn’t done much since his Rookie of the Year performance in 2003, leading the Royals, and everyone else, to believe that they had the position more than covered for years to come.
Gil Meche got a huge contract from the Royals this past offseason despite putting up mediocre numbers amidst numerous injuries throughout his career. Odalis Perez still has the talent to have a strong season, but character and conditioning issues always seem to be a bigger factor than his actual production. The team took a chance on Octavio Dotel, recovering from elbow surgery, and hope he can serve as the team’s closer. Scott Elarton's career has also been marred by numerous injuries.
Joel Peralta, Ken Ray, Todd Wellemeyer and David Riske are solid but not spectacular bullpen arms.
Young Talent Base: The team hopes Zack Greinke’s off the field issues are behind him and that he can find the form that made him so successful during his rookie debut in 2004. Jorge de la Rosa has an electric arm, particularly for a lefty, but has been unable to harness his impressive repertoire. Jimmy Gobble has also been inconsistent despite good stuff, and the team seems convinced to continue to use him in the bullpen.
Mark Teahen, who enjoyed a very productive 2006 season, may move to a corner outfield spot to make room for Alex Gordon. The Royals have several young candidates that will factor into the outfield mix, including Joey Gathright, David DeJesus and Shane Costa, all three of which bat left-handed removing the possibility of a possible platoon. DeJesus did have a very good 2006 season, and should be favored to win centerfield out of spring training.
John Buck as noted above will likely platoon with LaRue behind the plate. Buck hasn’t progressed as much as the Royals had hope since acquiring him from the Astros as part of the deal for Carlos Beltran.
Talent Moving Up: If Alex Gordon doesn’t open the season with the big-league team, he is certain to join the Royals in a matter of months. The same goes for Billy Butler, who with Gordon could form one of the more feared three-four, lefty-righty hitting tandems in the game within a year or two.
Chris Lubanski, Mitch Maier and Justin Huber may all find themselves at the AAA level to open the 2007 season. Huber and Maier have both had a taste of the big-leagues and could be in the mix for the opening day roster.
The first overall pick in the 2006 draft, Luke Hochevar, was promoted to AA to take part in the Texas League playoffs, joining fellow righty Billy Buckner and left-hander Tyler Lumsden in the starting rotation. All three are a big part of the Royals future pitching plans. Brian Bannister is closer to contributing after opening the 2006 season in the New York Mets starting rotation.
Right-handed relievers Ryan Braun and Joakim Soria could factor into the bullpen when spring training camp breaks. While most of the team’s talent is inching closer to the big-leagues, the lower levels of the system are severely lacking in potential impact players.
Talent To Come: Had the Royals not swept the Tigers to close out the regular season, they would be sitting atop the draft order, and would own the first overall pick for the second consecutive year. The past two years they have invested quite a bit of money in Gordon and Hochevar, so money should not play as big of a factor as some may think with the second overall pick this coming year. The organization doesn’t have much of a presence on the international market, placing even more importance in the draft, meaning the margin for error in talent evaluation is slim.
Assessment: The Royals are getting closer, and it would be hard to count them out since they surprised a lot of people in 2003, although not much has gone right since then outside of landing Alex Gordon with the second overall pick in the 2005 draft. New General Manager Dayton Moore knows the importance of trusting his scouts while building through the draft and player development, learning from the best in Braves GM John Schuerholz. The Tigers overcame the odds and made it to the World Series playing in one of the toughest divisions in all of Major League Baseball, so while it certainly isn’t an impossible task for the Royals to follow suit, it is an improbable one.
1. Tampa Bay Devil Rays (61-101 in 2006)
Veteran Talent Base: 36-year old relief pitcher Dan Miceli is the oldest player on the roster, and could be one of the arms the Devil Rays look to secure close contests late in the game. Left-hander Casey Fossum and right-hander Jae Seo could fill two of the team’s rotation spots to open the spring.
Among the hitters, reserve infielders Ty Wigginton and Greg Norton, as well as backup catcher Josh Paul, are the only players over the age of 28. That age drops to 26 if you don’t count Japanese import and big-league rookie-to-be Akinori Iwamura.
The Devil Rays have almost no veteran presence, a huge sign pointing to their insistence to build with youth for the future, and not 2007.
Young Talent Base: Carl Crawford has four full big-league seasons under his belt, and yet he is only 25 years old and continues to get better. While he is already an All-Star, he may only be a year away from attaining superstar status a la Carlos Beltran.
Centerfielder Rocco Baldelli may not be far behind, who has a rare combination of speed an power, and may have already achieved superstar status if it weren’t for a few injuries getting in his way.
Infielder B.J. Upton may be somewhat without a defensive home, and he hasn’t made much impact with the bat as many thought he would have by now, and as he did in the minors, so he is certainly poised for a breakout season.
Jorge Cantu, who enjoyed a big season two years ago, and powerful slugger Jonny Gomes, are two more young potential stars in the making.
When healthy in 2005, Scott Kazmir established himself as one of the best young arms in all of baseball, continuing to show his electric one-two fastball-breaking ball punch that made him the most electric high school pitchers to come along in a very long time. Edwin Jackson, once rated the top prospect in the Dodgers system, could be poised to join Kazmir in the rotation.
Seth McClung is expected to serve as the team’s closer, while Jason Hammel, J.P. Howell, Ruddy Lugo, Chad Orvella, Jamie Shields and Jon Switzer should represent more than half of the team’s pitching staff.
Talent Moving Up: Delmon Young took over right field late in the 2006 season, and is expected to remain there for Tampa for a long, long time. Joel Guzman could also make the big league club out of spring training, another former top prospect from the Dodgers organization.
Last year’s third overall pick, Evan Longoria, and the fourth overall pick from 2004, Jeff Niemann, are not far away from making their own impact at the big-league level. Shortstop Reid Brignac was named the MVP of the California League in 2006, and he too may not be far away.
Pitchers Mitch Talbot, Juan Salas, Shawn Riggans and Andrew Sonnanstine could vie for time during spring training, while the next wave of arms (Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson, Jacob McGee and Matt Walker) could help the team vault to the next level when they arrive should the team’s young hitters continue to progress as expected.
The team outbid several other teams to obtain the services of Japanese infielder Akinori Iwamura, who could play almost anywhere on the diamond. He could be an interesting Rookie of the Year candidate to follow.
Talent To Come: The Devil Rays own the first overall pick for the third time in their young existence. They haven’t been shy about taking players that are perceived to be pricey (Jeff Niemann, Delmon Young, B.J. Upton), so signability shouldn’t play as big of an issue as it has in the past few years for teams holding the first overall such as the San Diego Padres in 2004 and the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2002. David Price at this point in time seems to be the easy choice as the draft’s best prospect, and Tampa Bay certainly could use his arm in a hurry. They also select first in every round after the first, which gives them a very good opportunity to stockpile more talent into their system. The signing of Iwamura may indicate the D-Rays are also more serious about being a player on the international market.
Assessment: The Devil Rays can’t afford to mess up their first overall selection, meaning money better not play too big of a factor in who they do or don’t take, as they need to figure out a way to stop being a regular atop the raw draft order year after year. If signability does play a part of their decision, they will look foolish for spending over $10 million on Iwamura, especially if the team continues to struggle. The hitting talent is alive and well at the big-league level, with more to come, but they need some of their more talented young arms to catch up before they have a realistic shot at competing with the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays.
Beating the Odds
So which of the top 10 worse teams from 2006 have the best chance of making the biggest statement in 2007? Here is how I would rank their chances in order:
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
To complement a young and potentially potent lineup, the team now has four proven starters that have tossed 200 innings each of the past three seasons.
2. Milwaukee Brewers
A healthy Ben Sheets and a lineup full of young stars ready to breakout as well as more to come could mean big things for the Brewers in 2007.
3. San Francisco Giants
A healthy Barry Bonds could mean a night and day difference between the 2006 Giants and the 2007 squad.
4. Chicago Cubs
You have to do more than spend a lot of money to convince me that you’re ready to make a 25-game improvement from one year to the next.
5. Colorado Rockies
It’s hard not to like the moves the Rockies are making these days, and they aren’t that far away from being a legitimate contender in the NL West.
6. Kansas City Royals
A few key promotions could vault the Royals up this list, but young talent typically needs some big-league service time to make the proper adjustments.
7. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates have some good players, but overall they aren’t where they need to be to be thinking about much more than a fourth-place finish in the NL Central.
8. Baltimore Orioles
Competing in the American League East just won’t be easy for either the Orioles or the Devil Rays.
9. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Be patient Devil Rays fans, the talent is moving up, and if everything clicks in a year or two you may have reason to make some noise.
10. Washington Nationals
The Nationals may not be the worst team in 2007, but they quite simply don’t have the talent level to compete for the playoffs.
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.