Since the 2006 Detroit Tigers are the inspiration to this and next week’s column, I should first point out that the Tigers weren’t the worse team in 2005, nor were they the best team in 2006, but they were close on both accounts. Over the past several years we have witnessed quite a few teams rise up from seemingly nowhere to enjoy a tremendous amount of success. The Tigers, White Sox, Marlins and Angels all overcame the odds and doubters to make it all the way to the World Series in the past five seasons, with the Tigers being the only team mentioned that didn’t win it all. The most notable turnaround in recent history is the true worst to first emergence of both the Minnesota Twins and the Atlanta Braves during the 1991 season.
What does it take for such a bad team one year to become so successful the next year? Rarely does success happen overnight, meaning there is typically some kind of strong talent base already in place. From a slew of sleeping giants to a strong group of young players ready to step up to talented young rookies to a decent group of veterans as well as shrewd free agent and trade acquisitions, quite often it is just a matter of everything clicking.
Shrewd free agent acquisitions such as Terry Pendleton, Chili Davis, Ivan Rodriguez, Jermaine Dye and Kenny Rogers were all key to the sudden rise of the ’91 Braves, the ’91 Twins, the ’03 Marlins, the ’05 White Sox and the ’06 Tigers respectively.
Young players that finally hit their stride always play a big part in such success stories. Tom Glavine, Josh Beckett, and Jeremy Bonderman all had plenty of talent as soon as they broke into the big-leagues, but they all managed to finally put their talents together at an opportune time to help propel their respective teams.
Breakthrough rookies are also a must, represented by Chuck Knoblauch, Francisco Rodriguez, Dontrelle Willis, Bobby Jenks and Justin Verlander.
And it always helps to have a few savvy vets such as Charlie Liebrandt, Tim Salmon and Magglio Ordonez showing that they still have a little gas left in the tank to help complement and already surging team.
So, of last year’s 10 worst teams, which ones profile to have the most dramatic turnaround heading into the 2007 season? That’s what I’m going to try and point out while assessing each team’s overall talent base, starting with the 10th through sixth worse teams based on their final record from a year ago.
10. San Francisco Giants (76-85 in 2006)
Veteran Talent Base: While the Giants lost Jason Schmidt this past offseason, they quickly made up for his loss by signing Barry Zito. Barry Bonds has already re-signed with the team, and stands to break Henry Aaron’s all-time home run record with 22 more blasts. Mike Matheny has retired from the game, but Bengie Molina will take his place. Omar Vizquel keeps on chugging as he approaches his 40th birthday in late April. Randy Winn capably serves anywhere in the outfield.
The team re-signed Ray Durham and Pedro Feliz, while adding Dave Roberts, Ryan Klesko, Rich Aurilia, Steve Kline and Russ Ortiz to their roster.
Armando Benitez and Matt Morris, two key acquisitions from the past two years, were expected to contribute a lot more than they did in 2006. Benitez has been hobbled by a bum knee, and no one seems to know what they can expect from him in 2007.
No other team profiled within this feature comes close to the veteran talent the Giants have. Few teams in all of baseball do.
Young Talent Base: Noah Lowry and Matt Cain are two of the brightest young starting pitchers in all of baseball, and along with Zito and Morris should give the Giants a pretty good starting rotation on paper. The Giants do have numerous young pitchers that have already accumulated big-league service time that could step up at any time, including Brad Hennessey, Kevin Correia, Jonathan Sanchez and Brian Wilson, and most of them will likely be replied upon to stabilize their bullpen. Wilson in particular could step up as the team’s closer should Benitez not be healthy, with a nasty slider that has drawn some comparisons to former Giants closer Robb Nen.
Lance Niekro, Todd Linden and Fred Lewis haven’t developed as much or as quickly as the Giants had hoped, which is why they went out and signed players like Klesko, Aurilia and Roberts. Niekro and Linden will likely serve as backups, while Lewis is probably headed back to AAA.
Talent Moving Up: Under the guidance of General Manager Brian Sabean, who has been at his post since 1996, the Giants have typically been one of the older teams in the league, as Sabean isn’t opposed to losing draft picks or trading prospects to acquire proven, veteran talent. The Giants did land Tim Lincecum in the first round of the draft a year ago, arguably the most dynamic college pitcher last season, and he appears to be on the fast-track.
Dominican third baseman Angel Villalona was given $2.1 million to sign with the Giants, although he has yet to make his professional debut and is years away. Dan Ortmeier, Travis Ishikawa, Nate Schierholtz and Eddy Martinez-Esteve all have good bats, but at this time they are either blocked and/or don’t project to be much more than utility players.
Talent To Come: For the second year in a row the Giants will pick 10th overall in the draft, and have also acquired two extra first-round picks and two additional supplemental first-round picks with Schmidt and Alou signing with the Dodgers and Mets respectively, putting Sabean and scouting director Matt Nerland in an unfamiliar position, even if they forfeited their second, third and fourth round picks due to their own free agent activity.
Assessment: The Giants are very unique to this discussion, as the rest of the teams listed will be relying more on young players to step up. As I noted, the starting rotation could be very solid, but the bullpen at this point in time looks shaky at best. The lineup once again looks thin before and after Bonds with very little room for substantial improvement, despite the number of recognizable names added, although Bonds alone can carry any offense if he manages to stay healthy.
9. Arizona Diamondbacks (76-86 in 2006)
Veteran Talent Base: Randy Johnson was re-acquired this offseason, and the D-Backs hope playing for the team where he won four Cy Young Awards will help him get back on track after posting a 5.00 ERA in 2006. Fellow lefty Doug Davis was also acquired via trade, and those two along with workhorse Livan Hernandez should give Arizona a solid veteran staff behind Cy Young Award winning ace Brandon Webb.
Tony Clark, Eric Byrnes and Orlando Hudson are the only notable positional players that are over the age of 26 on the roster. Clark is one year removed from a big comeback season, Byrnes all-out style of play endears him to his teammates and fans alike while Hudson is a human highlight reel at second base.
Young Talent Base: The Diamondbacks are loaded with talented young hitters, and after introducing Chad Tracy, Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin and Stephen Drew into the lineup the past two seasons, centerfielder Chris Young and catcher Miguel Montero are the next young phenoms to be broken in. With Young’s addition in particular, nearly every single spot on the field is manned by a potential All-Star, and depending on how fast these young players mature and become assimilated to playing together at the big-league level they could score runs in bunches like few others teams.
The team’s bullpen has some big question marks, but it could be stabilized depending on how much young pitchers Edgar Gonzalez, Enrique Gonzalez, Dana Eveland, Casey Daigle, Juan Cruz, Brandon Lyon and Jose Valverde step up this year.
Talent Moving Up: Young and Montero were already covered just above. Also close to contributing is infielder Alberto Callaspo, who enjoyed a very good season a year ago at the AAA level, but appears to be blocked by both Drew and Hudson. His future with the D-Backs will probably lie as a super-utility player. Fellow infielder Brian Barden, who has nothing left to prove in the minors, is in a similar position
Pitchers Dustin Nippert, Micah Owings and Tony Pena may all vie for time in the team’s bullpen, or serve as valuable pitching depth should any of the D-Backs projected starters miss time due to injury.
Plus, the team has two more impact bats that should open this year at high-A and AA respectively, Justin Upton and Carlos Gonzalez. Both are still a few years away, but their presence is a tribute to the tremendous job the Diamondbacks have done to quickly re-establish the talent level that seemed to quickly disappear after their World Series Championship in 2001.
Talent To Come: The D-Backs still have not come to terms with last year’s first-round pick, Max Scherzer, and while most seem to be optimistic that this deal will eventually happen, it remains unclear if the departure of former Scouting Director Mike Rizzo will effect the negotiations. By taking players such as Scherzer, Upton and Drew in recent years, the team has made it clear that they are willing to make the financial commitment necessary at the scouting and player development level to improve the team’s overall talent base. With the ninth overall pick in this year’s draft, they should be in good position to continue those improvements.
Assessment: A proven, veteran pitching staff and a young, talented starting lineup may lead to very good things for the Diamondbacks this year. Randy Johnson and Doug Davis will both need to revert to the form they showed prior to the 2006 season, and the team is confident Johnson will do just that after giving him a two-year contract extension. The team’s offense is expected to take care of itself, with the bullpen being the greatest area of concern at this point in time. The talent is definitely in place for the Diamondbacks to emerge as a team to be reckoned with for years to come.
8. Colorado Rockies (76-86 in 2006)
Veteran Talent Base: Regardless of the park factors that playing at Coors Field presents, Todd Helton has been one of the top hitters in all of baseball since his breakthrough rookie campaign in 1997. His numbers did regress a year ago, and some skeptics claim that this might be because of the new environment controlled balls that the team now uses as discussed below.
Javy Lopez was acquired this past offseason to give the team some thump from behind the plate, although it remains to be seen how much plaing time Lopez will actually receive.
Most of the veteran presence on the team comes in the bullpen, which may give the Rockies an edge over the Giants and Diamondbacks as profiled above. All-Star closer Brian Fuentes and LaTroy Hawkins provide a formidable one-two punch late in ballgames. And while it seems as though Byun-Yung Kim has been around forever, he is only 28 years old, and he along with Josh Fogg provide a couple of capable and durable arms to the starting rotation.
Young Talent Base: Aaron Cook and Jeff Francis have given the Rockies two solid young starters the past couple of years, particularly Francis, who at 26 years old continues to get better. Jason Hirsh and Taylor Buchholz, both of whom along with Wily Taveras were acquired from the Astros in the offseason trade of Jason Jennings, givens the Rockies two more promising young arms that may more than make up for the loss of Jennings.
The starting lineup is loaded with young hitters, which includes third baseman Garrett Atkins, corner outfielders Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe and speedy centerfielder Wily Taveras. Atkins, Holliday and Hawpe will team with Helton once again to provide a very balanced, left-right-left-right middle of the order for opposing pitchers to contend with.
Talent Moving Up: Talented rookie Troy Tulowitzki is expected to step in and take over shortstop this season, a position the team hopes he will assume for years to come at an All-Star caliber level. Catcher Chris Iannetta is also poised to take an everyday spot with the team, cruising through AA and AAA a year ago to earn a late season callup. Their two additions give the Rockies a very talented and young starting lineup one through eight.
Slugging third baseman Ian Stewart may be one step closer to contributing at the big-league level, as will powerful right-handed pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez, who may just open the season with the Rockies. Corner outfielder Jeff Baker has nothing left to prove in the minors, but may have a tough time moving Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe out of left and right field.
Venezuelan lefty Franklin Morales is one of the more exciting pitching prospects in the game, former Aflac All-American Dexter Fowler continues to impress with his five-tool package while right-handed pitcher Greg Reynolds was the second overall pick from last year’s draft and could move quickly.
Talent To Come: The Rockies have been very active on the international free agent market in recent years, and there is no reason to believe that won’t continue. Armed with the eighth overall pick in this June’s draft, they, like all of the other teams on this list, are in very good position to add another quality player to their already talented system. They don’t seem to really have a preference between college and high school, hitters and pitchers, instead taking who they believe is the best player available, a philosophy that is tried and true for years and years.
Assessment: General Manager Dan O’Dowd has switched gears several times over the past few years in an attempt to determine what type of players best fit the extreme factors that come with playing your home games a mile above sea level. From power hitters to speedy contact hitters, the Rockies in the past year decided to try and control those factors by keeping the balls that are used during games in a temperature controlled environment. That idea seemed to have worked, as they surpressed some of those extreme factors a year ago, and now the organization can focus on acquiring the best players, instead of the best players that fit a certain pre-conceived standard.
7. Milwaukee Brewers (75-87 in 2006)
Veteran Talent Base: World Series hero Jeff Suppan was signed this offseason to stabilize and already strong starting pitching staff. After losing Ben Sheets and Tomo Ohka for much of the 2006 season, Suppan’s durable arm is a very welcome addition.
Right fielder Geoff Jenkins may have a fire in his belly after he was benched for several weeks late last season, not to mention that he’s in a contract year. Fellow corner outfielder Kevin Mench may end up platooning with Jenkins, as the right-handed hitting Mench crushes left-handed pitchers while the left-handed hitting Jenkins does the same to righties.
Francisco Cordero, acquired from the Rangers as part of the deal for Carlos Lee, was virtually unhittable after re-claiming his closer’s role.
Johnny Estrada and Damian Miller will form a capable catching tandem, while Craig Counsell and Tony Graffanino offer experienced infield depth off of the bench.
Young Talent Base: The Brewers are very much like the Diamondbacks in that they have an extremely talented young hitter at nearly every position. Bill Hall takes his big bat from shortstop to centerfield this season, making way for J.J. Hardy, who was injured a year ago. Rickie Weeks, who also missed most of last year due to injury, is also expected to return healthy. Prince Fielder crushed 28 home runs as a rookie a year ago, and gives the Brewers one of the better young infields, outside of third base, in all of baseball.
In the outfield, Corey Hart is expected to receive significant playing time at one of the corner spots.
Staff ace Ben Sheets is still only 28 years old, and blends an extremely rare combination of impeccable control with a power arsenal. Sustained health is key for Sheets. Chris Capuano and Dave Bush have progressed nicely the past two years, and round out the Brewers rotation.
Jose Capellan is future closer material, while Carlos Villanueva is expected to serve as the team’s long-man out of the bullpen while providing depth in the event that any of the starters lose time due to injury.
Talent Moving Up: Right-handed pitcher Yovani Gallardo and third baseman Ryan Braun are expected to open the season at AAA, and if they carry over the success they enjoyed in 2006, they will be with the big-league club in a matter of months. Left-handed starter Zach Jackson, who had a brief stint with the Brewers last summer, will also provide depth at the AAA level. The bullpen could receive a boost from righties Dennis Sarfate and Tim Dillard and lefty Joe Thatcher.
Tony Gwynn Jr. is caught somewhat in a numbers crunch, particularly now that Bill Hall is expected to take over centerfield and recently signed a four-year contract. If nothing else he could be a valuable asset off of the bench for a team that doesn’t have much speed.
Talent To Come: The last time the Brewers had the seventh overall pick, 2002, they selected Prince Fielder despite the presence of Richie Sexson on the big-league club. Scouting director Jack Zduriencik has also struck gold with early first-round picks Rickie Weeks and Ryan Braun, and overall the organization has done a very good job building a young talent base through the draft and via trades without much success in Latin America. The Brewers have used the draft and follow process more than most teams extremely well, and enter the final spring of the process with a strong class.
Assessment: After finishing the 2005 season with a .500 record, many prognosticators pegged the Brewers as a sleeper team to watch for the 2006 season. Injuries to too many key players and a few lackluster performances led to a disappointing season. The talent that made the Brewers a potential sleeper team last year is still intact, and in fact has been fortified. Expectations are growing in Milwaukee, where the Brewers haven’t been above .500 since 1992 and haven’t been in the playoffs since 1982.
6. Washington Nationals (71-91 in 2006)
Veteran Talent Base: The Nationals don’t have much in the form of veteran talent, as they have traded most of it away (Livan Hernandez, Jose Vidro), or allowed pricey free agents get away (Alfonso Soriano). Catcher Brian Schneider is pretty much the only everyday veteran you will find on the team. First baseman Nick Johnson at 28 years old is close, and he finished the 2006 season with his best season to date. Johnson’s youth and upside is still high enough for him to be considered somewhat of a young player that may continue to improve.
Young Talent Base: 22 year old Ryan Zimmerman highlights this group, finishing the season as the runner-up for the National League Rookie of the Year award, showing his advanced prowess at the plate and on the field. He spent all of 67 games in the minors, and he could very well could join David Wright as the National League’s perennial representatives at the hot corner in the All-Star Game for years to come.
Infielder Felipe Lopez didn’t have as good of a season as he did in 2005, but he still is one of the more productive middle infielders in the game. Bobby Bowden continued to show his passion for multi-tooled outfielders, and he acquired several reclamation projects that could explode at any time, including Austin Kearns, Michael Restovich, Alex Escobar and Chris Snelling. Ryan Church’s productivity has been overlooked by most the past several years, as he’s somewhat of a outfield ‘tweener in that he doesn’t have the ideal speed for center and he doesn’t have the ideal power for a corner spot.
Closer Chad Cordero highlights the pitching staff, and at 25 years old when the season begins, he already has 91 career saves under his belt. Ryan Wagner and Jon Rauch gives the Nationals two more power arms for opposing teams to face late in the game. John Patterson will anchor a young pitching staff that includes a lot of relative no-namers.
Similar to the outfielders obtained, the pitching staff boasts quite a few reclamation projects as well. Jerome Williams and Joel Hanrahan were both well-known pitching prospects moving up the chain in the Giants and Dodgers systems respectively, but the luster on their once bright stars has since faded.
Talent Moving Up: Outfielder/utility player Kory Casto, right-handed starters Collin Balester and Garrett Mock, left-handed starter Matt Chico and relievers Emiliano Fruto and Zech Zinicola could all make significant contributions to the big-league team at some point this season. One thing is for sure, while the Nationals projected starting rotation looks shaky at best, they could boast one of the better bullpens in the league with more help on the way.
First baseman Larry Broadway doesn’t have much left to prove in the minors, but he is blocked in a big way by Johnson. While the Nationals do have some interesting talent in their system, most of it will be below the AA level in 2007.
Talent To Come: The Nationals made a statement on the international free agent market when they signed Dominican shortstop Esmailyn Gonzalez late last summer, and seem determined to continue their presence in Latin America. The sixth overall pick will bring a talented player, and the Nats haven’t been shy about taking high profile high school arms in recent years. While Chad Cordero was an astute signability pick from a few years ago, college closers should not be on the Nationals radar at this point in time.
Assessment: The Nationals haven’t been shy about making it perfectly clear that the team is rebuilding with youth with the future in mind. The offense quite simply isn’t potent enough, especially given the instability of their pitching staff. Unfortunately it looks as though on paper the Nationals could very well be one of the worst teams in all of baseball during the 2007 season, as they can probably look ahead to another very early draft pick in 2008.
Be sure to check back next week as I break down the five teams that struggled the most in 2006 and how their talent base stacks up with the teams already profiled here.
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.