The Atlanta Braves for the first time since 1990 will not be playing in the postseason. I have mentioned many times in these columns not to bet against the Braves given their amazing run of success, but the 2006 season marked the first time in 16 years in which they did not lead their division.
The main culprit for their demise: Pitching. With a few games left to go in the regular season, the Braves as of games played through September 27th had a team ERA of 4.65, 12th in the National League. From 1991-2005 the highest team ERA they had recorded came last year, with a 4.16 mark, still good enough for sixth best in the league. During that time they led the entire National League in ERA 10 times in 15 years, leading the league in six straight years (1997-2002) while finishing second in the league two other times. Greg Maddux won five consecutive Cy Young Awards from 1992-1995, while Tom Glavine won two (1991, 1998) and John Smoltz added one of his own (1996).
The Big Three may be dismantled, but John Smoltz is still around, and the Braves wisely picked up his eight million dollar option for the 2007 season earlier this month. Rock solid throughout his career, Smoltz has a 3.58 ERA over 34 starts this past season. The only other reliable member of the Braves’ starting rotation, Tim Hudson, posted a 4.86 ERA, over a run higher than his career average (3.53), over 35 starts.
Hudson will need to bounce back next year for the Braves to re-attain their playoff status. John Thomson, who has been riddled by injuries throughout his career, is a free agent and likely will only return at the right price. Mike Hampton, who underwent Tommy John surgery a year ago, could be fully healthy by mid-season in 2007, but he should not be relied on since he has now missed the bulk of two entire seasons due to injuries.
Of course the Braves have always been successful by developing their own players from within. Young righty Kyle Davies missed a large part of the 2006 season due to injury, but will finish the ’06 season with the big-league club and should assume a rotation spot next spring. Lefty Horacio Ramirez also was injured for a large part of 2006 and may assume another rotation spot next spring. Another young lefty, Chuck James, pitched very well in his rookie season with the Braves, and he too may be in the mix next year.
Moving up in the upper levels of the minor leagues and possibly poised to contribute next year are righty Matt Wright, who missed most of the last two seasons due to arm injuries, and lefty Matt Harrison. Wright, now healthy, enjoyed a fine season, leading the Southern League in ERA (2.22) before being bumped up to AAA Richmond. Wright’s 5.77 ERA at AAA is a little deceiving, as he gave up 10 earned runs in 3.2 innings in his first start after his promotion. Harrison posted a 3.35 ERA between high-A Myrtle Beach and AA Mississippi, and is a step behind Wright as he moves up the ladder.
The bullpen is very young, again represented by plenty of talented homegrown arms: Macay McBride, Joey Devine, Blaine Boyer and Anthony Lerew. Oscar Villarreal, acquired from the Diamondbacks last offseason as part of the trade for Johnny Estrada, had a very good year and adds another talented, young arm to the Braves ‘pen.
A lot of questions regarding the Braves starting rotation need to be addressed between now and next April for them to reclaim their 15-year pitching dominance, but similar to their playoff success, I’m not going to bet against them given their past success.
Don’t blame the bats
One thing is for sure, don’t blame the Braves offense this year. They finished second in the league in runs scored with a very young and talented group of players surrounding proven veterans Chipper and Andruw Jones. Team leader Chipper Jones missed about a third of the year due to a nagging strained oblique injury, and despite being extremely productive while in the lineup (.325 batting average, .598 slugging percentage), he hasn’t stayed healthy for a full season since 2003.
Andruw Jones on the other hand has been amazingly healthy and relatively consistent since his first full season in 1998. Andruw reportedly has been on the trading due to his hefty salary, but the Braves have been reluctant to trade him knowing his value not only offensively, but defensively as well.
The Braves patience with first baseman Adam LaRoche paid off in 2006, as he broke out with a .290/.359/.567 season in which he hit 38 doubles and 31 home runs. Right fielder Jeff Francoeur continued to show his intensity and power stroke, adding 28 home runs of his own, but he will be much better off moving forward when he learns to be more disciplined at the plate by drawing more walks and striking out less.
Up the middle of the infield, catcher Brian McCann quietly had a huge season behind the plate, hitting .336/.392/.583, positioning himself as arguably the best young catcher in all of baseball along with Minnesota’s Joe Mauer. Second Baseman Marcus Giles slugged about 50 points less than his career average, yet still hit respectably well. Shortstop Edgar Renteria enjoyed a bounce back year upon his return to the National League, re-establishing himself as one of the best shortstops in all of baseball.
The best part about all of these young offensive stalwarts is that they’re years away from free agency, meaning they are locked up through this decade. As for the vets, Andruw Jones is only signed through next year, while Chipper Jones is signed through 2008 with an option for 2009. Renteria is signed through 2008 as well.
Maybe the balance has changed in Atlanta, as the Braves may be known as one of the better hitting teams in all of baseball in the seasons to come. But again, the pitching needs to return to form for the Braves to return to the form we had all become accustomed to.
Reclammation projects
From Terry Pendleton to Jaret Wright, the Braves always seem to have their fair share of reclamation projects. That is a tribute to their professional scouting department, which will be covered a little bit just below. This year the Braves did not have that one player that seemingly came out of nowhere to have a big comeback year. Edgar Renteria may have been close, but I think many expected him to get back on track once he got out of Boston.
They may have a few candidates currently on their existing roster to step up and assume such a role next year. Mike Hampton is probably the most notable player that could make the biggest impact should he return to health.
Stability
Arguably the most important part of the Braves success over the years, the organization from top to bottom has been incredibly stable, starting with John Schuerholz, who has been the team’s General Manager since 1990. Field Manager Bobby Cox, arguably the most well-respect manager in all of baseball and who owns four Manager of the Year trophies (three from the years of 1991-2005), has been in his position since 1991 when he took back to the field after spending five years as the team’s GM (he also served as the team’s Field Manager from 1978-1985). Roy Clark picked up where long-time Scouting Director Paul Snyder left off in 2000 (Snyder has since returned to the Braves), while long-time Farm Director Dayton Moore left the organization mid-way through the season to take over the Kansas City Royals as their General Manager. Moore going to Kansas City should be a good sign for the Royals, as they haven’t been consistently successful since John Schuerholz left the team in 1990, and Moore has immediately placed an increased emphasis on scouting and player development.
From the amateur scouts to the player development team, to the professional scouts to the big-league coaches to the front office executives, everyone in the Braves organization is on the same page. Every decision is made with confidence that it is the right one, and the brass at the top trusts their talent evaluators and coaches to go out and find the best players and develop those players into productive big-leaguers. They rarely lose patience with young players, and they rarely let good talent get away while placing an emphasis on character and hard work. The Braves also procure talent from their own backyard better than any other team in baseball, which has further endeared the organization to the local fan base.
NL East will prove to be tough
Even if the Braves do enjoy a little more team-wide health next year and find the next great reclamation project, the rest of the division will prove to be tough to overcome. The New York Mets seem poised to be the next perennial division winner with a very good blend of pricey and proven veterans (Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Pedro Martinez) and talented young stars in the making (David Wright, Jose Reyes, Lastings Milledge).
If not the Mets, the Phillies could also pose a threat, as they are currently making a run at the National League Wild Card despite shipping Bobby Abreu to the Yankees at the trading deadline. Pat Gillick has enjoyed very good success at his previous two stops (Seattle and Toronto), and with the best young right side of the infield in all of baseball in Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, the Phillies will also prove to be tough next year and beyond.
The Marlins are built somewhat similar to the Braves in that they value young talent and place an emphasis on building from within, even if they have to given their limited financial resources. Every single position and spot on their roster has a very talented young individual, which includes numerous rookie of the year candidates with even more talent on the way. Plus, they have two World Series Championships under their belt.
Regardless of what happens to the Braves in the years to come, their 15-year run of dominance was nothing short of impressive. In addition to representing their division in the playoffs for 15 consecutive years, they appeared in the World Series five times during that time, winning one Championship in 1995, and defined the meaning of a sports dynasty.
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.