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| 2,580 MLB PLAYERS | 16,393 MLB DRAFT SELECTIONS

2,580 MLB PLAYERS | 16,393 MLB DRAFT SELECTIONS

Draft | Story | 7/25/2026

2026 MLB Draft: Surprises

Tyler Henninger

Michael Albee

Joey Cohen

Ryan Miller

Historic Lack of Arms Early On

Going into the draft we knew that the pitching at the very top of the board was going to be light, but we still had 11 arms ranked in the Top-30 of our final board. Jackson Flora separated himself from the pack and looked like a sure-fire Top-5 pick going in and that came true. But following him we saw an all-time historic lack of arms taken. Flora was the only pitcher selected within the first 15 picks, something that has never happened in the history of the draft. There were only three pitchers selected in the Top-20 which is tied for the fewest ever in draft history. Inconsistent performances and a handful of injuries did thin the potential arms at the top of the board and teams clearly valued the bats over the arms early on, but seeing the lack of arms reach a historic low was a surprise.

Carson Wiggins Goes 27th Overall

The Mets arguably had the most shocking selections over the first 30 picks. While there were some selections made before them that were obvious underslot deals that could be categorized as “surprises”, the Mets selection of Carson Wiggins truly shocked me. On the surface, sure, the pick looks intriguing. A right-hander that has been up to 102 mph in the past sounds like a solid player to use your first selection on. But when you look at Wiggins resume, the pick begins to make less sense. Not only did Wiggins not throw this spring, he has only thrown 14 career innings during his three years at Arkansas. On top of that, it is a definite reliever profile with control issues. The move makes a little more sense if the Mets went underslot with him and paid someone later, but Wiggins got the entire slot value of $3.4 million. The selection is an extremely risky move and one I personally would not have made with my first pick if I were the Mets.

Braves Pay for Preps Strategy

In a draft where college players went at an extremely high rate, the Braves instilled a strategy that could be categorized as surprising, but one that I think could pay off long term. They used their first two selections on college outfielders, saving over $3.5 million compared to slot value. They also spent a total over $1,500 on their round 8-10 selections. With all those savings, the Braves were able to grab a trio of arms in Kaiden McCarthy ($415,600 over slot), Jensen Hirschkorn ($3,023,800 over slot), and Tyson Grulkowski ($207,600 over slot), along with prep catcher Jack Brenner ($940,200 over slot). Hirschkorn’s deal set the record for high signing bonus for a pick past the 2nd round and Brenner’s deal set the all-time signing bonus record for a 7th round pick. The Braves obviously feel good about their ability to develop preps after plenty of recent success doing so and were not scared to invent heavily in that demographic this year.

-Tyler Henninger

Lombard Drops to 14th Overall

We had Jacob Lombard firmly inside our top 10 throughout the entire draft cycle. Even in our final mock released the day of the draft, he landed at No. 9. There were some late murmurs about potential slippage as things tightened up near draft day, but seeing him ultimately fall to the Marlins at 14 still came as a surprise internally. That surprise only grew when the signing bonus came in underslot, adding another layer to an already unexpected outcome. From a pure talent standpoint, Lombard checked too many boxes to envision him getting out of the top 10. It’s an ultra-intriguing profile where there’s outlier athleticism, advanced defensive chops at shortstop, serious raw power and legitimate big league bloodlines. The combination gives you a high-end foundation at a premium position, and those types of players typically don’t linger on the board. In talking with evaluators after the draft, the most common explanation centered around questions with the hit tool. That was something we were aware of during the process, but the general belief was that the premium clay here would carry more weight and keep him firmly in the T10 Instead, it seems a handful of clubs prioritized more polished and safer offensive profiles, allowing Lombard to slide further than expected. In the end, it feels less like a knock on the player and more a reflection of how the board broke and how teams valued risk versus upside in that range. Still, given the totality of the profile, Lombard getting to 14 stands out as one of the more surprising developments.

Padres take Elliot Lascelles at No. 60

Elliot Lascelles was one of the more intriguing and at times challenging evaluations for us over the past year. When you’re digging in on a prep Canadian, there are just different variables at play, especially with the lack of a traditional spring look so you end up leaning heavier on tournament looks and international reps. It made him a frequent internal discussion for us and ultimately it did catch us off guard a tad when he came off the board at pick 60 to San Diego. That surprise only grew when the bonus came in roughly $1.2M overslot, essentially valuing him in that late first-round range. We ultimately had Lascelles inside our Top 100, landing at No. 85 on our final board, with the hit tool doing a lot of the heavy lifting in the profile. The pure feel to hit has been evident for a while where it’s a loose and controlled operation with ultra-advanced barrel accuracy and a polished all-fields approach. We were especially tuned in to what he did with Team Canada in March, where he saw complex league competition and didn’t look out of place. That kind of environment is rare for a prep prospect, and while the performance was loud, it also presented a unique evaluation challenge in terms of how much higher do you weigh it against the traditional amateur look. Even throughout the summer circuit, the look stayed fairly consistent with his high-contact and bat-to-ball driven offensive profile with a mature approach. The questions we kept coming back to centered more on the defensive home and ultimate impact. There were mixed looks on whether he sticks on the dirt at shortstop long term or slides over to second base, and the power projection has been more moderate given the current swing traits and physicality. That said, you can clearly see where the Padres leaned into the upside. There’s room on the frame to add strength, and if that comes, it could unlock another gear of impact offensively. Pair that with the chance he finds a way to stay at shortstop, and it starts to resemble a much different overall value proposition. Still, given where we valued the profile coming into the draft, it stands out as one of the more aggressive bets of Day 1 and one that certainly raised some eyebrows in the moment and even now, a few days removed.

Giants Target Bloodlines

Less of a true evaluative takeaway and more just something that stood out when you zoomed out on the class, but the San Francisco Giants quietly leaned into bloodlines in this year’s draft. You go pick-by-pick and it almost hits you at once “oh, they did it again.” I counted five in total with Kaden Waechter (3rd), Peyton Bonds (4th), Luke Nixon (5th), Josiah Kemp (12th) and Dalton Wentz (16th), giving them a noticeable cluster of players with pro lineage, including Bonds (Barry’s nephew) and Kemp (Matt Kemp’s nephew). It’s not necessarily a signal of some major philosophical shift as it’s more likely just how the board fell but it does tap into at least something that was part of their process. Bloodlines don’t guarantee big league outcomes, but you can imagine how they can lower some of the risk variables whether its familiarity with the pro environment, more ingrained baseball instincts, and typically a longer track record around high-level development. So while it’s not driving decisions at the top of the board, it shows up on the margins and for the Giants, it showed up a lot this year.

-Joey Cohen

Royals take Rose #6 Overall

The first shock of the draft came early on in the process, as the Royals decided to take Zion Rose with the 6th overall pick in the draft. That selection comes with an allotted slot value of $7.75 million. Obviously, the plan was to go underslot here (and they did, signing Rose for $5.81 million) to open up the board a bit for them later in the draft. There was a good bit of confusion amongst the public space on taking Rose in this spot, and a lot of that overshadowed the caliber of player he is. Rose would hit .417 this spring, posting a 1.137 OPS and walked more than he struck out while swiping 24 bags. He’s a contact specialist that controls the barrel well both inside and out of the zone, limiting whiff as well as chase. There is an ability to impact the baseball, but the Pull AIR % still leaves a bit to be desired. He projects to left-field on the defensive side of things at the big league level. He may not be the flashy pick some of the Royals faithful were hoping for, but that was the draft strategy Kansas City deployed this year. It allowed them to go overslot on prep right-hander Jack Slightom, prep outfielder Dom Battista and double the slot value on college right-hander Dylan Vigue in the 7th.

Emerson Signing Bonus Record & Rays Splash on Preps

Emerson was in conversations to go 1:1 late in the process, but the White Sox stuck to their guns and selected Cholowsky. That meant Emerson fell in the Rays’ laps at #2, and with no hesitation did they select him and give him a record breaking $9.7 million dollars to sign out of high school. Emerson is as polished of a shortstop as you can find in the prep ranks, as there are 5 tools here you can project on at the big league level without having to squint to see the hit/power playing at the highest level. Getting Emerson here is a win. Looking down the board, it's fair to say the Rays don’t really have a prep/college bias in the draft at the top, as you can see the ebbs and flows over the years. There has been a more subtle shift to selecting more preps after the 1st round since ‘22, however. They took seven this year inside the top ten rounds after taking four the year previous. In ‘24 they selected three, and in ‘23/’22 it was just two. Taj Marchand is a high risk/high reward prep out of South Carolina that put pen to paper for $2.5 million. Gavin Giese and Collin Bland were selected back to back, and they dipped into Georgia for a pair of arms in Griffin Long and AJ Rice that both signed for $822k. They nabbed Tai Jones in the 9th too.

-Michael Albee

Rangers Spend Big on Prep Arms

Since Rangers’ general manager Chris Young took over in 2020, Texas’ drafts have focused heavily on college prospects, as well as some prep hitters. A relative blind spot, however, has been taking high school arms at the top of recent drafts. In recent memory (2024-25), the Rangers have taken exactly one prep arm in the first three rounds, Josh Owens, a two-way player out of Tennessee. This year, Texas selected two prep arms, Florida southpaw Gio Rojas and Massachusetts flamethrower Brody Bumila. Rojas has long established himself as a top pitcher in the 2026 class, including a deceptive delivery and advanced pitch mix with a fastball up to 98. He pairs the heater with a sharp slider and a distant change-up, giving the Rangers a good amount of clay to work with. Rojas was signed for $4.6 million. Bumila learned he would need UCL surgery late in the cycle, raising questions about his next steps and college commitment. Texas took a chance, paying him $2.75 million ($1.85 over slot) after selecting him with the 89th pick. Bumila is a towering 6-foot-9 southpaw with a power fastball that has reached 100, possessing a strong change-up and shorter slider.

Sawyer Strosnider Drops to No. 66

At the beginning of the draft cycle, Strosnider appeared as one of the more tooled-up players in the class, with a track record of hitting at the power four level. Overall, teams shied away from taking hitters with swing-and-miss concerns, something Strosnider has battled throughout his two seasons at TCU. However, the left-handed outfielder possesses a dynamic blend of power, speed, and arm strength. Strosnider posted a .273 batting average, a mark that most evaluators hoped he would raise by season’s end. He slugged 24 homers over two seasons in Fort Worth, posting a 1.040 OPS, swiping 22 bags. Strosnider has a patient approach at the plate, striking out as much as he walked in 2026, but showed some in-zone and out-of-zone whiff. The Brewers are likely happy to get him, signing him to an overslot deal at $2.1 million (slot value $1.35 million).

Pirates Switch to High Floor/Low Ceiling Approach

Pittsburgh made a splash in recent drafts, taking perceived “risky” high schoolers with the selections of shortstop Konnor Griffin and righty Seth Hernandez. Throughout their draft cycles, both had question marks that have been answered to this point, most notably Griffin’s swing-and-miss concerns. Hernandez, however, received pushback for his demographic alone. Prep right-handed pitchers have long been a risk/reward selection, with some notable busts at the top of draft classes throughout the 2010s. The Pirates recognized that Griffin and Hernandez have elite tools that they trusted to develop, and it has worked out to this point. This year, Pittsburgh took a different approach, selecting LSU outfielder Derek Curiel fifth overall. Curiel has an advanced hit tool, along with outfield defense that should give him a shot to stick in center. The impact has been a question, but Curiel has hit at every stop. In the second, they took New York shortstop Aiden Ruiz, the best defender in the class. Ruiz’s glove should get him to the big leagues alone, with an intriguing swing from both sides. In the supplemental second and fourth, they took Auburn’s Chris Rembert and UNC’s Jason DeCaro, both with high-floor profiles.

-Ryan Miller

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Draft | Story | 7/20/2026

2026 MLB Draft: Roster Challenge

Tyler Henninger

With the 2026 MLB Draft complete, our own draft team put together a fun exercise. Using a snake style draft format, we each had to build a roster using players selected in the 2026 MLB Draft. There was one catch. Each team could select only one player from each of the first 10 rounds, plus one player from Rounds 11-20. You did not have to go in order of each round, meaning you could jump between rounds and pick which players you thought had the most value. Each team installed a different strategy, balancing between star power, positional value, and depth. You tell us, which team do you think has the most talent? Team Albee C: Vahn Lackey, Georgia Tech (1st rd) 1B: Will Adams, Hoover HS (11th rd) MIF: Cole Prosek, Magnolia Heights HS (2nd rd) MIF: Eric Guevara, Auburn (7th rd) 3B: Robert Omidi, Fieldhouse Pirates (8th rd) OF: Kevin Roberts Jr, Jackson Prep HS (4th rd) OF: Alex...