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Draft  | Story | 4/14/2010

Pomeranz’s Ascent

Patrick Ebert
In a year light on lefties, Drew Pomeranz of Ole Miss is making the most of his opportunities to put an exclamation point at the top of the list of draft-eligible southpaws. Coming off a brilliant15-strikeout performance over Georgia, he is currently 6-0 and sporting a 1.57 ERA. In eight starts, spanning 51.2 innings, he has given up only 32 hits and 20 walks while striking out 80 batters.

Those 80 strikeouts currently lead the nation, six ahead of Asher Wojciechowski’s 74 and nine ahead of fire-balling sophomore sensation Gerrit Cole.

Now listed at 6-foot-5, 230-pounds, Pomeranz has added weight and strength since arriving on campus as a lanky, 190-pound 18-year-old three years ago. Coming out of high school, he was the top prep player out of Tennessee, the same year that fellow lefty David Price went first overall in the draft out of Vanderbilt.

At the time, Drew’s brother Stuart was a promising pitcher of similar size and stature in the Cardinals’ organization after being selected in the second round of the 2003 draft, and while the younger Pomeranz looked better and better as the spring progressed in 2007, the Rangers couldn’t sway him from attending Ole Miss after taking him in the 12th round of the ’07 draft.

Last Friday’s game was a rematch between Pomeranz and Georgia ace Justin Grimm from the first round of last year’s SEC Tournament. Georgia got the best of Pomeranz in that game last year, the last time he has taken a loss for the Rebels.

Reports had Pomeranz’s fastball sitting in the 91-94 range, much as it’s been all season, maintaining that velocity deep into his appearance, settling in the 89-91 range in his last inning of work. He also is throwing a very sharp curveball this year, something he has improved upon since arriving on campus. He did a great job playing between the two pitches to upset the timing of the opposing hitters, who couldn’t catch up with his heater even when he threw it down the pipe.

The only run scored off him in this game came on a ball misplayed by Mississippi’s right fielder, Matt Smith. Smith aggressively charged a bloop hit off the bat of Bulldogs’ shortstop Kyle Farmer that dropped in for a single in front of him, and the ball proceeded to roll to the outfield wall. Second baseman Levi Hyams scored from first, and Farmer ended up with an RBI triple in the box score.

Pomeranz quite simply was dominant. As noted, the opposing batters couldn’t catch up with his fastball, and given the way he was throwing his curveball, they didn’t have much of a chance in this contest. He appeared cool and confident on the mound, and the few times he got into a little bit of trouble he just bore down, focused on the batter instead of the base runner, and quickly wiped them out via strikes.

It was the second time this year Pomeranz has recorded 15 strikeouts in a ballgame, the first time coming in late February against Oakland. He is an early favorite for the Golden Spikes award, and along with Saturday starter Aaron Barrett, Pomeranz is helping carry a team that lost nine key contributors from last year’s squad.

That team got knocked out of the Super Regionals by Virginia, and Pomeranz nearly pitched the Rebels to Omaha all by himself. He started three of Ole Miss’ seven postseason games after the SEC tournament, going 2-0 in the Regionals and leaving the second game in the Super Regionals after the seventh inning against Virginia with the lead (a game Ole Miss lost after his departure).

In those three games he tossed 24 innings, giving up only three earned runs, 14 hits and six walks while striking out 36 batters (he struck out 16 in a complete-game effort against Western Kentucky that allowed Ole Miss to advance to the Super Regionals).

He carried that success into the summer, serving as Team USA’s ace. The only loss he suffered in five starts came against the Japanese Collegiate all-stars in which none of the six runs he allowed were earned (although the error that led to those runs was his own).

Overall last summer he went 4-1 with a 1.75 ERA, posting a 48-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 25 innings. He struck out 10 or more batters in three of his appearances, which included a 17-strikeout performance over Guatemala, and a 12-strikeout performance over Germany in Team USA’s last game of the season to claim the World Baseball Challenge in Prince George, British Columbia.

If you tally up the stats from his last three games to close out the 2009 season, his five appearances with Team USA and his eight starts so far this year, this is how the numbers look:

12-1, 1.51 ERA, 101.1 innings, 50 hits, 164 strikeouts, 35 walks

If you want to quibble and try to find something to complain about, you could point to his workload, as he was inserted as a weekend starter early in his freshman year and has been logging a lot of innings since. However, he has been extremely durable during that time, and it’s unlikely that he would pitch much this summer even if he does sign quickly with whichever team ends up selecting him.

And while I don’t have any insider scoops to back this up at this point in time, and it still remains a little too early to try and pair players to teams in mid-April, if I had to guess where Pomeranz goes in the upcoming draft, my money is on him being selected by the Pittsburgh Pirates with the second overall pick.

Take a look at the Pirates’ recent track record:

They haven’t selected a high school player with their first overall pick (and they have been picking amongst the top four overall selections the past four years) since 2005 when they selected Andrew McCutchen 11th overall.

Even though they took Pedro Alvarez in 2008, one year after being endlessly criticized for passing on Matt Wieters, money issues have been a constant for them as well. They reached for picks such as Daniel Moskos and Tony Sanchez in 2007 and last year, respectively, signing both players quickly for slot or less than slot value (in the Pirates’ defense, they did do a good job a year ago signing several players from the later rounds for money comparable to an early-round pick). Pomeranz shouldn’t pose as great of a signing risk, and potentially would sign quickly (or at least eventually) for slot value instead of aiming to break the bank.

The Pirates also have been known to place a preference toward left-handed pitching, actively seeking out southpaws and having a pretty decent track record in developing them (Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, Sean Burnett, Tom Gorzelanny, John Grabow).

Even if Bryce Harper doesn’t go first overall, recent history would suggest that the Pirates would pass on both he and Jameson Taillon, the two players the Nationals have reportedly zeroed in on for the first overall pick. They also would be unlikely to select Anthony Ranaudo, given his representation. While Florida Gulf Coast’s Chris Sale, also a college lefty, could also be an option, I don’t think too many scouting directors would select Sale ahead of Pomeranz if given the choice.

Again, this is all speculation on my part, but there are some obvious trends to point to in trying to determine where Pomeranz may eventually be taken.

And of course there are a lot of games left to be played, but the way Pomeranz has pitched since the end of last year, there is nothing to suggest that anything will change between now and early June. Few pitchers in the college game, if any, have been as dominant.

Grimm holding his own
The entire SEC is loaded with power arms. That may not be that surprising of a statement given the usual depth in talent the conference boasts, but both this year’s draft and next year’s could see several arms go in the first round.

That wealth of talent is well-chronicled here at Perfect Game, but look no further than Justin Grimm’s last two opponents, Anthony Ranaudo and Drew Pomeranz, to get an idea of how tough it is to compete on a weekly basis. This coming Friday, Grimm is scheduled to face Drew Smyly and a surging Arkansas team, and Georgia also has yet to face South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Florida.

Inconsistency has always been a problem for Grimm, who has flashed moments of brilliance throughout his career. He was one of the top prospects last summer pitching on the Cape almost for his upside alone, but continued to frustrate onlookers for his inability to carry one successful start to the next. A stress fracture in his pitching elbow in high school caused him to miss most of his junior year, and he wasn’t able to pitch enough after his return to the mound at the 2007 Perfect Game Indoor Showcase to be drafted high enough to sway him away from Georgia.

He may not have been as dominant, but he nearly matched Pomeranz pitch-for-pitch on Friday night. Since conference play has opened, he has looked much better after losing his Friday spot when he gave up seven earned runs in four innings against Florida State during the team’s third weekend series of this season. He re-claimed the spot against Ranaudo and LSU two weeks ago after earning a pair of victories on Saturdays versus Auburn and Mississippi State.

In his last two starts he has been throwing his curveball very well, and he is doing a good job dropping the pitch in for strikes. He’s also doing a nice job maintaining the break and release point on the pitch, and with it he’s able to work off of his fastball better so the opposing hitters aren’t teeing off on it.

Grimm opened the year as a potential mid first-round pick, and while he has the talent to warrant that early of a selection, continued inconsistency likely makes him a better pick later in the first or possibly in the supplemental round. The talent has always been there, so it is encouraging to see him have successful, back-to-back outings. Should that continue for the rest of the spring, he may just find himself back in the discussion for the middle part of the first round.

Overall, Georgia is arguably the most disappointing team in all of college baseball this year, but its roster is loaded with young talent. I expect this team to re-group and finish strong as many of their young hitters progress and make the necessary adjustments as Grimm has. While the postseason isn’t likely to be attainable after an 11-21 start, don’t be surprised to see this team enjoy much better fortunes a year from now.
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and 5 Tool Talk, and can be contacted via email at pebert@5tooltalk.com.

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