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College  | Story | 4/2/2010

Tennessee Talent Part 2: Alex Meyer vs. Jack Armstrong

Patrick Ebert
As I waited to hear news of Anthony Ranaudo’s return from injury, and before Alex Meyer had been bumped back to Kentucky’s Sunday starter after opening the season as the team’s Friday ace, I had planned on catching the Friday game of the Kentucky/Vanderbilt series (which I ended up seeing anyway) to see the projected matchup between Meyer and Vandy ace Sonny Gray. While Meyer started the season strong, he struggled to be consistently effective, and switched places with junior Logan Darnell in the Wildcats’ weekend rotation.

And Meyer wasn’t even supposed to be the Friday starter to open the season, a spot that was expected to be occupied by James Paxton before he left the school under the watchful eye of the NCAA because of his relationship with an agent.

Due to some bad storms that approached the Nashville area, Sunday’s game got bumped up to Saturday, as most of the teams in the area hosted doubleheaders to avoid potential postponements and cancellations.

Regardless of the circumstances (a recurring theme in my travels), Meyer certainly has the prototypical size, and then some, and stuff, of such an ace.

Listed at 6-foot-9, 220-pounds, the Kentucky basketball team could have used Meyer on Saturday night after getting knocked out out of the NCAA tournament by West Virginia. He is extremely projectable to the point of nearly being rail thin through the waist, although with broad shoulders there is clearly more room to add more strength. That said, he doesn’t appear to look much different than he did in high school.

His fastball matches his stature, as he touched 97 a handful of times in his six-inning appearance against Vanderbilt, although all of those instances came in the first two innings of the game. He did hit 96 quite often, again, more so in the early innings, settling in at 93-95 for the rest of the game.

As exciting as that velocity may be, his 81-83 slider is an equally intimidating pitch, and I clocked one offering as high as 86 in the first inning. It showed great two-plane break and he also showed pretty good feel for it. He got robbed of some calls from the umpire in this game, as the scouts that were at the game questioned if the ump was even awake, or had ever seen a big-league breaking ball.

To the umpire’s defense, it’s not as though Meyer had established mastery of the strike zone with either his fastball or slider. He was effectively wild, as some hitters seemed to approach the plate as though they were content drawing a walk knowing how difficult it was to catch up to his stuff.

His arm action is lightning quick, and while he was clearly throwing harder in the early innings, I could see him maintaining his velocity deeper into ballgames as he continues to master some of the finer nuances to pitching while pacing himself better. There is some fiery intensity, and a little bit of cockiness to his game, although he is not openly emotional on the mound.

None of this is a surprise for the Greensburg, Indiana native who was impressive at both the 2007 Perfect Game National Showcase and the Aflac All-American Classic the same summer. He should have been a first-round pick coming out of high school, and turned down early-round money as a 20th rounder of the Boston Red Sox from the 2008 draft.

Meyer obviously needs to work on his command, and hopefully for him experience will help correct that. He didn’t pitch last summer after assuming a rather full workload during his freshman year pitching out of the Wildcats’ weekend rotation, but I’m guessing he will be one of the more closely followed arms this coming summer. He has the legitimate stuff of a staff ace and the size to maintain that velo deep into ballgames. His fastball-slider combo is devastating enough to succeed as a closer if all else fails, but that shouldn’t come into any conversation until much further down the road.

On the day he went six innings, giving up five hits, two walks and three earned runs. He struck out six batters, and despite the fact that he could have been a little more efficient, he only tossed 88 innings, and may have gone deeper if the day hadn’t gotten drastically cooler between the beginning of the game and his departure.

Similar to Meyer, Jack Armstrong also starred at the ’07 Perfect Game National Showcase and Aflac All-American Classic, and offers a similar, towering athletic build at 6-foot-6, 225 pounds. A great overall athlete (be sure to check out him doing a backflip on YouTube), basketball was a much more realistic collegiate option for him than it was for Meyer coming out of high school, and that, along with his strong academic commitment to Vanderbilt, played a part in Armstrong falling to the Rangers in the 36th round of the 2008 draft.

He didn’t see much time during his freshman year, appearing in only six games, but he made the most of his summer on the Cape, appearing in the league’s all-star game and regularly throwing his heater in the low-to-mid-90s, touching a few ticks higher than that on occasion.

Armstrong didn’t maintain that kind of velocity in this game, and reportedly hasn’t done so this year so far. I wouldn’t be overly concerned about that unless he doesn’t show that velocity again this summer, as there is nothing in his delivery or mechanics that leads me to believe that there is anything wrong with him physically.

He sat in the 89-92 range, and touched 94 a couple of times in the first inning. Similar to Meyer, he had some issues commanding this pitch, and on a few instances he showed the ability to take a little off of his fastball for added movement.

At times he fell a little too in love with his curveball which sat at 74-75. He seemed to have much better feel for this pitch, dropping it in nicely for strikes. The Wildcats hitters seemed to recognize this as well, and started to hit Armstrong pretty hard in the third inning, plating six runs in the frame. All of the runs that scored weren’t entirely his fault, as a costly error and a few other sloppy plays led to him throwing a lot more pitches than he should have.

I only saw him throw two or three changeups in this game, which were pretty easy to recognize. The pitch didn’t seem to help his cause on this day as none of them were thrown for strikes, and it didn’t do much to upset the timing of the opposing hitters since they were clearly looking for either Armstrong’s fastball or curveball. I’ve seen him throw this pitch with a lot more confidence in the past, and since his stuff isn’t as over-powering as Meyer’s (or Gray’s), he will need it to be more effective moving forward.

He settled back in for the fourth and fifth innings to finish his day, of which he allowed 10 hits, seven runs (all earned, but as noted above, he shouldn’t have had to take credit for all of them) and no walks while striking out five. It took 84 pitches to get through those five frames, which isn’t that bad considering how many runs he gave up, and even when he departed it looked as though he may have gone a little deeper if Vandy hadn’t been down by so many runs (not to mention both teams had relatively fresh bullpens to turn to after crisp pitching efforts the first two games of the series).

Armstrong has a lot of good things going for him, starting with his natural athleticism and his stature to his solid three-pitch repertoire and ability to throw harder than he did on this day. I will be interested to see if his velocity creeps back up as the spring progresses and into the summer, and if it does he should continue to have his name be in the conversation for the first round, and possibly the top 10 overall picks, of the 2011 draft.

Vanderbilt Head Coach Tim Corbin made sure his entire bullpen got work to close out the series, and in the sixth he first turned to sophomore right-hander Will Clinard to spell Armstrong. Clinard sat in the 86-89 range with his heater that was rather straight and left up in the zone. His best pitch was a sharp 79-82 slider, and that pitch alone should keep him on scouts’ radars.

Lefty Corey Williams came on next, who also came on in relief in Friday’s game as profiled earlier this week. His fastball-curveball combo looked exactly the same 24 hours later as he quickly worked through the seventh.

Right-hander Drew Hayes came on in the eighth and showed a nice sinker-slider repertoire as he clearly valued the benefits of pitching down in the zone. His fastball was thrown 88-91 with his slider checking in around 80 mph. That’s not particularly hard for a bullpen righty at the next level, but I liked his approach to pitching, and would be interested to see if he also throws a changeup to be tried as a starter at the next level (he has made two starts this season).

As Vanderbilt scored two runs in the bottom of the eighth to pull within a run of the Wildcats, veteran southpaw Richie Goodenow was brought on in the ninth with the Wildcats two best hitters, Chad Wright and Chris Bisson, both of whom swing left-handed, scheduled to hit. As good as Goodenow has been this season, he didn’t look particularly sharp in this game, and the lefty-lefty matchup didn’t work as planned, as Wright singled to open the inning and Bisson walked.

Closer Russell Brewer was called upon to limit the damage, and after he got a quick out from slugging two-way prospect Braden Kapetyn, he too struggled to command the strike zone. He ended up walking the next two batters, which caused another Wildcat baserunner to cross the plate, increasing their lead to two runs.

Brewer has never been known for throwing hard, but I’ve seen him throw harder than the 86-90 he threw in this game. His slider sat in the upper 70s, but it wasn’t particularly sharp, and he didn’t seem to have the usual sink on his fastball. In his defense, this was the second time he pitched on the day, having appeared in the first game of the double-header. I know Coach Corbin hoped that Goodenow would have been more effective to prevent the need to turn to Brewer.

Navery Moore became the third pitcher to take the mound in the ninth inning for Vanderbilt, and fortunately for the Commodores he was able to put an end to the inning before it got ugly. Needing to record only one out he came out firing fastballs, hitting 92 a few times before retiring Andy Burns on a 93 mph fastball. He threw one slider that also looked very good, and I hope to get a better look at physically imposing Moore in the future.

Kentucky Head Coach Gary Henderson didn’t deplete his bullpen like Corbin did, but Henderson did quickly turn to his best bullpen arm hoping to salvage the last game of the series: Matt Little.

Little is appropriately named, listed at 5-foot-10 and 180-pounds. He has been nearly unhittable this year, giving up only eight hits in 21 innings of work, and only one of those hits went for extra bases.

His fastball sat in the 88-91 range in his 2-plus innings of work, but his best pitch by far was a 79-81 slider that had excellent late break. One concern is his delivery, as he defines ‘max effort’ with a deceptive, low three-quarters delivery. He lands somewhat upright and he appears to throw across his body.

It’s easy to see why he enjoys success, as not only is his slider dominant, but he also hides the ball well and it explodes out of his hand. That makes his fastball appear to be thrown much harder than it is.

Unfortunately even Kentucky’s best and most reliable bullpen arm was unable to close out the game for the Wildcats. He gave up four of the Commodores final five runs between the eighth and ninth innings, giving way with one out to Nick Kennedy, who was called upon to face Vanderbilt’s most dangerous hitter, third baseman Jason Esposito.

And it quickly looked as though that plan would work, as Kennedy induced a routine groundball to second base that Chris Bisson makes 99 times out of 100. On this play of course, he did not, and Esposito reached.

Four batters later, Esposito crossed homeplate when second baseman Riley Reynolds drew a two-out, bases-loaded walk. Vanderbilt came back in dramatic fashion, at one point down by seven runs, to win the game, and sweep the series.

The Bats
While the pitching talent clearly out-weighed the number and quality of hitters that both teams boast, there were several promising hitters that I kept a close eye on.

Vanderbilt third baseman Jason Esposito as just mentioned above has the best chance of making the biggest impact as a professional. Physically he stands out from the crowd, as it’s clear he makes the weight room a priority on a daily basis. He has gotten significantly bigger than he was a year ago, and my only concern would be that he needs to put a greater emphasis on flexibility and shouldn’t get too bulky in his weight-lifting efforts.

He looks like a big-league hitter with sloped shoulders and the visible confidence and comfort as he takes the batter’s box. While he didn’t have a lot of chances in either game, he appears to be a little stiff at the hot corner, and may have to move to an outfield corner at the next level.

That won’t be a decision that needs to be made anytime soon, and where he ends up defensively won’t be too big of an issue since his bat is how he’ll earn his paychecks. He has very strong wrists and naturally explosive bat speed that gives him exciting power potential. He had only two hits on the series, but hit a couple of loud outs and scored three runs in the final game of the series.

Esposito is only a sophomore, and while he doesn’t have Pedro Alvarez’ upside offensively, he has done a nice job filling in at third base since Alvarez departure.

Juniors Aaron Westlake and Curt Casali, as well as sophomore Joe Loftus, form the rest of the middle of Vanderbilt’s everyday lineup, and all three have some promising tools to build off of, although much more limited than Esposito’s.

In particular, I really like Westlake’s left-handed bat and approach at the plate, although he really struggled to make contact in this series and appears to be a liability both defensively and on the basepaths with not much foot speed to speak of. I also wonder how much power is in his swing since he’s limited to either left field or first base, but he should hit his way through the lower levels of the minor leagues.

Kentucky second baseman Chris Bisson may have been the best draft-eligible player for this June in attendance. It was hard not to feel bad for the guy making such a crucial error late in the game as detailed above, as he really is a premium defender at second base. He looks really natural turning the second base pivot on double plays, and with good foot speed and quickness, he has very good range to both sides.

That speed serves him well on the basepaths too, leading the Cape in swipes last summer and stealing two bags on this day.

He is a left-handed hitter that gets out of the box and down the first-base line quickly. There isn’t much power in his swing, but he makes hard contact to the gaps. He had three RBI in this game, with a two-run double in the third and an RBI single in the fourth, both off of Armstrong. His disciplined approach is his best asset at the plate, as he’s able to work the count, draw walks and give the rest of his team a good look at a pitcher while he’s in the batter’s box.

Sophomore Braden Kapetyn started the first game as the DH for the Wildcats, but only came on as a pinch hitter in the next two games of the series. He is built tall and strong with a well-proportioned, athletic frame. He didn’t have too much success in his five plate appearances, but he did put an easy swing on a Sonny Gray curveball in the first game that just missed squeaking in the right-field foul pole. The easy power and bat speed is just as evident as his stature, although I was disappointed that I didn’t have the opportunity to see him pitch in the series.

Following third baseman Andy Burns for two summers in the Northwoods League, including the summer after his senior year in high school, has caused me to follow his collegiate career more closely. The results so far haven’t been particularly strong, although his power numbers have been respectable. I’d like to see him stay within himself a little better and not swing for the fences as much as he does. He has enough bat speed and natural power for the home runs to come naturally, as working the count and going with what he’s given would help his productivity tremendously.

While I initially intended to see a lot more impact talent available for this year’s draft when I started making the plans for this trip, it turns out that the majority of the impact talent that I saw figures to go early in the 2011 draft.

Sonny Gray and Alex Meyer have special arms and should be considered locks to go in the first round. Jack Armstrong isn’t quite as electric as those two, but he’s not far behind. Jason Esposito could push his name into first-round consideration, and I really was impressed with what I briefly saw of Navery Moore and Braden Kapetyn.

The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and 5 Tool Talk, and can be contacted via email at pebert@5tooltalk.com.
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