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College  | Story | 3/23/2010

COLLEGE 2010: Early Impressions

Jeff Simpson
With a little more than a month of the 2010 college baseball season in the books, I thought it was an appropriate time to take a look at how some teams have done, especially when compared to some pre-season predictions.

Two Pacific-10 Conference teams, Arizona State and UCLA, have been outstanding in the early going, and are the nation’s last two undefeated teams. Arizona State is 20-0, UCLA 16-0. On the flip side, two Big East and Southeastern Conference teams have had unexpected struggles in the early going.

I’ll take a look at five teams that have exceeded expectations in the early going, and five that are struggling to find their way.

EARLY-SEASON SURPRISES
1. UCLA (16-0)
Trying to predict how UCLA will do has often been anybody’s guess the last few years, but it appears the Bruins have finally figured it out. The team, ranked No. 16 in PG Crosschecker’s pre-season Top 100, missed the post-season last year with a 27-29 record overall, despite going 15-12 in Pac-10 play. Last year’s problems against non-conference competition, which included a 10-game losing streak, seems to be a distant memory as the 2010 Bruins remain undefeated.

As expected, the team’s pitching staff has been outstanding this season with a 2.13 ERA. The starting rotation of sophomore RHPs Gerrit Cole (5-0, 2.20, 32 IP/49 K) and Trevor Bauer (4-0, 2.05, 30 IP/47 K), along with junior LHP Rob Rasmussen (2-0, 2.79, 19 IP), has been the most dominant in the country. Cole and Bauer are projected first-rounders in 2011, while Rasmussen has an outside chance to be a first-rounder this year.

The success of UCLA’s pitching staff has come as little surprise, but the team’s offense has really opened eyes. The Bruins have posted an eye-popping .370 team batting average to date, with 10 regulars hitting at least .333. This finally looks like the year where the Bruins have all the tools in place to make a deep post-season run.

2. Arizona State (20-0)
There is no denying the depth of talent on Arizona State’s roster this spring, but it would be understandable if the Sun Devils didn’t live up to expectations after long-time coach Pat Murphy’s abrupt departure from the team in November. Ranked No. 9 by PG Crosschecker to start the season, interim coach Tim Esmay has kept the ball rolling, even with senior LHP Josh Spence, the projected Friday starter, sidelined with arm soreness.

As usual, Arizona State features one of the nation’s most-relentless offensive attacks with 2B Zack MacPhee (.484-3-28) and 1B Zach Wilson (.441-2-21), both sophomores, leading the charge. The Sun Devils’ future looks especially bright as the top five hitters are all sophomores.

Despite the loss of Spence, a third-round pick in the 2009 draft, the pitching staff has shown no signs of a letdown with a 2.97 team ERA. Junior RHP Seth Blair (3-0, 2.89, 28 IP), the new Friday starter, and sophomore RHP Jake Borup (5-0, 2.42, 26 IP), a surprise Sunday starter, have both started strong, while sophomore RHP Jordan Swagerty (0-0, 0.73, 7 SV, 12 IP) has been very effective as a closer in the early going. All three have significantly enhanced their value for the draft in June.

3. Clemson (17-2)
The Tigers checked in at No. 21 in the pre-season rankings, an acknowledgement that a talented, but young team might be a year away from being a dominant factor nationally. But the team has come together faster than expected. Over the past three weeks, the Tigers have taken two of three games from arch-rival South Carolina, while opening the Atlantic Coast Conference season with impressive sweeps over North Carolina State and Virginia Tech.

Balance is the key for Clemson, which has been strong at the plate (.316 team BA) and on the mound. (.347 ERA). The team’s weekend rotation has been especially impressive as junior LHP Casey Harman (4-0, 1.86; 29 IP) has stepped nicely into the Friday role, while two sophomores, LHP Will Lamb (2-0, 2.08; 21 IP) and RHP Scott Weismann (3-0, 2.96; 27 IP), round out the weekend rotation. Clemson’s starting quarterback, junior OF Kyle Parker (.414-9-21), has been on an early-season tear and may have an interesting dilemma on his hands in June as he chance to go in the early rounds of the draft.

4. Southeastern Louisiana (18-2)
The Lions, unranked in the pre-season, stormed out of the gates by winning their first 11 games, highlighted by a three-game sweep of Mississippi State. At 5-1, they have continued to play well in the Southland Conference, and would now have to be considered the clear favorite to win the conference title.

The team’s pitching staff has been solid, posting a 3.32 team ERA. Junior RHP Brandon Efferson (5-0, 1.87; 33 IP) has been outstanding in a starting role this spring, while sophomore RHP Josh Janway (2-0, 2.35, 4 SV, 23 IP) and senior RHP Chris Franklin (1-1, 2.49, 5 SV; 21 IP) give the Lions two formidable arms out of the bullpen.

5. Virginia Military (18-2)
Most thought it was a foregone conclusion that No. 11 Coastal Carolina (17-3) would run though Big South Conference play, but the Keydets might have something to say as they have stormed to an outstanding start. Putting runs on the board has not been a problem as the Keydets are hitting .372 as a team and averaging 10 runs a game. Freshman IF Cory Spangenberg (.420-5-23; 14-15 SB), junior OF Graham Sullivan (.407-5-25) and junior SS/RHP Sam Roberts (.388-7-32) are three players who are having outstanding seasons.

EARLY-SEASON DISAPPOINTMENTS

1. Georgia (8-12)
Where do you start with a Georgia squad that is loaded with young, but inexperienced everyday talent and has had a complete breakdown on a veteran pitching staff?
A team ERA that ballooned to 8.22 after the Bulldogs were swept on the opening weekend of SEC play by Auburn, belies the fact that Georgia has a number of quality arms that should factor prominently in this year’s draft. The starting rotation of junior RHP Justin Grimm (1-2, 5.16), sophomore RHP Michael Palazzone (3-2, 9.15) and senior RHP Jeff Walters (0-2, 9.58) have all been heavily scouted, yet have struggled. The bullpen, with more unproven arms, hasn’t been much better.

With a .129 batting average, sophomore OF Chase Davidson’s struggles at the plate have been symbolic of the team’s entire offense. He was an unsigned third-round pick two years ago and expected to be a key contributor this spring for Georgia, ranked No. 28 in the pre-season by PG Crosschecker.

2. James Madison (7-10)
James Madison was ranked No. 33 in the pre-season and expected to win the Colonial Athletic Association with a potentially-dominating pitching staff. But with a 7.97 ERA, the Dukes have been plagued all season by suspect pitching—and may be the one team that has been impacted most by the unusually poor weather that has plagued the eastern states.

Junior RHP Kevin Munson (1-0, 0.61, 3 SV, 14 IP), a top prospect in this year’s draft, has lived up to expectations and is still considered one of the nation’s top relievers. But a second junior RHP, Turner Phelps (1-3, 9.97), has struggled. Despite its rough start, JMU’s situation does not appear to be nearly as dire as Georgia’s as it faces a much more manageable conference slate and should still make a run at a CAA championship.

3. South Florida (7-13)
A trendy choice to challenge Louisville for the Big East championship, No. 32 South Florida got off to an ugly 1-9 start against a tough non-conference slate. The Bulls have been a little out of sync at the plate with just a .276 team average, and have dropped several low-scoring games.

Of all teams on this list, the Bulls might have the brightest outlook as their pitching staff has actually not been the problem. Junior LHP Andrew Barbosa (1-1, 3.23, 30 IP), senior LHP Teddy Kaufman (2-1, 3.27) and junior RHP Randy Fontanez (0-4, 4.28, 33 IP) have all been solid, despite some tough-luck starts.

4. Notre Dame (7-11)
Along with South Florida, the Irish was expected to be Louisville’s main competition in the Big East this year. It has played a tough non-conference schedule, but Notre Dame was swept at home this past weekend by Michigan State, and is averaging less than three runs per game in its 11 losses. Senior 1B Casey Martin (.421-3-16) is having a strong year at the plate, but the rest of the team is hitting just .288 overall.

The pitching staff has been solid, if unspectacular. Junior RHP Brian Dupra (2-1, 4.76), sophomore LHP Steve Sabatino (1-2, 3.38) and senior RHP Eric Maust (0-1, 4.63) have held their own, but junior RHP Cole Johnson (1-3, 9.47), who started out as the team’s Friday starter, has struggled mightily and it will be important for him to return to form in Big East action.

5. Tennessee (10-10)
There are several talented players for the 2010 draft on the Volunteers roster, but things have been slow to click for the Volunteers, fresh off being swept by South Carolina in the opening weekend of SEC play. While the pitching staff seems to have found a little more consistency that it lacked in another inconsistent season last year, the bats have not come alive as expected. As a team, the Volunteers are hitting just .266.

Much like Georgia’s unenviable task, Tennessee faces a challenge digging out of an early hole in the highly-competitive SEC. With LSU, Mississippi and Florida on the slate the next three weekends, the Volunteers will need to figure things out quickly.
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College | Rankings | 6/25/2026

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