Florida Teams Heavily Favored

The 2010 NCAA Division II World Series officially returns to Cary, N.C., the home base for USA Baseball, but likely not before passing through Florida first.

Teams from Florida’s powerful Sunshine State Conference have won four of the last five national D-II tournaments, including upstart Lynn University in 2009. The Boca Raton-based Fighting Knights dismantled traditional national powers Florida Southern and Tampa in the South regional last year before going on to beat Kansas’ Emporia State, 2-1, in the national final to capture their first championship.

Lynn returns the two pitchers – 15-game winner Dan Wright and hard-throwing closer Tommy Kahnle – who combined to win the decisive final game a year ago. But the Fighting Knights aren’t even favored this time around to make it out of Florida, let alone be in Cary to defend their national title. Florida Southern and Tampa have assembled deeper and more powerful clubs, and are heavily favored to carry the torch for Florida at the national final, set for May 22-29.

In PG Crosschecker’s unofficial pre-season ranking of the top 10 Division II teams, Florida Southern is ranked No. 1 and Tampa No. 2. Lynn is a mere No. 10. The Sunshine State Conference’s own pre-season poll has it as almost a dead heat with Tampa predicted to finish first with 116 points, Florida Southern second at 110 and Lynn third at 109.

Between them, Florida Southern (9) and Tampa (5) have combined to win 14 national D-II championships, including consecutive titles in 2005 (Florida Southern) and 2006-07 (Tampa). Both schools open their 2010 seasons today.

The lofty pre-season ranking of both Florida Southern (41-16 in 2009) and Tampa (39-17) is all about talent as PG Crosschecker’s ranking of the top 60 prospects in Division II includes 10 players from the two schools – four from Florida Southern, six from Tampa.

Florida Southern’s potential dominance in 2010 is readily apparent as all four of its ranked prospects are among the top seven nationally. The quartet includes right-handed closer Daniel Tillman (4-2, 3.15, 12 SV, 54 IP/62 SO), ranked No. 1; left-handed starter Max Russell (10-2, 3.71, 104 IP/114 SO), ranked No. 3; shortstop Wade Kirkland (.321-11-45), ranked No. 5; and catcher Zach Maggard (.315-10-47), ranked No. 7. All are juniors and projected to be drafted in the top 10 rounds in June.

The 6-foot-1, 200-pound Tillman is a candidate to go as early as the second or third round. He pitched brilliantly in the Cape Cod League last summer, posting a 0.00 ERA with five saves in 16 appearances, while striking out 31 in 22 innings. He worked almost exclusively with one pitch, a low- to mid-90s fastball with good sinking action, but also showed the makings of an excellent changeup and even flashed an occasional slider, a third pitch he won’t need so long as he remains a closer.

As a prospect for this year’s draft, Tillman holds a slight edge over Lynn’s Kahnle, who went a modest 7-4, 4.54 as a red-shirt freshman in 2009, but was brilliant for the Fighing Knights down the stretch. He earned most outstanding player honors in both the South regional, where Lynn beat Florida Southern twice to advance to the D-II World Series, and in the national tournament. He saved the final game with two scoreless innings. In three appearances overall, he saved two games and worked eight scoreless innings.

Like Tillman, the 6-foot-2, 220-pound Kahnle stood out last summer in the Cape, working in the mid-90s all season and touching 99 mph in his final outing. While he clearly has impressive arm strength, Kahnle’s challenge this spring will be to develop his fastball command and a more consistent breaking ball. He could edge close to the first round if he can master those goals.

While Kahnle (like Tillman) projects as a closer in pro ball, he will move into the Lynn rotation this spring, joining Wright (15-2, 2.29, 122 IP/119 SO), who led the D-II ranks in wins a year ago and was third in strikeouts.

Tampa, meanwhile, should give Florida Southern all it can handle as it has bolstered its ranks with the addition of a number of transfers from Division I schools. Joining holdover third baseman Jared Simon (.387-9-53), lefthander Carmine Giardina (5-1, 6.15) and right-hander Josh Bowman (4-3, 4.96) are right-hander Austin Evans, formerly of Alabama; lefthander Sean Bierman, formerly of Vanderbilt; and outfielder Dylan Brown, formerly of Oklahoma State. All six Spartans are ranked among the nation’s top 60 prospects, with Bowman at No. 10 and Bierman at No. 11.

It goes without saying that there is an element of risk in projecting the outcome of teams – and even prospects – from the powerful Sunshine State Conference, with last year’s standings a perfect example.

Even with an impressive 46-16 record overall and national championship to its credit, Lynn could do no better than finish fourth in the conference a year ago at 14-10. Florida Southern placed second and Tampa third. The regular-season champion? None other than Barry University (18-6 in conference, 44-11 overall), which saw its season come to a sudden, premature end as it lost two straight games in South regional play.

So while the 2009 Division II season was all about a boy named Barry being upstaged by a girl named Lynn, the 2010 season is expected to return to its more traditional roots with traditional powers Florida Southern and Tampa expected to take center stage again.