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College  | Story | 3/25/2022

Week 6 College Picks and Preview

Vincent Cervino
Craig Cozart
Photo: Jacob Gonzalez (Ole Miss Athletics)
Top 25 in Action

Rank Team Opponent Location
1 Tennessee at #5 Ole Miss Oxford, Miss.
2 Vanderbilt at South Carolina Columbia, S.C.
3 Texas at No. 11 Texas Tech Lubbock, Texas
4 Oklahoma State vs. Kansas Stillwater, Okla.
5 Ole Miss vs. #1 Tennessee Oxford, Miss.
6 Arkansas at Missouri Columbia, Mo.
7 Oregon State at California Berkeley, Calif.
8 Virginia at #24 Wake Forest Winston-Salem, N.C.
9 Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech South Bend, Ind.
10 Florida State vs. Duke Tallahassee, Fla.
11 Texas Tech vs. #3 Texas Lubbock, Texas
12 Georgia Tech at North Carolina State Raleigh, N.C.
13 TCU vs. Kansas State Fort Worth, Texas
14 Florida vs. #21 LSU Gainesville, Fla.
15 Arizona vs. UCLA Tucson, Ariz.
16 Liberty vs. Stetson Lynchburg, Va.
17 North Carolina at #22 Miami Coral Gables, Fla.
18 UCONN vs. Rhode Island Storrs, Conn.
19 Louisville at Boston College Brighton, Mass.
20 Texas State vs. Coastal Carolina San Marcos, Texas
21 LSU at #14 Florida Gainesville, Fla.
22 Miami vs. #17 North Carolina Coral Gables, Fla.
23 Maryland at Dallas Baptist Dallas, Texas
24 Wake Forest vs. #8 Virginia Winston-Salem, N.C.
25 Clemson at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh, Pa.


Picks & Breakdowns

Matchup Vin's Picks Cozy's Picks
#1 Tennessee at #5 Ole Miss
#3 Texas at #11 Texas Tech
#21 LSU at #14 Florida
#17 North Carolina at #22 Miami
#23 Maryland at Dallas Baptist
VCU at East Carolina
Charlotte at Old Dominion
South Alabama at Louisiana Lafayette




No. 1 Tennessee at No. 5 Ole Miss 
Cozy's Pick: Tennessee 
The matchup in Oxford this weekend between the visiting Volunteers and the Rebels features two teams that are legitimate national title contenders.  Tennessee, as their ranking indicates, is the most complete team in the country.  They have won 12 in a row, currently sit 20-1 on the season and their only loss was back on March 4 against the Longhorns.  Offensively they lead the nation in team batting average, doubles per game, home runs per game and are second in runs scored.  Defensively they lead the nation in team ERA at 1.93 and with a .982 fielding percentage they just don’t give up many runs.  It’s terribly hard to bet against Ole Miss at home, they are 15-4 but are 6-4 in their last 10 games.  They do have an explosive offense slashing .310/.551/.427 and have swiped 19 bags.  However, the big difference in this series is on the defensive side, as the Rebels carry a 3.73 team ERA and are only fielding .963 on the season.  Swayze Field is the place to be this weekend and it will be a war.  Doubtful that the Vols keep their winning streak, but they find a way to win the series 2-of-3.

Vin’s Pick: Ole Miss
 Swayze is one of the toughest places to play in college baseball and this will be the first time that each of the Volunteers’ rotation members suit up in this hostile territory. On the other side of the coin, Ole Miss’ offense has been relentless, led by captain Tim Elko and super sophomore Jacob Gonzalez as they’ve done damage versus every opponent they’ve faced. On paper the Vols’ rotation has been superior to the Rebs’ but the home field advantage gives Ole Miss an edge as I think if they can get to the bullpen with the lead, then the Rebels should be able to take the series. 


No. 3 Texas at No. 11 Texas Tech 
Cozy's Pick: Texas Tech 
 Rip Griffin Park will be electric all weekend for this huge intrastate rivalry and the fans will surely be treated to some elite-level ball.  The Longhorns come into the weekend at 18-5 and are winners of five straight.  Texas Tech on the other hand has yet to lose a home contest in 2022 and are 18-4 so far.  Both streaks will likely come to an end over the next three games; the question is who wins the series.  Texas, like most elite teams are built around pitching and defense.  They give very little to their opponents with as 2.63 team ERA and they are fielding .986 which is good for seventh in the nation.  However, offensively they are scoring over two runs less per game on the road than at home.  The Red Raiders thrive at home as they feed off the amazing energy of their fan base and average a scary 13 runs per game on their own turf.  Their pitching staff generates a tremendous amount of swing/miss and are 11th in the nation as they average 11.2 Ks per 9.  With the Longhorns' struggles on the road and Tech’s excellence at home, the Red Raiders win the weekend 2-of-3. 

Vin’s Pick: Texas Tech
The Longhorns have been near the top of the rankings all year while the Red Raiders have fluctuated a bit, though it looks like they have hit their stride. Texas Tech actually matches up quite well and I’m not sold that the Longhorns have the advantage in terms of starting pitching. Brandon Birdsell has been an ace for Tech while Andrew Morris and Chase Hampton have been more than capable as well. I expect Jace Jung to have a big weekend for Texas Tech and think they have a chance to out-slug the Longhorns as the loss of Tanner Witt may be felt in a big way with a potentially series-deciding Sunday game. 


No. 21 Louisiana State at No. 14 Florida 
Cozy's Pick: Florida
 These two teams have historically been the measuring stick for opponents to see if they can compete to win the SEC.  It is an unusual year when neither club is ranked in the top-10 in the nation but that is where things currently sit.  That being said, these teams seem to be trending in completely opposite directions.  LSU came into 2022 with the most highly-anticipated offense in the nation and have performed well but haven’t put up the gaudy numbers expected.  They are 15-6 and have only played one true road game and an average schedule overall to this point.  They have been solid on the mound, but they have significant issues on the defensive side of things as they field .951 as a team, a shocking 261st in the nation.  The Gators have been playing excellent baseball over the past month and have developed into a scary club offensively with their 43 home runs.  They field a pristine .982, good for 13th in the nation and have a bona fide ace on Friday nights.  Their bullpen is talented and deep and if they get three quality starts this weekend, they should be in position to sweep.  Florida is playing like one of the best teams in the country and the Tigers are trending the other direction.  The Gators take this series, winning at least 2-of-3.   

Vin’s Pick: Florida
From the outside looking in it appears that the Tigers are experiencing somewhat of a slide and that is the opposite of how a club wants to be playing heading into SEC play. They lost 2-of-3 to Texas A&M last week and then lost an extra-inning game at home to Louisiana Tech. LSU has a team fielding percentage of just .951 and that combined with the lack of competitive strikes have led to a lot of free runs. I think Florida has the established Friday night ace of Hunter Barco to lead the way while Sterlin Thompson, Colby Halter, and Jud Fabian are all red hot. 


No. 17 North Carolina at No. 22 Miami 
Cozy's Pick: Miami 
 The Tar Heels have been a very consistent performer in 2022 on the strength of their bullpen and nice blend of power/speed with the sticks.  They are sitting second in the nation with a 2.07 team ERA, throw strikes at an elite level, but they are 140th in the nation in team fielding percentage.  This will be their first true road series of the year as they played at Duke last weekend just 11 miles from home. They are 16-0 at home and 2-3 away from Chapel Hill.  The interesting thing to watch for is that UNC is averaging over 7 runs per game at home but only 3 runs per game on the road in a small sample size.  The Canes have played a quality schedule and sit 14-6 so far, have yet to really hit their stride but have found ways to win most series.  They hold their opponents to an OBA of .211 and have only surrendered 6 stolen bases on the season and that is a big part of UNC’s offense.  They have a balanced offensive attack, are in the top-50 in several team categories and play well at Mark Light Field.  These clubs are very evenly matched, and the Heels have the advantage on the mound, but the Canes hold a 16-9 record in this series at home.  Miami will once again figure out a way to defend their home turf for the series victory. 

Vin’s Pick: North Carolina
I think the Canes have an immensely talented team but have been plagued by inconsistent play from week to week. They’ve come within the verge of dropping out of the rankings to taking two of three from Clemson last weekend. The Tar Heels on the other end have been pretty consistent, playing solid defense and limiting opponents’ offenses enough to stay in games. I think this is pretty close to a toss up but I’ll give the edge to North Carolina who have had more consistency with their ‘pen arms.


No. 23 Maryland at Dallas Baptist  
Cozy's Pick: Dallas Baptist 
 Maryland started off the season with impressive road sweeps of Baylor and Campbell.  They are 17-3, have played a quality schedule and found themselves ranked in the Top 25 early on.  The Terps play fast, pressure their opponents with power up and down the lineup and stay active on the bases with 27 stolen bags to date.  Their arms are high end, they fill up the zone, and their defense is stingy allowing only 6 free bags per game.  Dallas Baptist is battle hardened already as they have played the most difficult schedule in the nation so far in 2022.  They have taken their lumps but are playing their best brand of ball right now, winning 8 of their last 10.  Their offense is batting only .260 as a team but they are explosive with 30 home runs and are 25th in the nation with 37 stolen bases.  Their pitching staff has settled into their roles and have pitched outstanding ball in the last few weeks.  The lessons the Patriots have learned through the early season grind are starting to pay off and will give them the edge at home.  DBU wins another quality series this weekend. 

Vin’s Pick: Dallas Baptist
DBU has been knocking on the door of the rankings for weeks and they’ll have the opportunity to force our hand by beating ranked Maryland at home. The Patriots’ pitching staff has been fantastic, limiting runs and striking out basically everyone as both Jacob Meador and Luke Eldred have both solidified strong roles at the top of the rotation. Maryland star Matt Shaw is struggling to the tune of a .200 batting average and I think that coupled with questions about staff ace Nick Dean, missed the start prior and gave up 6 runs to Siena last Friday, will be enough for DBU to capitalize. 
 

Virginia Commonwealth at East Carolina  
Cozy's Pick: East Carolina 
 VCU has had quite the struggle with the sticks so far in 2022 and don’t rank in the top-100 nationally in any major offensive category.  Despite those struggles they have been competitive in most every game they’ve played and come into the weekend with an 11-8 record.  They are a hard-nosed ball club and have a talented pitching staff.  They carry a 3.91 ERA and a better than 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, so they minimize opponents scoring opportunities.  ECU is trending in the right direction after experiencing some real struggles in February.  They have seen some unexpected members on the roster step up offensively of late and the bats are starting to come to life up and down the order.  They have figured things out on the mound, while their 4.39 ERA is still inflated, they do strike out hitters at a high rate.  Couple that with a team defense that ranks 10th in the nation with a .984 fielding percentage, they are really holding teams in check.  I bet against ECU at home a couple weeks ago and lost.  That won’t happen this weekend, the Pirates have a great shot at the weekend sweep of the Rams. 

Vin’s Pick: VCU
The Rams are hot! VCU has won eight straight after opening the year sluggish and this is a team that should be the class of the Atlantic 10 and was in a Regional last year. The pitching staff for VCU has done a good job at limiting opponents’ hitting while the offense features the likely Best Player on the Field in Tyler Locklear. I expect VCU’s Locklear to have a big series in what should be a competitive affair as ECU is no slouch and the Pirates certainly have the talent to take the series at home. 


Charlotte at Old Dominion  
Cozy's Pick: Old Dominion 
 This weekend will be the biggest challenge of 2022 to date for both teams.  The 49ers, at 14-6, have only played one true road game so far and this will be their first C-USA series of the year.  ODU comes in with a sparkling 17-2 record but due to their soft schedule thus far are not in our Top 25.  Charlotte is a solid offensive club, batting .300 as a team and averaging more than a home run per game.  However, their pitching has been a bit disappointing with a 4.27 ERA, they surrender over 4 walks per-9, and they give their opponents over 9 free bases per game as a team.  The Monarchs have put up huge numbers offensively, especially at home, as they rank in the top-10 in doubles and home runs as a team.  Their pitching is more than adequate with a team ERA of 3.37 and sport a 3.5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  Both programs were in contention to host a Regional in 2021 but are nowhere close to that this year.  That makes this weekend that much more vital for their postseason outlook down the road.  ODU is playing extremely well in all aspects and take the series at home, putting up runs in bunches. 

Vin’s Pick: Old Dominion
Charlotte has largely rebounded following an early season series loss to West Virginia, righting the ship in the lead up to the start of conference play. Old Dominion is on the other side of the coin, having dominated their schedule with little push back from a weaker overall slate. As such, the Monarchs’ numbers are gaudy, particularly on the offensive side. I think Andy Garriola has a big weekend against a pitching staff that has given up around a home run per game. The offensive firepower here is fun to look at on paper as the competitiveness of this series will be largely derived from the offenses on both sides.

 
South Alabama at Louisiana Lafayette  
Cozy's Pick: South Alabama 
 You would have to be a baseball purist to get excited about a matchup that could come down to stolen bases.  But this weekend in Lafayette could very well be determined by South Alabama’s ability to control the Ragin’ Cajuns on the basepaths.  The Jags have only surrendered 5 stolen bases on the year while ULL has swiped 42 bags, which is good for 24th in the nation.  USA is off to a tremendous 15-4 start and have swept every three-game series they’ve played this year.  Offensively they are well-rounded, walk almost as much as they strikeout and generate runs in a variety of ways.  They are tight defensively, with a team ERA of 3.19, fielding .974 and only surrender 6.5 free bags per game.  ULL comes in with a 9-11 record but plays much better at home as 7 of their 11 loses have come on the road.  They will not slug the ball very much but play small ball and run the bases with reckless abandon.  Pitching has been uncharacteristically off pace this season with a 4.70 ERA and a fairly high OBA of .245, plus they give up almost one free bag per inning.  Runs will be tough to come by for the Ragin’ Cajuns this weekend due to the quality of South Al’s pitching staff.  The Jags leave the bayou happy, having won 2 out of 3.           

Vin’s Pick: South Alabama
Lafayette has one of the best home field advantages in the sport and the Jags will be entering territory as one of the favorites for the Sun Belt. South Al is one of the more disciplined teams in the country as though they don’t hit for a ton of power they grind out at-bats and their pitching staff doesn’t allow free passes. I think ultimately South Alabama is the better and deeper team here but don’t discount the home field advantage as Louisiana often finds a way to win at home. 

        
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