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College  | Story | 3/18/2022

Week 5 College Picks and Preview

Vincent Cervino
Craig Cozart
Photo: Tim Elko (Ole Miss Athletics)
Top 25 in Action
Rank Team Opponent Location
1 Notre Dame at Louisville Louisville, Ky.
2 Vanderbilt vs. Missouri Nashville, Tenn.
3 Texas vs. Incarnate Word Austin, Texas
4 Ole Miss at Auburn Auburn, Ala.
5 Tennessee vs. South Carolina Knoxville, Tenn.
6 Georgia Tech vs. Wake Forest Atlanta, Ga.
7 Oklahoma State vs. Seton Hall Stillwater, Okla.
8 Oregon State vs. Arizona State Corvallis, Ore.
9 LSU vs. Texas A&M Baton Rouge, La.
10 Arkansas vs. Kentucky Fayetteville, Ark.
11 Stanford at #20 Arizona Tucson, Ariz.
12 Liberty at North Florida Jacksonville, Fla.
13 Florida State vs. North Carolina State Tallahassee, Fla.
14 Texas Tech at Iowa Iowa City, Iowa
15 TCU at Baylor Waco, Texas
16 Clemson vs. #24 Miami Clemson, S.C.
17 Florida at Alabama Tuscaloosa, Ala.
18 North Carolina at Duke Durham, N.C.
19 Virginia vs. Boston College Charlottesville, Va.
20 Arizona vs. #11 Stanford Tucson, Ariz.
21 Texas State vs. Arkansas State Jonesboro, Ark.
22 Maryland vs. Siena College Park, Md.
23 UCONN at UC San Diego La Jolla, Calif.
24 Miami at #18 Clemson Clemson, S.C.
25 UCLA vs. Harvard Los Angeles, Calif.





PICKS! 
Matchup Vin's Picks Cozy's Picks
#4 Ole Miss at Auburn
South Carolina at #5 Tennessee
Kentucky at #10 Arkansas
No. 11 Stanford at No. 20 Arizona
Boston College at No. 19 Virginia
Mercer at South Florida
Florida Gulf Coast at Stetson
SE Missouri State at Missouri State

Vin’s Record: 19-3-1
Cozy’s Record: 12-10-1


No. 4 Ole Miss at Auburn 
Cozy's Pick: Ole Miss 
The gauntlet that is the SEC regular season starts this weekend and Ole Miss vs. Auburn is a great place to start.  Ole Miss comes into the weekend with a 13-3 record, while Auburn checks in at 13-4.  Offensively these teams virtually mirror each other with a nice power/speed blend and on the mound, there is very little discrepancy as they both have ERAs in the mid-2.00 range.  However, the Rebels have played a much more challenging schedule thus far and went on the road winning a tough series at UCF.  The Tigers with the exception of Opening Weekend at a neutral site, have played every game at home and are coming off a surprising series loss to Middle Tennessee State.  Ole Miss quite honestly is getting a lot of consideration as the best team in the country and their core of experienced, hard-nosed position players gives them staying power for the long haul.  Auburn on the other hand just hasn’t put together a sustained period of high-level play in 2022.  The Rebels will continue to find ways to put up runs and start off conference play by winning the series 2-of-3 this weekend.  

Vin’s Pick: Ole Miss
The Rebels look like a surefire national title contender right now while Auburn had a hot start to the season and is coming off a loss in their final non-conference series to Middle Tennessee. Ole Miss just has too many advantages across the board from the depth and tenacity of their offense to the firepower coming out of the bullpen. I picked Jacob Gonzalez to be my Golden Spikes winner and if the start of SEC play is his turning point than the Rebs get even more dangerous.


South Carolina at No. 5 Tennessee 
Cozy's Pick: Tennessee 
 South Carolina has been on quite the emotional rollercoaster in the last two weeks.  After getting swept by instate rival Clemson two weeks ago, a lesser team might have gone into a tailspin.  Not so for the Gamecocks, as they hosted the then-No. 1 ranked Texas Longhorns the following weekend and won the series.  The intriguing thing about this weekend is the fact that Tennessee comes into the weekend with a 16-1 record and their only loss came against those Longhorns.  That being said, the Vols are downright scary with the sticks as they lead the nation with 46 home runs and may well have the best pitching staff in the nation with their stable of 100 mph arms producing a 4:1 staff K/BB ratio.  Plus, Lindsey Nelson Stadium is rapidly becoming known as one of the most intimidating venues in college baseball for visiting teams.  Tennessee is batting 55 points higher, has four times as many home runs and their team ERA is less than half (2.03) of that of South Carolina.  It will be a tall task for the Gamecocks to win a game, a Volunteer sweep is a high probability.   

Vin’s Pick: Tennessee
This is similar to the first series except for the fact that the Gamecocks are coming off - checks notes - taking 2-of-3 from the former No. 1 team in the country. It’s been a very hot and cold season with South Carolina being inconsistent at times in both weekends and midweeks. They’re riding high now and the pieces are here to pull the upset but I think that not only is Tennessee a title contender but they’ve been the most impressive team in the country in terms of execution and raw stat totals.


Kentucky at No. 10 Arkansas 
Cozy's Pick: Arkansas 
Kentucky has had a nice 14-4 start to the 2022 season and won a home series against nationally-ranked TCU a few weekends ago.  Their offense is quite prolific with a team average of .324, adding in 44 doubles and 23 home runs.  The problem is that they just haven’t been very good on the mound and carry an inflated 5.55 team ERA against an overall average schedule.  On the other side of the field, Arkansas is 12-3 and has not been as explosive with the bats as most people expected.  They are only hitting .275 as a team, they don’t steal bases and their power numbers have been very average to this point in the season.  The difference in the series will come down to the Razorbacks' performance on the mound, where they have a distinct advantage over the Wildcats.  The Razorbacks don’t have the insane strikeout numbers like a year ago, but they do limit their opponents to a .200 average and have a solid team ERA of 3.11 in 2022.  Baum-Walker Stadium will be rocking this weekend and the fans usually will their club to victory.  Based on that and the strength of Arkansas’ pitching/defense, the home team take the series winning at least 2-of-3. 

Vin’s Pick: Kentucky
The Kentucky Wildcats have lost only one game on the weekend all season up to this point. Now it hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows for Kentucky as their pitching has been Not Good for long stretches of games but they’ve done enough to hang around almost and have a signature series win over TCU at home. They’re going to need at least one quality start, hopefully from staff ace Cole Stupp to get him going, along with big series’ from their top two hitters in Chase Estep and Jacob Plastiak. The likely scenario is that a top ten Arkansas team takes care of business but I think this Wildcats team is scrappy and could steal two of three in Fayetteville.


No. 11 Stanford at No. 20 Arizona 
Cozy's Pick: Arizona 
The 2022 season has really been a mixed bag of results thus far for the Cardinal who are 9-5 overall and the Wildcats with a record of 13-4.  It is quite amazing how closely these teams mirror each other, they both have 17 home runs as a team, field .967/.968 respectively and both have an OBA of .240 so far.  They have played excellent, challenging schedules where they have experienced the difficulties of playing on the road as well as neutral sites.  The Cardinal have lost four of their last seven and the Wildcats have won four of their last five.  The home team seems to be hitting their stride and are trending in the right direction.  Plus, Hi Corbett Field is unique with its extremely pitcher friendly dimensions in the outfield (left-center field is 410’ for instance) and the infield is tight, playing lightning fast.  Arizona is the more explosive offense and can put runs on the board in bunches.  Based on that and hosting their first Pac-12 series of the season, the Wildcats will walk away with the series victory and move to 4-2 in league play. 

Vin’s Pick: Stanford
This is a very even matchup between two teams that would like to see their next matchup be in Omaha. Both teams have been battle tested in neutral-environment tournaments while both have also dropped a series so far, Arizona to the now-better-looking Texas State and Stanford last weekend to Oregon. I think this matchup comes down to which pitching staff makes the least mistake and the Cardinal are allowing free passes at a 10% less clip than Arizona but this matchup truly looks like a toss-up. 
 

Boston College at No. 19 Virginia 
Cozy's Pick: Virginia 
Boston College has only played one game at home in 2022, currently sit 7-8 and went on the road last weekend to start ACC play in Miami.  They played very competitively but ended up losing the series after winning a slugfest on Friday night.  The Eagles are always a tough, hard-nosed club and they have some juice throughout their lineup with 22 home runs.  Unfortunately, their pitching has been abysmal with a shocking team ERA of 7.27 and they don’t throw strikes at a high level.  Their K/BB ratio is approaching 1:1 as a staff, and they are giving away almost 11 free bases per 9 innings thus far.  The Cavaliers on the flip side are 15-1 and would be hard-pressed to have a better start to the season in every aspect.  Their slash line is .334/.550/.448, with 33 doubles, 26 home runs and 27 stolen bases.  Their defense has possibly been even more impressive, fielding .986 as a team and have only allowed 4 stolen bases on the year.  The team ERA is 1.83, they strike hitters out in bunches, and only allow a .190 average.  This has the feel of a mismatch, UVA will win the series with a definite chance to sweep.    

Vin’s Pick: Virginia
Boston College has finished last in the Atlantic each of the last four years and though they took the first game against Miami on the road last week, they then proceeded to be outscored 23-5 over the next two games. The Cavaliers on the other hand have looked like an absolute juggernaut, going with the tried and true strategy of scoring a bunch and limiting the opposition, though they lost their first game of the season on Sunday to Duke. I think this is a very good Virginia team and they should be able to dispatch the Eagles in this one.


Mercer at South Florida 

Cozy's Pick: Mercer
Mercer has been one of the most consistent non-Power 5 programs in the nation for the last decade or so.  They are a club we’ve been watching closely for the last couple weeks, and they are off to a tremendous 15-1 start, including midweek victories against FSU and GT.  USF of course, is coming off their magical run in 2021 when they won the Gainesville Regional and performed very well in the Austin Super Regional.  The Bulls are 11-6 and have played just a moderately challenging slate thus far.  Mercer is tremendous on the mound with a 2.35 team ERA, only surrender 5.1 free bases per 9 innings and teams have only swiped three bases against them all year.  They won’t be in the friendly confines of home, but they have still hit 37 home runs on the season.  The Bulls don’t really jump off the page with any team statistic but are just solid in most every aspect.  They will run some high-end arms out to the mound but their team ERA of 4.54 is a bit inflated and they do almost average giving up one free base per inning to their opponents.  Based on their stingy defense and much more powerful team offense the Bears should take care of business in Tampa this weekend.  The visiting club takes the series two out of three. 

Vin’s Pick: South Florida
When you look at what’s been done already the Mercer Bears look like a juggernaut of a mid-major team with a 15-2 record and midweek wins over FSU and Georgia Tech. They play really solid baseball and have a deep veteran lineup but going on the road to USF with the potential breakouts they have will be a tough task. If Jack Jasiak returns to the bump they’ll have an American Pitcher of the Year candidate along with Orion Kerkering who has devastating stuff. The offense is inconsistent but with big series’ from Carmine Lane and Drew Brutcher the Bulls can defend home turf and take two of three.
 

Florida Gulf Coast at Stetson 

Cozy's Pick: Florida Gulf Coast 
It may come as a surprise to many that this matchup features two of the most prolific strike throwing pitching staffs in the nation this year.  The Eagles come into the weekend averaging just under 3 walks per 9 and the Hatters are averaging an amazing 1.9 free passes per game.  Neither club has played the most difficult schedule to this point and are 13-4 and 12-5, respectively.  The storyline in this series will be the contrasting styles of play from a team offense standpoint.  FGCU’s slash line is .321/.522/.456 with 45 doubles, 23 home runs but have only stolen 8 bags.  Whereas Stetson’s slash line is .287/.374/.387 with 29 doubles, only 3 home runs but have swiped 40 bags.  Neither team really creates offense for their opponents, and it will come down to maximizing opportunities.  The Eagles ability to lean on balls and score multiple runs with one swing of the bat should give them the advantage this weekend.  FGCU starts A-Sun play with the road series victory. 

Vin’s Pick: Florida Gulf Coast
Both Florida Gulf Coast and Stetson have fairly similar records at this juncture with both of their rotations doing well and the bullpen’s being more hit or miss. The difference maker here I think for the Eagles are a pair of super sophomores in Jason Woodward and Najer Victor. If you’re looking for something to swing the Hatters’ way keep an eye on ace Nick Durgin who made his first appearance of the spring last week and could be stretched out further this Friday. Brian Ellis offensively is a difference maker for FGCU and I think the Eagles take a tough, competitive series.


Southeast Missouri State at Missouri State 
Cozy's Pick: Missouri State 
While it’s not one of the most high-profile series outside of the Midwest, it is one of the most heated rivalries in college baseball.  The Bears lead SEMO 66-40 in the all-time series that took a hiatus between 1981 and 1992.  The Redhawks have been on our radar for a while now with their 13-3 start, but they are only playing .500 ball on the road.  Missouri State is only 8-7 on the year but seem to be coming together at the right time.  SEMO shows some juice in the lineup with 36 doubles, 33 home runs and have swiped 31 bags.  Things are a lot more average on the mound with a concerning .272 average against and a 5.65 team ERA.  The Bears play station-to-station on offense with 33 doubles and 30 home runs.  However, their team ERA is almost a full point better than SEMO at 4.76 but have an identical OBA of .272 so far.  Neither team plays team defense at a championship level, so this should be an intense and tightly contested three games.  History is on the side of the home team here and Missouri State will hold serve winning the series at Hammons Field this weekend.  

Vin’s Pick: Missouri State
I like Missouri State’s offense in this matchup as they’ve already slugged 30 home runs as a team and are led by the powerful Dakota Kotowski who has real Best Player on the Field potential this weekend. The Redhawks pitching numbers have not been that impressive and the Bears have a number of physical, veteran bats that can smash dingers. Tyler Wilber for the Redhawks will have to have a big series and they’ll need some big pitching performances so the likeliest outcome looks like the Bears defend their home turf. 
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