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College  | Story | 3/11/2022

Week 4 College Picks & Preview

Vincent Cervino
Craig Cozart
Photo: Notre Dame Baseball (Notre Dame Athletics)
Top 25 in Action

Rank Team Opponent Location
1 Texas at South Carolina Columbia, S.C.
2 Vanderbilt vs. Wagner Nashville, Tenn.
3 Notre Dame at #17 North Carolina State Raleigh, N.C.
4 Stanford vs. Oregon Stanford, Calif.
5 Ole Miss vs. Oral Roberts Oxford, Miss.
6 Tennessee vs. Rhode Island Knoxville, Tenn.
7 Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech Atlanta, Ga.
8 Oklahoma State vs. BYU Arlington, Texas
9 Oregon State at Washington State Pullman, Wash.
10 LSU vs. Bethune-Cookman Baton Rouge, La.
11 Arkansas vs. UIC Fayetteville, Ark.
12 Liberty vs. Campbell Lynchburg, Va.
13 UCLA vs. Southern California Los Angeles, Calif.
14 Florida State at Wake Forest Winston-Salem, N.C.
15 TCU vs. Army Fort Worth, Texas
16 Texas Tech at Rice Houston, Texas
17 North Carolina State vs. #3 Notre Dame Raleigh, N.C.
18 Clemson vs. #24 Miami Clemson, S.C.
19 Florida vs. Seton Hall Gainesville, Fla.
20 North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh Chapel Hill, N.C.
21 Arizona at California Berkeley, Calif.
22 Tulane vs. Evansville New Orleans, La.
23 Virginia at Duke Durham, N.C.
24 Miami at #18 Clemson Clemson, S.C.
25 Maryland at/vs. Georgetown, Cornell College Park, Md./Washington, D.C.


PICKS! 

Matchup Vin's Picks Cozy's Picks
Campbell at #12 Liberty
#14 Florida State at Wake Forest
#3 Notre Dame at #17 NC State
Saint Mary's at ECU
UCONN at Pepperdine
Michigan at Louisville
USC at UCLA
San Diego at Grand Canyon

Vin’s Record: 12-3
Cozy’s Record: 9-6




Campbell at Liberty

Vin's Pick: Liberty
We’ve had this series circled since way back in the preseason as a potential Top 25 matchup, but the Humps were a little bit slow out of the gate. They look to have righted the ship however, as they’ll head to Lynchburg to take on Liberty. The pitching matchups should be excellent all weekend as Thomas Harrington and Cade Kuehler are two stars for Campbell while Liberty’s staff has been just as good. The Flames get the edge due to veteran bats like Aaron Anderson and Derek Orndorff as Campbell’s bats still look a little bit sluggish. 

Cozy's Pick: Liberty 
Coming into the 2022 very few non-Power 5 teams had as much hype as the Camels.  This was not unwarranted with their stock of high-end arms and talented returning position players.  But coaching college age athletes in not an exact science and Campbell is off to a 6-7 start.  But they have played a very challenging schedule, and started off 1-6 while batting under .200 as a team.  Since then, they are 5-1 and the offense has started to thaw out and the pitching has remained consistent.  Their arms can keep opponents in check, but they give up on average 8 free bases per game and that makes their margin for error razor thin.  Liberty on the other hand could not have started off the season with a bigger statement than going on the road and taking the series from the Florida Gators.  They are 11-1, they have depth on the mound where they have a team ERA of 2.44, a 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and average 11 punchouts per game.  They field .988 and only give opponents 2.5 free bags per game; opponents must earn everything.  The offense has a bit more swing-and-miss than the typical Flame offense, but they slug much more with 19 doubles and 19 home runs on the year.  This will be an emotional series, but Liberty is as good as any team in the nation and will win at least 2-of-3 at home this weekend.


Florida State at Wake Forest

Vin's Pick: FSU
This is the early season of an unstoppable force versus an immovable object in Florida State’s pitching against Wake Forest’s bats. The Seminoles’ starting rotation looks as strong as anyone in the country with the duo of Parker Messick and Bryce Hubbart already racking up weekly awards, while Wake has three hitters hitting over .400 and a physical, physical lineup. I think this comes down to the youth of the Demon Deacons’ starting rotation, two sophomores and true freshman Josh Hartle, as the Noles should produce enough offense to capture the series. 

Cozy's Pick: Wake Forest
If you like power and high-end talent then Winston Salem, N.C. is the place for you.  This weekend’s matchup between the Seminoles and the Demon Deacons will feature a multitude of power arms and power bats in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in college baseball.  FSU comes into ACC Conference play with an 8-4 record, having won all their weekend series thus far but having some trouble with midweek games.  Their stock of power arms, especially from the left side, is unrivaled and they have a 3.02 team ERA currently.  The staff is averaging 13 strikeouts per game and limit their opponents to a .194 batting average.  Offensively they are slashing .292/.479/.379 with 27 doubles, 14 home runs and have swiped 13 bags.  They do average striking out 10 times per game, which is unusual for a Seminole offense.  Wake Forest counters with a downright scary offense, especially in their home park.  Their slash line is video game-like at .360/.629/.471, with 33 doubles, 28 home runs and have also taken 10 bags.  They are averaging just under 12 runs per game in support of a much-improved pitching staff.  Don’t be mistaken, the Deacs have a plenty of power arms to go around as well.  They currently sport an ERA of 2.61, have punched out 128 batters and are allowing an average of just .201 on the year.  Both FSU and Wake are fielding well with .971 and .981 percentages, respectively, and neither have allowed the other team to take many bags.  This is an exciting matchup, with plenty of talent that will draw in MLB scouts by the dozens.  The Demon Deacons are primed to have their statement weekend riding the strength of their power bats and quality arms beginning to end.  The home team wins the series 2 out of 3.  


Notre Dame at NC State

Vin's Pick: Notre Dame
Last week was about as bad of a week you could have in the college landscape as the Wolfpack went 0-4, including a home series sweep at the hands of Northeastern. This is a very young team as the starting offense alone features three true freshmen and two more transfers who are new to the ACC. On the other hand, the Irish are a deep, veteran ball club with experience from last year’s Super Regional team all across the diamond. I expect the Irish to take care of business but if they make too many mistakes, NC State has the firepower to score in bunches. 

Cozy's Pick: Notre Dame
Having spent their entire 2022 schedule on the road thus far, Notre Dame has performed as expected with a 9-1 record.  But what makes them so impressive is the absolute airtight defense they have played while on unfamiliar turf.  It all starts on the mound where they are riding a minuscule 1.41 team ERA, punching out 117 while only surrendering 28 base-on-balls so far.  In the field, it seems unfathomable, but they have only made three errors and surrendered two stolen bases.  They slash .311/.489/.385 and run one of the most complex offensive systems in all of college baseball.  The Wolfpack and their offense that averages 10 runs per game has gotten plenty of print in 2022.  But they are coming off an 0-4 week where they only scored 2 runs per game.  They are still extremely offensive with .337/.555/.430 line, but the pitching staff is still a work in progress.  With a team ERA of 4.38 and a .241 batting average against while fielding .956, opponents have gotten consistent opportunities to put up runs.  The Pack will need to play clean this weekend to hang with the Irish.  The series will come down to who capitalizes on offensive opportunities, and Notre Dame just doesn’t give many of those away.  The Irish win the series 2 out of 3. 


Saint Mary’s at East Carolina

Vin's Pick: East Carolina
On paper, Saint Mary’s has had a terrific start to the season. The Gaels enter this weekend 12-1 with their offense, defense, and pitching staff firing on all cylinders. Chris Campos is an underrated, two-way standout of the sport and they should give the Pirates all they can handle. It looks like Cliff Godwin’s squad has turned a corner, winning six out of their last seven including victories over Maryland and Michigan. This was very nearly a top-10 team in the preseason so I’ll go with the Pirates at home. 

Cozy's Pick: Saint Mary’s
It’s difficult to remember a time in the last decade where you would consider betting against ECU at home, especially in a non-conference matchup in March.  But one of the best-kept stories of the 2022 season makes their way to the East Coast this weekend in Saint Mary’s.  Off to an amazing 12-1 start while playing 6 games at home and the rest on the road, the Gaels look like a Top 25 club on paper.  Their slash line is tremendous at .345/. 533/. 433 with an eye popping 37 doubles, 12 triples and 38 stolen bases so far.  They are averaging 10 runs per game, outscoring their opponents 131-41 on the year.  They pitch it well too with a team ERA of 2.64, have struck out 141 in just 116 innings, and limit their foes to a .186 average.  The Pirates, very uncharacteristically, have really struggled, even getting swept at home to open the season against Bryant.  They have righted the ship lately, no pun intended, winning 6 of their last 7 games including back-to-back wins against in-state rivals UNC and Duke.  The offense has been historically off-pace for ECU, slashing .264/.372/.345 with 19 doubles but only 8 home runs.  They are scoring on average 5 runs per game and surrendering on average 4.5, hence the 7-6 record so far.  The pitching staff took a major hit right before Opening Day and have a 4.23 ERA with a solid 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  The distinct advantage the Pirates have in the series is their seamless defense fielding at a .983 clip.  However, the story on the weekend could come down to the running game, where Saint Mary’s has stolen 38 bags as previously mentioned and ECU has surrendered 23 bags on the year.  This is another tough call, but it looks like the Gaels will hand the Pirates another series defeat at home. 


UCONN at Pepperdine

Vin's Pick: UCONN
The Huskies lost one game in their opening weekend round robin down in Florida and have been absolutely on fire since then, winning every game en route to a 9-1 record heading into this weekend. The pitching staff has been nails, led by Austin Peterson who has been striking out everyone, while the offense is full of guys with disciplined approaches who will make opposing arms work. Pepperdine is a solid team, sophomore John Peck being a standout, but I think the Huskies have the depth here to edge out the Waves. 

Cozy's Pick: UCONN
As is the norm for northern schools to begin the season, the Huskies have played all but one game on the road as they have sprinted out to a 9-1 record.  Their offense is well-rounded with a nice blend of power and speed as seen with their .335 team average, with 28 doubles, 10 home runs and 18 stolen bases.  They are generating 8 runs per game and are difficult to game plan for with their approach and ability to grind out at-bats.  Their team ERA is a sparkling 1.53 and have struck out 121 opposing hitters while only walking 25 on the year.  The Waves are off to an 8-4 start and are fresh off a sweep of Cal State Fullerton on the road last weekend.  Up to that point, their body of work in 2022 had been lackluster.  They are only slashing .262/.401/. 346 with 21 doubles, 10 home runs but are generating almost 7 runs per game.  Their pitching staff is carrying a 4.11 team ERA and doesn’t eliminate contact at a high level with 7.5 punchouts per game.  It’s always tough to bet against a program like Pepperdine hosting a team that makes the trek across the entire country; there are just so many factors working against the visiting club.  However, the Huskies are a tough Northeastern club that is road tested already and the quality of their pitching staff should be the deciding factor.  The numbers significantly favor UCONN, the travel will level the field a bit for Pepperdine, but the visitors head back home winning a tightly-contested series. 
 

Michigan at Louisville

Vin's Pick: Louisville
Louisville has quietly taken care of business since losing 2-of-3 on Opening Weekend, winning 8-of-9 culminating with a big midweek win over ranked TCU. They have been crushing baseballs, led by veterans Dalton Rushing and Cam Masterman, while Christian Knapczyk is in the midst of his ACC star breakout year. Some concerns on the mound have been quelled by early season performance and they’ll be taking on an uncharacteristically sloppy Michigan team; this could be the start of the comeback trail for Dan McDonnell and the Cards. 

Cozy's Pick: Louisville 
If this was the 2019 season, this would probably be considered the most highly-anticipated series of the season since both clubs were participants in the College World Series that year.  Since then, it has been quite a struggle considering the standards these programs measure themselves against.  Michigan is 7-5 so far against a quality schedule and have yet to play a home game.  They are scoring 9 runs per game on average with a respectable slash line of .297/.503/.403 with 34 doubles and 16 home runs.  The troubling part for the Wolverines is what’s going on with the pitching staff.  They are carrying an inflated 5.74 ERA with an OBA of .290 and have only struck out 106 batters while walking a shocking 71 batters in just 105 innings.  The defense is giving up 11 free bases per game, translating into 7 runs per game allowed and giving Michigan very little margin for error.  Louisville is off to a 9-3 start, but the schedule has been moderately challenging.  Their offense has been the bright spot, averaging 10 runs per game with a team average of .329, 26 doubles, 10 triples, 19 home runs and 21 stolen bases.  However, the pitching staff has not been the Cardinals' usual power-armed dominant staff.  Their team ERA is currently a 4.75 while striking out 127 with 47 walks and allowing an OBA of .249 to date.  The mismatch in this series appears to be Louisville’s talented offense against Michigan’s beleaguered pitching staff.  That tilts the weekend in favor of the homestanding Cardinals and don’t be surprised if they sweep the Wolverines.  


USC at UCLA

Vin's Pick: USC
The Bruins are coming off a terrific showing in Houston, being named champions of the Shriners Classic with wins over Oklahoma and No. 1 Texas. That being said, this is an extremely young ball club and one that will experience highs and lows throughout the season. The Trojans enter with a 9-2 record and their offense clicking early in the season. Tyresse Turner, D’Andre Smith, and Rhylan Thomas are going to be The Guys for USC all year and are integral pieces to the lineup. I think ultimately UCLA might be the more talented team but the Trojans have the ability to take this series against their in-state rival. 

Cozy's Pick: UCLA 
This is a classic West Coast series between two of the most storied college baseball programs in the country.  But what make it even more intriguing is that they both play the “old school” West Coast style of the game.  It will all revolve around pitching and defense; the team winning the freebie war will win the weekend.  Southern Cal is off to a 9-2 start, all but one game at home and no ranked opponents to this point.  They don’t really jump off the page on the offensive side with a slash line of .292/.458/.366 with 21 doubles, 11 home runs, but they do strike out at a fairly high rate.  However, there is talent on the mound, and they play the glove at a high level and have only surrendered 3 stolen bases to date.  UCLA is special on the defensive side of things with a 2.14 team ERA, have a staggering 5:1 strikeout-to-walk and average 12 punchouts per game.  They only give up 2.2 free bases a game and just don’t give opponents very many opportunities to cross home plate.  Their slash line is a generic .258/.385/.394 with 26 doubles and only 6 home runs but they have stolen 32 bags already.  So, the Trojans do strike out a bit on offense and the Bruins are one of the best in the nation in missing opponents’ bats.  USC is one of the best in the nation in handling the running game on the mound and UCLA is one of the leaders in stolen bases.  Something must give this weekend, but on the strength of their pitching the Bruins win this series 2 games to 1. 


San Diego at Grand Canyon

Vin's Pick: San Diego
The Antelope’s offense can be downright frightening as they’ve got a number of guys who can go deep in any count and really don’t strikeout all too often. The Torreros also have a loud offense with Kevin Sim already crushing a team-high 5 home runs. This series will likely come down to a starting outing and I think Brycen Mautz has the potential to turn the tide. His numbers are inflated from a bad start against DBU where he gave up eight runs, and five home runs, but he’s got real frontline starter stuff. This is a toss up but I’ll lean the side that has Mautz throwing for them. 

Cozy's Pick: Grand Canyon
This is an intriguing series because both clubs have had some marquee wins in 2022 but they have also had some disappointing losses.  This weekend is important to both teams not just to get on track before conference play, but it could be pivotal if they position themselves for an at-large bid come May.  The Toreros vaulted themselves into the national scene on Opening Weekend when they took 3 out of 4 from the Oregon Ducks.  However, they have lost 4-of-7 since then and currently sit 6-5.  Both sides of the ball have been lackluster for the most part as they are hitting .272 as a team and have a 5.88 ERA.  They have generated 16 doubles, 13 home runs and taken 15 stolen bases but they issue 7 free bases per game and leave themselves with a small margin for error.  Grand Canyon is off to an 8-5 start and like USD, their chance to secure victory comes down to the little things.  Their offensive numbers mirror their opponents with a slash line of .289/.440/.381 with 23 doubles, 13 home runs and 13 bags.  They are slightly better on the mound with a 3.90 and limiting their foes to a .249 OBA.  They also issue on average 8 free bases per game, creating some offense for the other side.  It would be hard to find two clubs more evenly matched but the home club, Lopes, on the strength of their pitching take this series 2 out of 3.                           
 
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