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College  | Story | 3/4/2022

Week 3 College Baseball Preview

Vincent Cervino
Craig Cozart
Photo: Jud Fabian (Florida Athletics)
We’ve got a couple of big college tournaments on deck as this weekend will feature no shortage of big time matchups.

Shriners Classic

Annually one of the top events of the year, Shriner’s this year features four teams in the Top 25: No. 1 Texas, No. 3 LSU, No. 14 Tennessee, and No. 20 UCLA alongside Baylor and Oklahoma. There will be no shortage of draft talent either, including numerous top prospects from the next three draft classes highlighted by the LSU duo of Jacob Berry and Dylan Crews. Texas will have to matchup against the other three teams in the Top 25 and will certainly be tested once more following a home sweep of Alabama.



Cambria College Classic

Another strong event that annually brings some of the top teams from the Midwest together in Minneapolis, this year’s field features Illinois, Kansas, Michigan State, Minnesota, No. 6 Notre Dame, and No. 25 West Virginia. It’s a surreal environment thanks to the dome of the stadium and the football lines painted on the turf but the talent should be as good as ever. This will be the first big test for ACC favorite Notre Dame while this could also sort out some of the pecking order in the Big 10 as currently the only ranked team from the conference is Maryland at No. 21.

In-State Rivalry Matchups

Florida heads down to Coral Gables to take on Miami while Georgia and Georgia Tech will play a home, away, and neutral site game over the weekend. These are two of the premier rivalries in college baseball as Florida looks to take back a Top 25 bid with a road win over Miami. The Gators have been crushing the baseball thanks to the efforts of Jud Fabian, Sterlin Thompson, and company while Hunter Barco looks like the best arm in the SEC right now. Miami will counter with Carson Palmquist in what should be a premier Friday matchup. For the Dawgs and the Jackets it’s a matchup between Georgia’s pitching, which has been sterling thus far, versus Tech’s slugger-filled lineup headlined by potential first rounder Kevin Parada.

Picks! 

Matchup Vin's Picks Cozy's Picks
#9 Ole Miss at UCF  
Clemson vs. South Carolina  
Florida at #18 Miami  
#24 Georgia vs. #10 Georgia Tech
#17 Mississippi State at Tulane  


Vin's Record: 7-3
Cozy's Record: 5-5

Vin’s Picks

A lot going on with my picks this weekend as I see a couple of upsets in the fold, while there’s real potential for some unranked teams to force their way into the Top 25. UCF is a talented team but Ole Miss is looking like an Omaha-contender early in the season, I expect the Rebels to stay hot in Florida but UCF has the arms to have a chance should they be able to go deep into games. Clemson has been one of the bigger stories of this young season and a statement win against South Carolina would firmly cement their “back” status on the national landscape. Georgia-Georgia Tech is going to be a weird, weird series but I think ultimately Tech’s offense is going to be too much to handle. The Jackets haven’t pitched that well as of yet either so these could be some big scoring affairs. When discussing Mississippi State in the rankings I said that this version of the Bulldogs will not be the same version of the Bulldogs we see come May and June. On that note, I think State needs some more time to gel and really sort roles out on the team and they’ll unfortunately have to go on the road against a hungry Tulane team coming off a huge road win over Louisiana Tech.  

Coach's Picks

Ole Miss at UCF 
Pick: Ole Miss 

This realistically could be a Top 25 matchup as we strongly considered moving UCF in this week, but obviously if they win this home series that will take care of itself.  Last year UCF went to Oxford and upset the then-No. 1 ranked Ole Miss Rebels by winning 2-of-3.  This season’s series features two teams with the most ridiculous team stats we could possibly hope for.  UCF’s slash line as a team is .296/.509/.406 with 18 doubles, 11 home runs and 22 stolen bases already.  The Knight’s pitching has been even more impressive with a team ERA of 1.00, a strikeout-to-walk ration of almost 3:1 and have yet to allow a round tripper.  Ole Miss’s slash line as a team is .351/.619/.470 with 16 doubles, 14 home runs and 10 stolen bases.  The Rebel’s arms are even better than last year with a team ERA of 1.92, an opponent’s average of .177 and have punched out 84 in just 61 innings on the year.  The biggest discrepancy is on the defensive end where UCF fields .986 to Ole Miss’s .948 and that could be a factor.  However, Ole Miss takes this series 2 out of 3 on the strength of their offense.       

Clemson vs South Carolina 
Pick: Clemson 

With two of the most passionate fan bases in all collegiate sports, the Palmetto state will be watching every pitch this weekend.  The ACC/SEC 3-game series is unique as it will be at USC, at Segra Park and then at Clemson.  So far this season you could make a case for both clubs being the most elite defensive units in the nation.  They are both fielding a stifling .990 and average giving up less than five free bases per game; they simply don’t give their opponents anything to generate offense.  Offensively, they are very similar with the edge going to the Tigers, slashing .329/.516/.466 to the Gamecocks' .311/.450/.434 so far.  The separator comes on the mound where the advantage swings drastically in Clemson’s direction.  Their team ERA is a sparkling 2.59, while punching out 98 opponents in only 73 IP and most impressively they have only allowed 12 extra-base hits and 21 total runs on the year.  USC has been solid on the mound with a 4.32 ERA, but they are still figuring out their components heading into the weekend.  Clemson wins 2-of-3 and most likely moves into our Top 25 next week.       

Florida at Miami 
Pick: Florida 

Many people may not know just how lopsided this rivalry has been for the last decade.  The Gators have taken 8 of the last 10 series from the Canes and including postseason matchups have won 23 of the last 32 meetings.  Both teams are off to their usual great starts, with UF at 8-2 and UM at 7-1 respectively.  Schedule quality goes to the Gators who have won every game since losing their Opening Weekend series to Liberty.  Both offenses are quite prolific, but UF is more explosive, slashing .319/.577/.388 with 20 doubles and twice as many home runs as the Canes with 24 in 10 games.  On the mound, both staffs will feature plenty of power arms with the slight edge going to UM with a team ERA of 2.25 and limiting opponents to an average of .168 to date.  However, Florida’s pitching is every bit as good and the length in their lineup will be difficult to navigate.  The Gators have been a different team in the past couple weeks and look ready to take the series in Coral Spring.  It should be an amazing weekend of high-level ball but UF heads back north taking 2-of-3.         

Georgia at Georgia Tech 
Pick: Georgia 

Another rivalry of ACC/SEC in-state foes this weekend features the two marquee programs of the Peach State.  GT will host UGA in Atlanta for Game 1, things shift to Athens for Game 2 and the final game will be held at Coolray Field on Sunday.  As we have seen across the nation this year with Power 5 teams dominating their early season schedule; both the Bulldogs and the Jackets are off to 8-0 and 7-1 starts respectively.  The Jackets may well be the most prolific offense in the nation right now with a slash line of .361/.628/.454 with 20 doubles, 18 home runs and 17 stolen bases.  The Bulldogs can swing the bat as well and score runs in bunches, however, there is a stark contrast on the mound right now.  UGA boasts a staff ERA of a microscopic 1.90, with an almost 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and opponents' average of .194 on the year.  On the other side, GT is solid but have an ERA of 4.18, they can miss barrels and the opposition is batting .234 against them.  The old saying is that “good pitching beats good hitting” and that should hold true this weekend with the Bulldogs winning 2 out of 3 in this tightly contested match. 

Mississippi State at Tulane 
Pick: Tulane 

If you’re a college baseball purist, you can remember when Tulane was one of the most difficult places in all the sport to play if you were an opposing team.  Some of that mystique has returned with the recent surge in talent and success there in New Orleans.  This weekend could be one of the biggest series to hit the “Big Easy” in quite some time and the word is there isn’t a ticket left to be found.  Mississippi State is scuffling at 5-4 and Tulane is soaring at 8-1.  The defending national champs are seeing what it’s like to always have a target on your back and they simply aren’t clicking right now.  Seems like when they pitch, they’re not scoring and vice versa and they are only hitting .260 as a team with 11 home runs and only 6 doubles.  The pitching staff is still striking opponents out in bunches but the team ERA of 3.92 is much higher than normal for them.  Tulane on the other hand has been pitching at a high level with an ERA of 3.08 and are only allowing their opponents to slug .333 as a team.  Their offensive slash line is .285/.445/.410 and are putting up almost 10 runs per game.  Both MSU and Tulane are elite defensively, fielding .983 and .990 respectively.  So, runs will have to be earned this weekend.  The Bulldogs play in front of huge crowds every weekend, so while the atmosphere will be hostile and electric that won’t be the deciding factor.  The Tulane Green Wave is simply playing better right now and will defend their home turf winning 2 out of 3 this time.        

 
Top 25 In Action

Rank Team Opponent Location
1 Texas vs. #14 Tennessee, #3 LSU, #20 UCLA Houston, Texas
2 Stanford vs. CSUN Stanford, Calif.
3 LSU vs. Oklahoma, #1 Texas, Baylor Houston, Texas
4 Oklahoma State vs. Gonzaga Stillwater, Okla.
5 Vanderbilt at Hawaii Honolulu, Hawaii
6 Notre Dame vs. Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota Minneapolis, Minn.
7 North Carolina State vs. Northeastern Raleigh, N.C.
8 TCU at Kentucky Lexington, Ky.
9 Ole Miss at UCF Orlando, Fla.
10 Georgia Tech at/vs. #24 Georgia Georgia
11 Arkansas vs. Southeastern Fayetteville, Ark.
12 Arizona vs. Texas State Tucson, Ariz.
13 Liberty vs. Canisius Lynchburg, Va.
14 Tennessee vs. #1 Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma Houston, Texas
15 Florida State vs. California Tallahassee, Fla.
16 Oregon State vs. #22 UC Irvine Corvallis, Ore.
17 Mississippi State at Tulane New Orleans, La.
18 Miami vs. Florida Coral Gables, Fla.
19 Texas Tech vs. Merrimack Lubbock, Texas
20 UCLA vs. Baylor, Oklahoma, #1 Texas Houston, Texas
21 Maryland vs. Michigan, Indiana State, East Carolina Greenville, S.C.
22 UC Irvine at #16 Oregon State Corvallis, Ore.
23 Long Beach State vs. North Dakota State Long Beach, Calif.
24 Georgia at/vs. #10 Georgia Tech Georgia
25 West Virginia vs. Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan State Minneapolis, Minn.
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