As the summer showcase season winds down we’re starting to get a much more clear idea of how the talent for the 2010 draft is going to shake out. There are always players that emerge during the spring, but rarely does a player come out of nowhere to establish himself as a premium professional baseball prospect.
There are a few more stops for the season to officially come to a close, from a variety of regional Perfect Game showcases, including the inaugural Perfect Game World Championship (the West Coast answer to the WWBA World Championship), the Team USA Pan-Am games, and of course, the aforementioned WWBA tourney in Jupiter.
There have been a few interesting debates that have popped up the last several years by this time, with one of the more interesting focusing on the top draft-eligible high school pitchers.
And these debates quite often have focused on two young men at a time, often with similar attributes and with no right answer. In 2003 the debate was between the late Nick Adenhart and Homer Bailey, who started against one another in the inaugural Aflac All-American Classic. The same can be said for Jordan Walden and Matt Latos from the 2005 game. Rick Porcello and Matt Harvey offered another interesting discussion in ’06, while a pair of lefties, Tyler Matzek and Matthew Purke, were frequently compared to one another last year.
As you can tell by some of the names listed, not all of these players went on to become the best prep pitchers from their respective classes, or even the first prep pitchers drafted the years they were eligible. My intent is to focus on which players were considered the best just before they entered their senior years in high school.
This year offers another special pair of young righties that figure to be among the top players available for next year’s draft: Jameson Taillon and A.J. Cole.
I’m going to say it right now: There would be no shame if the Nationals passed on Bryce Harper, the unanimous pick right now to go first overall next June, to select Taillon. That of course would make him the first prep right-handed ever selected first overall, but it wouldn’t surprise me, as he has been so impressive all summer long, setting down some of the best hitters in the nation with aplomb.
Over the last two weekends, pitching in a pair of big-league ballparks, including a two-inning stint at Petco Park as part of the Aflac game, he has set down seven of the nine hitters he faced on strikes. Six of those came swinging, five on those fastballs in the zone. That fact right there shows you that he’s fearless in his approach, and confident in his stuff. The only two balls put into play never left the infield, and the only baserunner that reached was erased on a stolen base attempt (thanks to an absolute hose by Harper).
His fastball has crept towards 100, reaching 97-98 this summer while sitting comfortably in the 94-96 range. He also throws a very nasty hard curveball throw in the low-80s.
It makes it more difficult on opposing hitters that he’s so big, a 6’7”, 230 pound horse that throws downhill and offers an intimidating presence. I’m always a little wary of super-tall pitchers, since there always appears to be a lot more moving parts with such players. But Taillon has his body well under control, and uses his entire body to generate the impressive velocity that he does.
The biggest knock that I can see with Taillon is the fact that he is so big, so early in his life, with the common label attached to him being that he is already maxed out physically. I don’t really see that as a negative, because I could see him getting big-league batters out right now. There is always room for improvement, but if he stays on course he’s going to be a premium pick next June.
A.J. Cole hasn’t been quite as dominating, but he offers a resume nearly as impressive.
Cole is almost just as tall as Taillon at 6’5”, but offers a lot more room to grow with a slim yet wiry strong, projectable frame weighing in at190 pounds. As Jerry Ford noted in his Aflac blogs, Cole has been better in the past, and yet he still looked very good in the all-american game.
His scouting reports as found at PG Crosschecker are spot on. His fastball shows very good sinking life when he keeps it down in the zone. He has a nasty curve/slurve that is a dominant pitch when it’s on, which it usually is. He also shows nice feel for a changeup that serves as a perfect slow-ball, as there doesn’t appear much break to it, but he really does a good job pulling the string on the pitch. The delivery is sound and his arm is quick as the ball explodes out of his hand.
He too pitched the last two weekends, striking out a pair of batters and challenging hitters with his fastball. He spotted his breaking ball well, which he threw like a backdoor slider to right-handed hitters, and also used his change as mentioned above.
Basically, the total package is there for Cole too, and it’s easy to dream and see him getting even better as he continues to mature and fill out his body.
So, let the debate begin, or continue if you have already weighed in on the subject.
Viva Las Vegas
I’m not going to back down from my comment about the possibility of taking Taillon first overall in next year’s draft, as improbable as it may seem right now. That improbability is due to the presence of the next great phenom, Bryce Harper, already a growing legend much like Stephen Strasburg this past year. With a cover story in Sports Illustrated and a world of pressure on this young man’s shoulders, one that should be entering his junior year in high school, there is likely going to be a circus following this young man in and around Las Vegas next spring.
You have probably heard about Harper by now, a young man whose power and arm strength have both been rated a perfect 80 on the scouting scale. Those ratings are legit, as he will be leaving high school early to attend the College of Southern Nevada to make himself eligible for the draft a year earlier.
You may not have heard about Kris Bryant, a talented young slugger in his own right that also hails from Las Vegas. Both were teammates at this past weekend’s Aflac game, hitting third (Harper) and cleanup (Bryant) in the West lineup, and both could be taken among the top 10 picks in next June’s draft.
Neither looked particularly sharp in the game, at least not at the plate, although it did seem as though both (especially Harper) were pitched to differently than almost every other player that participated.
Bryant has a tall, strong build, with plenty of room to add more strength as he grows into his frame. His swing shows great extension with impressive overall power potential. He looks a little tall for third base, but is a good enough athlete to handle the position. Right field may be a likely destination if he doesn’t stay in the infield, and he reminds me of former Gamecock James Darnell, now a member of the Padres organization who is enjoying a fine season between two levels of A-ball.
Both players are the type of guys that right now, at 16 and 17 years old, look like big-leaguers. Big tools and big ability means that there will be a pair of Las Vegas native players that will be drawing big scouting (among other) crowds next spring.
Recommendation Failure
Congrats to the Nationals for making the signing of Stephen Strasburg happen. I know former Nats’ GM Jim Bowden was quoted in the spring effectively predicting what exactly happened (going up until the final minutes of the deadline and signing for roughly $15 million).
And as I noted last week, most of the picks did end up signing, as the money is just too good for anyone in any situation to pass up.
The most notable unsigned players are first-rounders Matthew Purke and LeVon Washington and supplemental first rounder James Paxton. Aaron Crow and Tanner Scheppers are still able to negotiate with the Royals and Rangers respectively since they played indy ball this spring, and I have a hard time believing either one of them would want to delay their professional careers any longer than they already have.
Among the other picks that will effect next year’s draft order via compensatory selections, a trio of second rounders and a trio of third rounders also went unsigned.
With big-named players signing for big-time money, it’s clear that MLB’s recommended slot values aren’t working. More and more players are signing for more and more money, including those selected well past the first round. I know baseball is trying to do it’s best to keep things even for all of the teams involved, but when so-called small market teams like the Pirates, Brewers, Rays and Royals are going above and beyond the recommended amounts, what’s the point going out of one’s way to police the process?
Bud Selig was recently quoted in the Washington Post that he intends to make a hard slotting system and a worldwide draft a bigger priority the next time the Collective Bargaining Agreement comes along. That’s good to hear, and it’s a long time coming. Part of me says, ‘I’ll believe it when I see it,’ since so few have shown to put much interest in changing the draft when similar opportunities have presented themselves although I do believe more and more people believe that there needs to be some kind of monetary restrictions put in place.
The worldwide draft I’m a lot more skeptical of, since I think it would be a logistical nightmare. I could see adding Latin America to the draft, but I don’t see how Japan could be added to the equation. After all, they have a rather large and impressive professional baseball league, and amateur player draft, of their own to contend with, as it’s not like players are suddenly going to be up for grabs overseas.
What interests me the most about this idea are the loopholes that are always found and manipulated to perfection by agents. After all, that is what they do best, and in my opinion it is a big part of what makes the MLB draft so interesting as compared to all of the other sports.
It may not be fair, but all teams, including the Nationals, have the choice to invest the money necessary to get some of the best players in their systems.
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.