Here is my final stab at how the first round of the draft will shake out. Last year by this time I was fairly confident with how the top 10 picks would shake out, nailing the first six selections overall. That isn’t the case this year, as the Padres pick at number three could very well set off a fairly significant chain reaction of which teams take which players.
Similar to Tanner Scheppers from a year ago, I think Kyle Gibson may fall out of the first round after being diagnosed with a stress fracture in his right forearm. Fortunately for Gibson it would appear as though six weeks of rest will help take care of the problem, meaning a team may be more willing to take him knowing they can still see him pitch a few times before the August 15th signing deadline, but the timing is bad regardless of the circumstances.
1. Washington Nationals - Stephen Strasburg
Alright, this pick has been in stone for quite some time, but what if the Nationals used that to their advantage and took Ackley first hoping to catch the teams that select from two through nine off-guard? Bad idea? Absolutely, but mock drafts are supposed to be fun, for someone.
2. Seattle Mariners - Dustin Ackley
There were some rumors that the Mariners were considering a different player with less than a week leading up to draft day, but I’m not buying that. It may take until August 15th to sign Ackley, but the deal will get done.
3. San Diego Padres - Donovan Tate
As noted above, this pick is going to dictate how most of the next 10-15 picks after this fall into place. The Padres are still showing a lot of interest in Tate, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see them pluck Tyler Matzek here as he finished his season strong.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates - Aaron Crow
With Kyle Gibson suffering a stress fracture, the Pirates will take Crow at least roughly knowing the kind of money it will take to get him in the fold. They also hope to have a little better luck with one of their first-round pitchers.
5. Baltimore Orioles - Zack Wheeler
This is another possible destination for Matzek, or Crow for that matter, but word has the Orioles hot on Wheeler’s trail for the last month-plus. The O’s have quite a few exciting power arms to look forward to, and Wheeler will give them another one to look forward to a year or two behind the likes of Matusz, Arrieta and Tillman.
6. San Francisco Giants - Tyler Matzek
Between Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, the Giants have had some pretty good fortune developing power arms, and may have a few more on the way in Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson. They certainly aren’t opposed to taking prep pitchers early, and would be thrilled to have Matzek fall here.
7. Atlanta Braves - Alex White
If either Wheeler or Matzek were to fall here, I would guess one of them would quickly become the Braves pick. Don’t be convinced that Wheeler would be their first pick just because he pitches in their backyard, as Matzek was on their team in Jupiter last fall. The Braves have also been connected to Alex White, who re-asserted his status as a top 10 pick last Saturday with a dominating performance against East Carolina in the Super Regionals.
8. Cincinnati Reds - Tanner Scheppers
I haven’t seen or heard the Reds connected to too many players, other than knowing they made sure to catch both Aaron Crow and Tanner Scheppers during their independent league stints. The team needs to continue to add arms to their system after graduating a few of their best to the big leagues.
9. Detroit Tigers - Jacob Turner
Similar to having Cameron Maybin (’05), Andrew Miller (’06) and Rick Porcello (’07) fall in their laps, the Tigers will be ready to pounce on Turner if he makes it this far.
10. Washington Nationals - Chad Jenkins
Jenkins and Drew Storen were in Washington recently for a workout, and the Nationals have stated that they intend to take two arms with their top two picks, looking to get them up to the big-leagues fairly quickly to join young hurler Jordan Zimmerman. I’ve also heard Grant Green’s and Mike Trout’s names associated with the Nats if they do go with a bat.
11. Colorado Rockies - Mike Minor
Minor could go as high as third overall to the Padres, and some are convinced he goes in the top 10
(Reds?) somewhere, somehow. I’m projecting he slides just past the top 10, with the Rockies ready to take him here. He fits the profile of the pitchers they like to take in the first round similar to Jeff Francis and Greg Reynolds in that he is known more for his command and three pitch repertoire than he is for his raw stuff.
12. Kansas City Royals - Grant Green
After opening the year as most people’s number two draft-eligible prospect, Green has fallen this spring after not hitting for much power and showing shaky defense at the shortstop position. The Royals once again are prepared to sign a Scott Boras-advised player, which would mark the fourth time in four years they have done so.
13. Oakland Athletics - A.J. Pollock
I have heard players such as Tim Wheeler, Mike Leake and Mike Minor being thrown out as possibilities that could be selected by the A’s. I think Pollock makes the most sense as a versatile player (he could be moved back to the infield) that has put up impressive numbers throughout his college career and also has proved that he can swing a wood bat (he hit .377 on the Cape last summer).
14. Texas Rangers - Shelby Miller
Would the Rangers sprint up to the so-called podium if Shelby Miller made it this far? Matthew Purke would also make sense for the Rangers if they are willing to meet his bonus demands.
15. Cleveland Indians - Eric Arnett
While teams like the A’s and Blue Jays are the first ones thrown out when mentioning teams that almost exclusively draft college players, the Indians also heavily lean that way. They’re said to be targeting college arms, with Arnett, Storen, Leake, Jenkins, Heckathorn and Brothers being among the more likely candidates.
16. Arizona Diamondbacks - Mike Leake
The D-Backs like the Indians would like to get a college arm with one of their two consecutive picks, and Leake makes way too much sense for them not to take him. Leake should go somewhere in the 13-19 range.
17. Arizona Diamondbacks - Bobby Borchering
After getting an arm with one of their two back-to-back picks, the D-Backs likely are going to snatch up one of the better hitters available in the draft, with Borchering looking like the next-best bat. Mike Trout could also be in the mix for this pick.
18. Florida Marlins - Drew Storen
Throw the Marlins into the group of teams targeting college arms with this pick. They have been scouting Arnett, and you could flip-flop this selection and the Nationals pick at #10 should they go with Storen.
19. St. Louis Cardinals - Rex Brothers
In a recurring theme, the Cardinals supposedly are looking at a handful of college arms, with a few lefties in the mix. Brothers fits the mold of pitchers the Cardinals have selected in recent years, with a power arm and questions about whether his future lies in the bullpen or as a starter.
20. Toronto Blue Jays - Chad James
While the Blue Jays are a team that usually target college players early, they have been hot on the trail of Chad James all spring, and seem prepared to take him at this selection. Brothers is also high on their on their list, as are Drew Storen and Chad Jenkins should any of them make it this far.
21. Houston Astros - Mike Trout
This is one pick I don’t feel really good about. First of all, I keeping hearing how many teams are impressed with Mike Trout, yet I have him falling to the 21st pick. Secondly, the Astros are believed to be interested in outfielders, but haven’t been connected to Trout. If Trout were to make it here, he would make a lot of sense for a team that is looking to add as much talent to their system as possible.
22. Minnesota Twins - Everett Williams
Could the Twins really take another prep outfielder? Why not? It’s not like Denard Span stopped them from taking Ben Revere, and Revere didn’t stop them from taking Aaron Hicks. Williams has excellent value at this spot, and offers the team yet another exciting five-tool talent.
23. Chicago White Sox - Raymond Fuentes
The White Sox are always good for a surprise, and I don’t think GM values speed as much as Kenny Williams does. The White Sox are linked to most of the athletic outfielders that are projected to go somewhere in this range, but Fuentes gets the nod for his game-changing speed.
24. Los Angeles Angels - Matthew Purke
The Angels lost out on both Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia this offseason...alright that has little to do with who they’ll take on draft day, but they are one of the teams out there that isn’t afraid in taking a player that is perceived to be a more difficult sign. Purke offers incredible value at this spot as based on talent he’s a top 10 pick.
25. Los Angeles Angels - Matt Hobgood
Southern California offers quite a few players that could be in the Angels crosshairs with these picks, including Hobgood, Matt Davidson, Max Stassi and Jiovanni Mier. They have had a knack developing power arms from within, and know the best way to do so is to stockpile them and hope a few stick.
26. Milwaukee Brewers - Matt Davidson
If Eric Arnett someway, somehow falls this far he will probably be the pick. Other players in the mix for this pick include Jiovanni Mier and Max Stassi, but the Brewers have a history of selecting players with the highest offensive upside, and that’s Davidson here.
27. Seattle Mariners - Tim Wheeler
The Mariners may add a pair of bats with their first two picks if the draft shakes out this way. There are quite a few outfielders, particularly from the college ranks, that could be selected here, from Wheeler to Brett Jackson to Jared Mitchell.
28. Boston Red Sox - Max Stassi
Should someone like Matthew Purke or even Grant Green fall this far, this is where they are most likely to stop falling. Both the Red Sox and the Yankees are prepared to take such a player, like they have been the past several years. If that doesn’t happen, Stassi is known to be high on the Red Sox wish list.
29. New York Yankees - Kyle Gibson
As noted, the Yankees may be poised to take a player that could be viewed as more of a risk financially. Gibson also poses a risk physically, and they may opt for a more safe pick since they will not receive compensation if they don’t sign this pick. The Yankees have the resources to be patient following Gibson this summer.
30. Tampa Bay Rays - Wil Myers
I have a feeling that Myers’ bat will cause him to be selected earlier than this, possibly as high as 10th to the Nationals or 12th to the Royals. Even if Myers isn’t the pick, the Rays are thought to be keyed in a few prep catchers that could be available late in the first round.
31. Chicago Cubs - Brett Jackson
The Cubs are among the teams that are known to be hot for the athletic group of outfielders available. From Wheeler to Jackson to Pollock to Mitchell, they may have a few to choose from should a few of them slide further than expected.
32. Colorado Rockies - Tony Sanchez
Chalk up Sanchez as yet another player I don’t necessarily feel will make it this far, as catchers in particular are more likely to get snatched up earlier than other positional players. And while the first round started off with a heavy run on pitchers, it could very well end with a heavy run on bats.
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.