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College | Story | 3/29/2018

Weekend Preview: Week 7

Patrick Ebert

Jheremy Brown

Mike Rooney

Photo: GoDucks.com/Deborah Mundorff

College Top 25 | Player/Pitcher of the Week | College Player Database

The end of the seventh weekend will mark the mid-way point of the 2018 season, and as always it is hard to fathom that we are almost seven weeks up with seven more to go during the regular season. Thankfully the postseason adds another month of fun, and be sure to keep an eye open for our midseason awards and All-American teams next week.

Due to the Easter holiday most teams across the nation are playing series scheduled from Thursday through Saturday, although cold and rainy weather conditions continue to pester the season. The top-ranked Gators have yet another big task ahead of them as they host their second Top 10-ranked opponent in as many weeks in No. 10 Vanderbilt. The Commodores continue to get the job done and force their way up the Top 25 after initially opening the year on the outside looking in. They have answered the questions we had about them, and then some, with an extremely young yet talented team.

The series to watch will take place in Oxford, Miss., as Ole Miss hosts Arkansas in a 4-vs.-5 matchup. In what has turned into somewhat of a revolving door of series wins in the SEC, with teams seemingly losing one big series after winning one, as shown already by Kentucky, Auburn and Arkansas, the law of averages may suggest that it's Ole Miss' turn to fall.

Louisville looks to lick their wounds and get back on track coming off of consecutive ACC series losses as they travel to Tallahassee to take on a Florida State squad that enjoyed a very loud 4-1 week before their mid-week loss to No. 1 Florida on Tuesday.

Out West both No. 2 Oregon State and No. 3 Stanford look to continue their dominance at Utah and at home against Oregon, respectively. We delve deeper into the Oregon/Stanford series below, while both Wichita State and Missouri have early tests as the newest Top 25-ranked teams as they travel to face East Carolina and Auburn.

Stay tuned to Perfect Game over the weekend as Vinnie Cervino will be on hand to take in Wichita State at East Carolina in Greenville, N.C.

Top 25 in Action

Rk.	Team	Opponent	Location
1	Florida	home vs. No. 10 Vanderbilt	Gainesville, FL
2	Oregon State	at Utah	Salt Lake City, UT
3	Stanford	home vs. Oregon	Stanford, CA
4	Ole Miss	home vs. No. 5 Arkansas	Oxford, MS
5	Arkansas	at No. 4 Ole Miss	Oxford, MS
6	NC State	at Virginia Tech	Blacksburg, VA
7	Kentucky	at Alabama	Tuscaloosa, AL
8	Texas Tech	home vs. West Virginia	Lubbock, TX
9	Florida State	home vs. No. 12 Louisville	Tallahassee, FL
10	Vanderbilt	at No. 1 Florida	Gainesville, FL
11	Auburn	home vs. No. 24 Missouri	Auburn, AL
12	Clemson	home vs. Boston College	Clemson, SC
13	Texas Christian	at Oklahoma State	Stillwater, OK
14	Louisville	at No. 10 Florida State	Tallahassee, FL
15	Texas A&M	at Georgia	Athens, GA
16	Southern Miss	home vs. Rice	Hattiesburg, MS
17	Duke	home vs. Notre Dame	Durham, NC
18	Indiana	home vs. Butler	Bloomington, IN
19	UCLA	at California	Berkeley, CA
20	Louisiana State	home vs. Mississippi State	Baton Rouge, LA
21	Oklahoma	home vs. Baylor	Norman, OK
22	East Carolina	home vs. No. 23 Wichita State	Greenville, NC
23	Wichita State	at No. 22 East Carolina	Greenville, NC
24	Missouri	at No. 11 Auburn	Auburn, AL
25	Sam Houston State	home vs. Abilene Christian	Huntsville, TX

Plucky Ducks

While their overall record (14-9) has prevented them from being considered for the Top 25, don’t overlook the success the Oregon Ducks are enjoying this season. Outside of opening Pac-12 play by being swept at the hands of an upstart Arizona State team, in Phoenix, the Ducks have fared pretty well so far this season, and the early RPI returns have reflected that success with a ranking of 30 as of the games played through Tuesday.

They opened the season with wins over Loyola Marymount and Indiana State in Las Vegas, and then went on to beat LMU again in a weekend series before taking three of four from Florida Atlantic while also beating UC Davis, Gonzaga, and most recently, California.

This weekend they will be the next in line to see if they can bring down what is stacking up to be a very strong and very polished Stanford team that continues to climb the Top 25, currently ranked third in the nation. Like their Pac-12 counterparts, Oregon State, Stanford has yet to falter hardly at all this season with a 18-2 record and arguably the most challenging early season schedule, winning 13 out of 15 games against Cal State Fullerton, Rice, Michigan and Texas.

For Stanford it starts with their starting pitching, but it certainly doesn’t end there, thanks to a very strong bullpen and a starting lineup that has received productivity from several different high-level performers. Brandon Wulff was named the Pac-12 Player of the Week for his gaudy numbers against Southern California, Tim Tawa has been one of the West Coast’s more exciting freshmen to follow, Nico Hoerner has solidified himself as a top draft pick and Maverick Handley has virtually eliminated opposing teams’ running games.

The starting trio of Tristan Beck, Kris Bubic and Erik Miller is a combined 8-1 while mid-week starter, and the younger brother of staff ace Tristan, Brendan Beck, is 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA while receiving a handful of weekend starts due to the number of four-game series the team scheduled as part of their non-conference schedule. Tristan Beck and Bubic have been as-advertised and are not expected to last very long in this year’s MLB Draft while Miller is looking like a premium pick for the 2019 draft thanks to his low- to mid-90s stuff from the left side.

Closer Jack Little has seven saves and has yet to be scored upon in nine relief appearances while Jacob Palisch has allowed just one earned un in 10 appearances out of the bullpen.

By now we’re sure you get it. Stanford’s good, very good.

Oregon boasts a talented draft prospect of their own in hard-throwing righthander Matt Mercer, another potential early-round pick recently ranked 119th overall in Perfect Game’s update of the Top 250 draft-eligible prospects. Mercer is 3-1 with a 2.43 ERA this year, allowing just 32 hits and posting a 39-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 37 innings of work.

Here’s a snippet of Mercer's scouting report from his College Player Database entry from earlier this season:

Mercer has a lean and athletic, 6-foot-1, 185-pound frame with a very quick arm … The pitch sat in the 93-95 mph range early, touching 96, and by the end of his outing he was working his fastball at 91-93 … Mercer attacks hitters early with the pitch, slowly but surely working in his off-speed pitches as the game progresses. The best of which is his sliver, thrown in the 79-81 mph range with late action. His curveball was a slower, big-bending knee buckler with 12-to-6 to 11-to-5 break.

It’s easy to see why Mercer vs. Beck is going to be a can’t-miss matchup, and many to most of the scouts that will be in attendance will certainly stick around for Saturday for Bubic and recently converted closer-turned-starter Kenyon Yovan.

Yovan recorded 15 saves a year ago as a freshman, and has five more so far this season. A talented two-way player upon arriving on campus, he has also appeared in 19 games as a hitter, making 11 starts while hitting .250 in 32 at-bats. Due to the emergence of 2014 PG All-American Parker Kelly in the Ducks’ bullpen, Oregon decided to move Yovan to the weekend rotation against California last weekend and he performed admirably, allowing just one run while striking out four in five innings of work.

With an arsenal that includes an upper-80s to low-90s sinking fastball, a hard-breaking curveball and a developing changeup, Yovan’s move to the rotation was far from a surprise, and gives the Ducks a second formidable arm as part of their weekend staff. He’s draft eligible in 2019 and was ranked 77th overall on the Top 100 prospect list released last November.

And while the offense still has its ups and downs, it is much improved from recent years, hitting .260 as a team with a pair of hitters (Jakob Goldfarb and Kyle Kasser) hitting well above .300. Sophomore infielders Spencer Steer and Gabe Matthews have also looked much better in the batter’s box giving the Oregon lineup a more complete overall feel.

As noted, Kelly’s emergence has been the biggest story so far for the Ducks. After making 12 appearances as a freshman and 14 more as a sophomore, with 33 1/3 combined innings, Kelly has already thrown 22 innings this season in 13 relief appearances. He is 4-0 with a save and a 2.05 ERA and an impressive 33-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has been extended past the customary one inning of relief work in eight of his 13 appearances, providing as many as three innings on three different occasions so far this year, and has done a really good job keeping the ball down between his upper-80s to low-90s fastball, splitter and slider.

– Patrick Ebert

American showdown, strength vs. strength

The AAC garnered much preseason attention for its depth of quality teams and its surprising volume of potential first round picks. No. 22 East Carolina hosts newly ranked Wichita State (No. 23) this weekend and this is the Shockers’ first conference series as a member of the AAC.

Wichita State enters the weekend with an impressive 18-4 record but this will be their stiffest weekend test by a wide margin. That said, this is a very experienced position player group led by two of those aforementioned first round candidates: centerfielder Greyson Jenista and third baseman Alec Bohm. Both Jenista (.338-6-17) and Bohm (.333-5-22) are off to good starts and they have drawn a combined 41 walks as compared to just 20 strikeouts. Both players offer exciting projection born of their above average size and athleticism so this exceptional management of the strike zone just adds to the luster.

East Carolina burst onto the scene with a week two series win versus North Carolina. The Pirates then went on to sweep Maryland and followed that up with a very impressive road series win last weekend at UCF. Their 18-5 record speaks loudly for a program that has endured several high highs and low lows over the last two seasons.

The key question in this series: can ECU’s conference leading pitching staff (2.58 team ERA) contain the two Wichita State stars? Friday night starter Trey Benton is a traditional power arm with an incredible 39-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Saturday starter Chris Holba is third in the AAC with a 1.32 ERA and he is 5-0 through six starts.

East Carolina features the most passionate baseball fan base in the American so the Shockers will be welcomed to their new league in style.

How many bids for the Big Ten?

The Big Ten has earned 13 bids to the NCAA Tournament over the last three seasons. This weekend in particular has the makings of one with big Regional implications.

Butler, with a 16-4 record, heads to Bloomington to take on No. 18 Indiana. While Indiana appears to be a lock for the NCAA Tournament, the Hoosiers also have the makings of a solid hosting resume. The Bulldogs, like most Big East teams, need to seize upon this precious RPI opportunity if that league is going to earn two bids for the second year in a row.

Speaking of the Big East, St. John’s heads to Minnesota for a weekend series. The Johnnies are very talented but their 12-7 record is the result of two extreme streaks: eight straight wins to start the season and then a recent 1-7 stretch that included five losses to the likes of Kansas and Connecticut. For Minnesota, who looks every bit the part of a Regional club, this is a chance for a series win versus a program with College Baseball cache.

Finally, Illinois will host Iowa this weekend and these are two programs with excellent recent history. Iowa has been to the NCAA Tournament in two of the last three seasons under Rick Heller. Illinois was the Big Ten’s second ever Top 8 National Seed in 2015. This Illinois team swept Northwestern to start Big Ten play and that was a nice follow up to their 3-0 showing versus three Pac-12 teams in the Dairy Queen Classic. Don’t be surprised if the Illini end up challenging Indiana for the league title.

– Mike Rooney

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