Field of 64: May 4 | Perfect Game Top 25 | College Spotlight | College Player Database

This past Monday was exactly three weeks from Selection Monday. With just two weeks left in the regular season followed by Conference Tournament weekend, let’s see what our Projected Field of 64 looks like. As always, our focus will be on the 33 at-large bids and the 16 Host Sites.

Our format will be as follows: the 31 automatic bids, followed by the 33 at-large bids, followed by the 16 Host Sites including the Top 8 National Seeds. There will also be a list of “Bubble Out” teams followed by some commentary.

Note: the number listed after each team will be their RPI as of Sunday night of this week.

31 Automatic Bids by Conference:

America East: Binghamton #39
AAC: South Florida #23
A10: Rhode Island #46
ACC: North Carolina #2
ASUN: Jacksonville #82

Big 12: TCU #6
Big East: Creighton #153
Big South: Winthrop #77
Big 10: Maryland #24
Big West: Long Beach State #25

CAA: William & Mary #98
CUSA: Southern Miss #19
Horizon: Wright State #102
Ivy: Yale #68
MAAC: Fairfield #160

MAC: Kent State #61
MEAC: Norfolk State #243
MVC: Missouri State #17
MWC: New Mexico #40
NEC: Bryant #142

OVC: Tennessee Tech #88
Pac 12: Oregon State #1
Patriot: Navy #184
SEC: Florida #4
Southern: Mercer #49

Southland: McNeese State #42
SWAC: Jackson State #219
Summit: Oral Roberts #95
Sun Belt: UT Arlington #81
WCC: BYU #59

WAC: New Mexico State #110

33 At-Large Bids:

Texas Tech #3
Louisville #5
Clemson #7
Virginia #8
Kentucky #9

Arizona #10
Stanford #11
West Virginia #12
Wake Forest #13
LSU #14

Mississippi State #16
Arkansas #18
Oklahoma #20
Indiana #21
Texas #22

Houston #29
UCF #30
Michigan #31
Texas A&M #33
Southeastern Louisiana #34

Vanderbilt #26
Baylor #15
South Carolina #27
Florida State #28
Cal State Fullerton #36

Auburn #37
Louisiana Tech #38
UCLA #52
Louisiana Lafayette #59
St. John’s #32

Ole Miss #35
Nebraska #41
Loyola Marymount #67

Bubble Out:

Old Dominion #44
Connecticut #45
NC State #48
DBU #50
San Diego #53
Washington #54
FAU #56
South Alabama #51
Coastal Carolina #63
Kansas #62


Bubble Out Tier 2:

 Liberty #55
Oregon #65
St. Mary’s 69
Miami #71
Sam Houston State #72
Minnesota #75
Georgia Southern #76
Charlotte #78
Gonzaga #80


Host Sites (Top 8 are the National Seeds)

 1. Oregon State
2. North Carolina
3. Texas Tech
4. Florida
5. Louisville
6. TCU
7. Kentucky
8. Clemson

9. Virginia 
10. Stanford
11. Mississippi State
12. Arizona
13. Wake Forest
14. LSU
15. Southern Miss
16. Long Beach State

Random Thoughts:

One of the interesting parts of selecting a Field of 64 is attempting to identify my own biases. Let’s not forget that the Selection Committee is made up entirely of human beings, and all humans have natural inclinations. So here are some of my preferences and mental checklists.

My Field of 64 uses RPI as a starting point and I believe that the Committee does the same thing. No RPI higher than 80 makes my initial board unless there is a compelling case for inclusion. Recent history tells us that an RPI in that neighborhood is a deal breaker.

Conference finish is another high priority item for me. I really struggle with teams who have an under-.500 record in league play. The SEC and Big 12 might be an exception in 2017 but a .500 record in league play seems like a very reasonable bar to clear, especially when you might assume that you are in a conference of peer schools. On the positive side, Loyola Marymount is a team whose conference performance has led to their inclusion in my field.

Non-conference strength of schedule (NC SOS) is another metric that always catches my eye. SOS is tricky because “intended” SOS and actual SOS are two totally different things. How your schedule actually plays out is mostly uncontrollable but this metric can still be revealing. Virginia would be a good example in this case where the Cavaliers’ NC SOS of 186 is currently hurting their candidacy for a Top 8 National Seed.

I also do my best to use the “eye ball” test as the Committee will do through the use of the Regional Advisory Committees (RAC). There are eight RACs as the Selection Committee splits the nation into eight regions. Each RAC is made of one coach from each of the conferences included in that region. The job of the RAC is to rank the teams in their region. This “eye ball” test is meant to provide a check and balance for the RPI and its related metrics. Louisiana Lafayette is a case in point here as I really believe in the Ragin’ Cajuns’ talent level, especially on the mound. So I have included ULL despite an RPI in the 50s.

All in all, the Selection Committee’s job gets harder every year as the parity in College Baseball continues to increase. I know how difficult this process is for me each week.. and I’m not doing it for real.