For the past several years at this time of year I have taken a peak at the teams selecting towards the top of the draft trying to determine which players those teams may be leaning towards. While teams are still whittling down their lists and starting to figure out the players they are prepared to take in less than month, sometimes you can get a sense for the players they may be interested by looking at their recent draft history and a few other factors that may play into their selection.
Here is how the first 16 picks stack up this year, 16 since the first round is longer by two picks this year due to the compensatory picks for unsigned ’08 first-rounders Aaron Crow and Gerrit Cole. I’ll go one more to 17 since the Diamondbacks own both the 16th and 17th overall selections.
1. Washington Nationals
You don’t have to look at the Nationals front office or their recent draft history to try and figure out who they will take with this pick. While Stephen Strasburg’s asking price is bound to be record setting, all signs and sources have indicated that he will indeed be the first overall pick. The negotiations will likely come down to the final hour on August 1, but a deal will get done.
Two questions follow: Will Strasburg make his debut this year, and if so, will it be at the big-league level? And, who do the Nats take with the 10th overall pick since they are going to need a lot of money to get Strasburg signed?
People are already guessing that Strasburg will make his big-league debut in September when rosters expand after he is able to rest up by taking off most of the summer from his current, heavy workload at San Diego State.
I’ll do my best to answer the second question below...
Projected Pick: Stephen Strasburg
2. Seattle Mariners
There’s a new sheriff in town running the show for the Mariners, Jack Zduriencik, the Brewers former scouting director who is often credited for re-building the Brewers from one of the worst teams in baseball to one of its best.
The Brewers were able to re-build their organization from top to bottom by placing a revitalized interest in scouting and player development, with Zduriencik trusting his scouting staff to find the best players in the nation with an emphasis on tools. That means this pick is likely to be based on the best player available philosophy, even if it will be Tom McNamara calling the shot and not Zduriencik.
While the Mariners have a tough call to make, since the talent after Strasburg is really up for debate, my guess is that with the team’s first pick serving as the team’s GM he does something he didn’t do in nine years with the Brewers: Take a college pitcher in the first round. Five-tool prep star Donovan Tate is probably the only other player I could seeing going at this selection, but the pitching depth is just too good to pass up at this point.
The Mariners do have two extra, early picks this year, the 27th and 33rd overall picks, since type A free agent Raul Ibanez signed with the Phillies. I’m guessing the Mariners have budgeted the way they need to to sign all of their early picks for roughly slot value.
Projected Pick: Tanner Scheppers
3. San Diego Padres
Under the guidance of scouting “chief” Bill Gayton and advisor Grady Fuson, the Padres have taken a lot of college players in recent years, and I don’t suspect that they will change direction with the third overall pick in this year’s draft.
The organization definitely has a need for pitching, and once again the talent stacks up favorably for such a selection. The Padres do not have any extra early picks, although they don’t exactly have a history of going out of their way to sign players that are considered to be difficult signs. The last time they picked this early was in 2004, when they had the first overall selection, a pick ownership got involved with and led to the surprise selection of Matt Bush.
Hopefully for the Padres and their fans they will have the resouces to at least sign the player for slot value, and if I had to guess they would like to pick between Scheppers and North Carolina ace Alex White.
Projected Pick: Alex White
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
1992 was the last year the Pirates had a winning season, and they realize that the only way they are going to get back to their winning ways is to follow in the foosteps of teams like the Brewers, Marlins, Rays and Twins among others to procure and develop the majority of your impact talent from within. That means making the necessary investments in the draft, something the Pirates had not done prior to the 2008 draft.
Last year they took Pedro Alvarez with the second overall pick, and paid the money necessary to get the Scott Boras client in their system. It took a little bit of time, patience, and a lot of money, not to mention a few loopholes, but Alvarez is in the system and is one of the best prospects in the game.
That is something they need to continue to do. They have an extra pick early in the draft since they were unable to sign Tanner Scheppers as a second round pick a year ago (a player I’m sure they would love to have another chance to take), which will be the 49th overall pick, so they will need nearly six figures to get that pick in the fold. Pitchers haven’t been particularly good to them in recent years, as a series of injuries and ineffectiveness have nipped nearly each and every one of their early picks for the past 10 years.
If they’re committed to the future, their pick may very well be another difficult one, with Donovan Tate being a perfect player for the team to build around similar to Pedro Alvarez. Grant Green may be another if the organization is convinced he is more like the player that opened eyes last summer than the one that has been somewhat disappointing this spring.
And they’re not going to shy away from pitching just because their luck hasn’t been particularly good in recent years. As noted, I’m sure they would love another shot at Scheppers, and Alex White is probably high on their wish list. Kyle Gibson could be in the mix as well.
Projected Pick: Donovan Tate
5. Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are another organization that have come around in recent years, recognizing that to be able to compete in the big-leagues you need to invest in the draft just like every other successful team in the game. Having the Pirates pass on Matt Wieters in the 2007 draft may be the best thing to ever happen to the franchise moving forward.
Once again the team did not gain, or lose, any picks this year. They have added quite a bit of talent to their system via trades (Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, Felix Pie) as well as early draft picks such as Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta. In particular the organization has a wealth of arms to look forward to.
Because of that you would think on paper the Orioles would love to add another bat to the system, another core piece of the lineup to join the likes of Wieters, Jones, Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts. Donovan Tate, Dustin Ackley and Grant Green may all fit the bill if that is indeed the direction the team chooses to take, and don’t rule out Mike Trout, who is flying up draft boards faster than any other player (plus, the Orioles do like to pluck players that are close to their own backyard).
Projected Pick: Dustin Ackley
6. San Francisco Giants
Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain give the Giants an incredibly promising duo of young arms to stabilize their starting rotation moving forward, with a nice current supporting cast. They also have a pair of promising arms on the way up, Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson, both of whom participated in the Aflac All-American Classic during the summer of 2006, and both of whom were selected in the first round of the 2007 draft.
That doesn’t mean the Giants won’t take another pitcher. It does show that they are quite good at recognizing and developing pitching talent.
In a perfect world, I’m sure the organization would love to take a bat, but the draft just doesn’t stack up very well for them to take an impact hitter at this spot. And outside of Lincecum, they haven’t been shy about adding a prep arm early in the draft, with a preference for projectable, high-powered arms with the ability to spin a breaking ball. Righties Shelby Miller, Zack Wheeler, Jacob Turner and lefties Matthew Purke and Tyler Matzek all fit the bill. Kyle Gibson could be in the mix as well.
Signability shouldn’t be an issue with the Giants, who have a good history signing the players they take, and they don’t have an extra, early pick to get in the fold like they did two years ago.
Projected Pick: Shelby Miller
7. Atlanta Braves
The Braves love picking players from their own backyard. The East Cobb program serves somewhat as a youth extension to the Braves organization, as there are years in which you wonder why they even bother scouting any other part of the nation than the Southeast.
Overall the organization is a well-oiled machine, and they have been accumulating more and more talent hoping to take another 14-year run in which they dominate the National League East division. Their system is particularly deep with their usual assortment of power arms, and they also have some nice talent in the outfield. They are definitely one of the more high school focused teams in Major League Baseball, as the team’s first pick in eight of the last nine years (Roy Clark’s tenure as Scouting Director) have come from the high school ranks.
Their wish-list will probably resemble both the team ahead of them in the Giants and the team behind them in the Reds with an eye towards power arms. If you want a good idea of the players they really like, look no further than their WWBA World Championship roster from last October, in which potential first-round picks Tyler Matzek, Shelby Miller, Chad James and Matt Hobgood all participated. Georgia native Zack Wheeler also would be a good fit here.
The Braves have always done a good job budgeting for the draft, although they haven’t had extra, early picks for a few years.
Projected Pick: Tyler Matzek
8. Cincinnati Reds
I have always found the Reds to be one of the more interesting organizations in baseball, as they seem to do more with less than any other team, and recently have been able to develop a pretty deep pitching staff under the radar. The names are familiar when you read them off, but the usual Big Red Machine offense that typically defines this organization is currently the team’s bigger weakness.
After graduating pitchers such as Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey to the big leagues, their system favors bats at this point in time. Their top pick in each of the last four years has been a hitter, so you would think they may be due to draft an arm, and they, like the Giants and Braves, aren’t afraid in taking a prep pitching early.
So bring back the names that have already been mentioned before between Miller, Purke, Matzek, Turner and Wheeler. Kyle Gibson continues to be a candidate to go early as well, and this is probably the part of the draft in which Aaron Crow is going to get prepared to have his name called.
Projected Pick: Kyle Gibson
9. Detroit Tigers
How the once mighty have fallen. The Tigers quickly put themselves back on the radar in 2006 with a surprising season that led to them making it to the World Series, where they lost to the St. Louis Cardinals. Despite having a star-studded roster the past few years, it appears as though that success may have been a flash-in-the-pan.
As it pertains to the draft, they took three players that dropped due to signability in three consecutive years, starting with Cameron Maybin in 2005, continuing with Andrew Miller in ’06 and finishing with Rick Porcello two years ago. Maybin and Miller were used to acquire Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from the Marlins, while Porcello soared through the minor leagues and is currently a member of the Tigers big-league starting staff.
Basically, you know money isn’t going to be an object for the Tigers, at least it wouldn’t seem to be, and this could be the spot in the draft in which a player that was thought to go higher slides no further.
The Tigers loaded up on power arms in last year’s draft, and overall they are lacking impact bats in the the minors, even if that doesn’t seem to be an immediate concern at the big-league level thanks to players such as Cabrera, Curtis Granderson and Magglio Ordonez.
Projected Pick: Grant Green
10. Washington Nationals
The second of two top-10 picks for the Nationals. Strasburg of course is going to require a lot of money to sign, but the Nationals may have a little more money to play with if they choose to back off their recent resurgence in Latin America due to a fair amount of controversy that led to Jim Bowden stepping down from his post.
It is important to note that the Nationals cannot receive a compensatory selection in the 2010 draft should they not sign the player taken at this slot, since this pick is already a compensatory selection for not signing Aaron Crow a year ago.
As for Crow, I think it’s unlikely the Nationals would take him a second time after they had a hard time getting him signed last year. This spot would seem to be a good place for a much more signable pick, including players that may not otherwise be considered to go this high. However, I have heard that the Nationals are showing quite a bit of interest in Grant Green late this spring, which may indicate they are looking to make a very loud statement on draft day (again, assuming Strasburg goes first overall).
Regardless of the reasoning, the Nationals need to add as much talent to their system as they can, and in recent years it seems as though they have been taking a best player available approach.
Projected Pick: Mike Trout
11. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have followed the Tigers lead with an exciting, break-out season in 2007 only to fall sharply and significantly last year. The Rockies didn’t have the same window of opportunity that the Tigers did, with a roster that went from cost effective to costly seemingly overnight, which led to players such as Matt Holliday being dealt in favor for younger, cheaper options.
And that is the cycle teams like the Rockies will have to continue, just like the usual collection of teams that are on a similar cycle hoping that their window of opportunity presents itself at a time where everything clicks (similar to both the 1997 and 2003 Marlins).
They have plenty of young talent to point to, thanks to their own drafting efforts, scouting Latin America and the talent that came in return from the A’s for Matt Holliday. They have been targeting college arms early in the draft the past several years, once again, an area that is favorable at this point in the draft. The Rockies know that pitchers that command a fastball well can succeed at Coors Field, and that may lead them to arms such as Aaron Crow, Rex Brothers or James Paxton. Kyle Gibson would be a good pick here should he make it this far.
The Rockies did gain an extra first-round pick and an early sandwich pick, the 32nd and 34th picks, for losing Brian Fuentes to the Angels in free agency, so they will need some additional funds to get those too picks signed.
Projected Pick: Rex Brothers
12. Kansas City Royals
Things are looking better in Kansas City, as General Manager Dayton Moore seemed to turn the organization around from the very instant he walked in the door. Coming from the Braves, Moore understands the important of building a smaller market team through the draft, and he has also been able to increase the team’s payroll while making a few splashes on the free agent market.
He has also done so via the draft, taking a Scott Boras-advised player for three consecutive years with their first pick (Luke Hochevar, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer). If the draft shakes up the way I have it so far, he could make it a fourth year, as local talent Aaron Crow may be too good to pass up at this point.
Due to early, premium picks that include Alex Gordon, Moustakas and Hosmer, the Royals may be looking for pitching in this draft. In addition to Crow, Gibson would also be a good pick at this spot, as would Zack Wheeler, Jacob Turner and Matt Hobgood.
Projected Pick: Aaron Crow
13. Oakland Athletics
Don’t let the A’s college-first reputation fool you. Two of their best current starters, Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, were drafted out of high school, although the team has taken only one high school player with its top pick, Cahill, since they took Eric Chavez in 1996.
And they love polished college arms. From Barry Zito to James Simmons, they have always placed a premium on pitchability as much as, if not more than, raw stuff. Because of that, Mike Leake makes perfect sense here, but I wouldn’t rule out a prep arm such as Matt Hobgood or Chad James who are drawing interest for their stuff as well as their polish.
Although it should be noted that the A’s could stand to add some impact bats to their system since players such as Travis Buck, Bobby Crosby, Daric Barton and Cliff Pennington haven’t turned out as well as they would have liked.
No extra picks for the A’s this year, but they likely will next year assuming Matt Holliday hits the free agent market as expected.
Projected Pick: Mike Leake
14. Texas Rangers
The Rangers have the power of flexibility with this pick, in that their system is brimming with talent, allowing them to take a best player available approach. From pitching to bats to gloves, the Rangers have a little of everything in their system.
In recent years they have shown a preference towards college bats and prep arms, which is a similar approach to teams like the Twins and Reds. I’m sure the Rangers will be looking to continue to add arms to their system, hoping that the more they throw up against the wall the more likely a few will stick long-term.
If there is any organizational need it may be corner outfielders with power. While they have committed themselves to improving their pitching staff, the Rangers have, and always will, win by out-scoring their opponents.
The organization has had quite a few extra, early picks in recent years, and have yet another one this year after losing type B free agent Milton Bradley to the Cubs.
Projected Pick: Jacob Turner
15. Cleveland Indians
While teams like the A’s and Blue Jays are known to be arguably the two most college-oriented organizations in all of baseball, the Indians have selected a college player with their first pick every year since 2002.
That could change this year as the talent at this part of the draft definitely favors some of the prep arms that should be available. From Turner, Wheeler, Purke and Hobgood, there could be plenty of appealing options here.
I’m guessing the pick will indeed be a pitcher. The Indians have taken a pitcher with its top pick each of the last four years, and their system is stocked with impact bats. Pitching is another story. If they focus on the college ranks, they may be choosing between some live-armed lefties such as Rex Brothers, James Paxton and Andrew Oliver.
Projected Pick: Zack Wheeler
16. & 17. Arizona Diamondbacks
Thanks to the Dodgers late offseason acquisition of Orlando Hudson, the D-Backs picked up an extra first-round pick, and own seven selections among the top 64 overall picks.
The past two years they have used quite a few premium picks on pitchers, mostly from the college ranks, but a few notable, high-profile arms (Jarrod Parker, Brett Anderson) from the high school crop as well. Anderson was part of a big prospect package used to acquire Dan Haren, a trade that thinned out much of the organization’s impact talent.
Don’t be surprised if the team takes bats with these next two picks back-to-back (similar to when they took Conor Jackson and Carlos Quentin 10 picks from one another in the 2003 draft). Again, the draft doesn’t necessarily stack up in the D-Backs favor if that’s the way they want to go. Should they go with a more prudent best player available direction, they should have some interesting prep arms to choose from.
Projected Picks: Matthew Purke, Bobby Borchering
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.