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College  | Rankings | 4/14/2016

Weekend Preview: Week 9

Patrick Ebert
Jheremy Brown
Mike Rooney
Andrew Krause
Photo: Kelly Price, MSU Media Relations




National Notebook | Perfect Game Top 25 | Video Vault | Perfect Game College Baseball on SiriusXM College Sports

Although this week has only three matchups between Top 25 ranked clubs (Texas A&M at Mississippi State, Kentucky at Vanderbilt, Clemson at Louisville) the series between the third-ranked Bulldogs and the fourth-ranked Aggies may be the biggest series to be played so far this season. Mississippi State fans didn't take kindly to Perfect Game keeping them behind Florida in the Top 25 rankings after taking the series from Florida, in Gainesville no less. Those fans have plenty to argue with, as MSU has now beat the Nos. 2, 7 and 11 clubs in the nation – as well as Georgia – to kick off SEC play.

Although Arkansas fell out of the Top 25 two weeks ago and continued to struggle, as they were swept last weekend by Ole Miss, Florida still has a very tough task ahead of them as they look to get back on track against the Razorbacks in Fayetteville.

Louisville also looks to get back, although they return home – where they have fared much better than on the road – against the 23rd-ranked Clemson Tigers. The Cardinals, who are 19-1 at Jim Patterson Stadium, are still looking for a statement road series win after losing to Ole Miss, Miami and Florida State, although their next best chance to do so will be May 6-8 when they travel to Chapel Hill to take on North Carolina.

The Big Ten also offers a promising series as Nebraska heads to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan. The two teams appear to be going in opposite directions, as the Huskers have been red-hot, going 19-4 in their last 23 games, while the Wolverines were removed from the Top 25 earlier this week after going 1-3 last week, losing their midweek game to Notre Dame and a pair of contests over the weekend to Minnesota.

Stay tuned to Perfect Game this weekend for first-hand reports from Jheremy Brown, who will be in Storrs, Conn. for Houston/UConn, and Brian Sakowski, who will see Kent State ace lefthander Eric Lauer take on Eastern Michigan as well as a game of the Nebraska/Michigan series in Ann Arbor.


Top 25 in Action
Rk. Team Opponent Location
1 Miami at Duke Durham, NC
2 Florida at Arkansas Fayetteville, AR
3 Mississippi State home vs. No. 4 Texas A&M Starkville, MS
4 Texas A&M at No. 3 Mississippi State Starkville, MS
5 Texas Christian home vs. Oklahoma Fort Worth, TX
6 Florida State at Wake Forest Winston-Salem, NC
7 Vanderbilt home vs. No. 21 Kentucky Nashville, TN
8 South Carolina at Georgia Athens, GA
9 Oregon State at Washington State Pullman, WA
10 Louisville home vs. No. 23 Clemson Tallahassee, FL
11 Mississippi at Alabama Tuscaloosa, AL
12 NC State at Georgia Tech Atlanta, GA
13 North Carolina at Virginia Charlottesville, VA
14 Texas Tech home vs. San Diego State Lubbock, TX
15 California at Arizona State Phoenix, AZ
16 BYU at Saint Mary's Moraga, CA
17 Louisiana State at Missouri Columbia, MO
18 FAU at Marshall Beckley, WV
19 Coastal Carolina home vs. Presbyterian Conway, SC
20 UC Santa Barbara home vs. Cal State Northridge Santa Barbara, CA
21 Kentucky at No. 7 Vanderbilt Charleston, SC
22 Southern Miss at UAB Birmingham, AL
23 Clemson at No. 10 Louisville Boston, MA
24 Missouri State at Wichita State Wichita, KS
25 Houston at UConn Storrs, CT



Marquee Matchup #1

No. 4 Texas A&M at No. 3 Mississippi State

After not only capturing the series against the previously top-ranked Florida Gators last weekend, but doing so in Gainesville where the Gators had a 29-game win streak, the Mississippi State Bulldogs climbed all the way up to No. 3 in the Top 25, a five-spot jump from their previous perch at No. 8. Coach John Cohen’s club did what No. 4 Texas A&M was unable to do two weeks ago in taking the series in Gainesville, but nonetheless this is perhaps the marquee matchup of the weekend and one of the best to this point in the season.

Having been covered in extreme detail to this point in the season with player breakdowns and analysis (click here for Andrew Krause’s first-hand observation of Dakota Hudson), we’ll dive a little deeper into how both squads have done what they’ve done and how they’ve been able to do it.

As a whole the Bulldogs were an extremely interesting team in the preseason, and their potential upside, though it had yet to be proven in-season, is what helped land them in the Top 25 to open the year. Some of those questions marks have been answered in a big way and Mississippi State has continued to climb. Some of those questions included can Dakota Hudson perform like he did on the Cape? Will Brent Rooker step up and hit the way he did last summer? How will the fresh faces fare against SEC caliber talent?
Boomer White (Texas A&M)
Hudson has arguably been the most dominant pitcher in all of college baseball this spring, part of the reason he was named the Midseason Pitcher of the Year. His ability on Friday nights, though he’s 4-2 on the year, has helped his team topple four ranked opponents on the weekends, and a fifth in the Georgia Bulldogs, taking at least two games each series.

Game three of the weekend series had been the team’s Achilles Heel, losing three straight until last weekend against the Gators when they started Konnor Pilkington, who provided four shutout innings. Always a pivotal game in any series, it will be crucial for the Bulldogs to get another quality start as the Aggies have plenty of depth and experience throughout their rotation.

Offensively, this is a well-rounded club that’s seen Brent Rooker do his thing this spring and they have received steady contributions from newcomers. JUCO transfer Jack Kruger and freshman Jake Mangum, who was recently named SEC Player of the Week after going 6-for-14 against the Gators, have been steady forces, as has Jacob Robson, who brings a speed element to the top of the order.

The Aggies have tinkered with their starting rotation some and have used a different Friday starter each of the last three weeks of conference play. Righthander Jace Vines, who had been the staff ace, has been working his way back to the Friday night role after an illness shifted Coach Rob Childress’ plans for the series in Gainesville. The other two rotation pieces were just as effective last weekend in Brigham Hill and veteran senior Kyle Simonds, who gives his squad a chance to win every time he takes the ball. Texas A&M will once again send Hill, Vines and Simonds out in the same order this weekend.

As good as the pitching staff as been this spring (3.00 team ERA) the offense has been equally as impressive as six everyday regulars are hitting north of .300 on the year. Coming off a weekend against Georgia in which they out-scored the Bulldogs 30-3, this is an offense that can erupt in any given inning and change the course of a game within a handful of pitches. Traveling to Starkville isn’t an easy task, but with the way Boomer White and Hunter Melton have been swinging the bats it should certainly help the Aggies cause.

This might not be a No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup but it’s certainly not far off and should be an entertaining series from the first pitch of game one to the final pitch of game three. The biggest key to the series could very well be that Sunday game and how Mississippi State’s starter is able to match up against the potent Aggies lineup.


Marquee Matchup #2

Nebraska at Michigan

Michigan heads into this home series vs. the Cornhuskers of Nebraska on a bit of a skid, having lost three straight games prior to their win on Wednesday over Eastern Michigan, two to Minnesota and one in a non-conference midweek contest vs. Michigan State. They stand at 22-9 overall and 3-2 in the Big Ten.
Ryan Boldt (Nebraska)
Nebraska will head to Ann Arbor at 22-11 overall and 7-2 in the Big Ten conference. They took two of three against Northwestern last weekend, but lost a midweek game against Creighton, making them 2-2 over their last four games. This series will match a pair of the potential favorites for the Big Ten championship, with both also shooting towards the goal of hosting a Regional.

Michigan's pitching is still a big strength, with four potential starters, all of whom boasting ERAs under 3.00. In fact, the team ERA is only 3.33, and they strike out more than a batter per inning as a staff. Their bats have had some ups and downs this season, but the lineup is still loaded with experienced and talented hitters.

Carmen Benedetti picked right up where he left off last season, getting on base a ton and hitting for lots of extra-base power, while lead off hitter Jake Bivens leads the team in batting average. Catcher and cleanup hitter Harrison Wenson may be the surprise of the conference thus far, showing advanced feel to hit with legitimate power in his first real playing time of his career.

Nebraska, meanwhile, looks like a different team offensively than they did a year ago. Outfielder Ryan Boldt is arguably the best draft prospect in the series as it pertains to the 2016 class, and in his junior year he's finally starting to show power in game situations, which is exactly what scouts have been dying to see since he was in high school. He's hitting .344 with 16 extra-base hits (including 4 home runs), along with 16 stolen bases and his usual quality defense in center field. Also making their marks offensively for Nebraska are Ben Miller (.362-5-24) and Jake Meyers (.328, 14 extra-base hits), while thumper Scott Schrieber leads the team in home runs with seven.

This looks to be, on paper, a Michigan arms vs. Nebraska bats battle. If the Michigan starters can throw strikes and neutralize the power that Nebraska has shown in 2016, and those are two huge "ifs”, they could be in line to take the series. But if Nebraska hits like they have all season it could be a long weekend for the Wolverines.


Mound Matchup

Mike Rucker (BYU) vs. Corbin Burnes (St. Mary's)

The WCC has seen several coaching changes over the last decade and the result has been a league that is deeper than it's ever been. In past years, the Pepperdine/San Diego rivalry has consistently dominated the headlines. This week's Marquee Pitching Matchup is the perfect example of how quickly times have changed.

BYU is off to an incredible 26-5 start and the Cougars look like a for sure at-large bid to Regionals if they don't win the WCC tournament. Likewise, St. Mary's has made massive strides under third-year head coach Eric Valenzuela and this is the most talented Gaels' team in program history.
Corbin Burnes (Tod Fierner/Saint Mary's College Athletics)
The Thursday night matchup (BYU does not play on Sundays) will feature two older righthanders with very real draft helium. Michael Rucker of BYU is your vintage "pitchability" college arm whose velocity has taken a significant jump forward. On the other hand, Corbin Burnes of St. Mary's has always had elite arm strength and his pitchability has made dramatic improvements in recent weeks.

Rucker commands his fastball to both sides of the plate and also features a slider that he can steal a strike with. Rucker's changeup is an out-pitch and he will throw it to both lefties and righties. While this is Rucker's foundational arsenal, the coup de gras for him has been an increased fastball velocity that now sits 91-93 mph and has touched 95 mph. Scouting reports like this are less than encouraging for a college hitter.

Corbin Burnes is an athlete deluxe and he operates on the mound like a converted position player. Burnes is listed at 6-foot-3 but his plus athleticism gives the appearance of someone smaller than that. Regardless, it is a big arm with a hyper-aggressive mentality.

Burnes' fastball operates in the 92-96 mph range and he offers a four-pitch mix. The changeup is his best secondary weapon and it can be a swing-and-miss pitch at 80-81 mph. Burnes' slider sits 82-84 mph and it has the makings of a third out-pitch.

While Burnes' stuff garners most of the attention, the catalyst for his draft buzz has been the aforementioned jump forward in command and pitchability. In his last start against Pacific, Burnes needed just 62 pitches to complete six innings. Most importantly, 50 of his 62 pitches were strikes.

Rucker versus Burnes will feature two of the WCC's top four ERAs as they sport a 2.21 and 1.50 respectively. This game will be heavily scouted by the professional community and these are two arms who could make a big impact during College Baseball's postseason.


National Notes

• Debuting at No. 21 in the latest iteration of Perfect Game’s Top 25 rankings, Kentucky cracked the rankings for the first time this season. The overall attack from the Wildcats has been a steady one as the offense is hitting a hair shy of .300 as a unit and have already socked a combined 31 home runs. JUCO transfer Gunnar McNeill has been fantastic this spring and has been the most consistent bat, hitting .357/.400/.527, while senior righthander Dustin Beggs has done the equivalent on the mound. A Midseason Perfect Game All-American, Beggs is 7-0 on the year with an absurd 53-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio and has limited opponents to a mere .191 average. Coach Gary Henderson’s club look to topple another highly ranked giant in the seventh-ranked Vanderbilt Commodores, in Nashville, and with the way his club has come together it should certainly make for an entertaining series.

• While Louisville’s road struggles, as noted above, have been well documented, they have been dominant at home (20-1) and return to Jim Patterson Stadium this weekend to host the 23rd-ranked Clemson Tigers. Both teams are looking to rebound after tough ACC weekends, as Clemson narrowly escaped being removed from the rankings and will need to win this series to retain a Top 25 ranking. Louisville’s overall numbers are still solid despite taking one on the chin at the hands of Florida State last weekend, as they’re hitting .328 as a team with 30 home runs while keeping pressure on opposing defenses with 57 stolen bases. They also have a 2.95 ERA and one of the deepest bullpens in all of college baseball. Outside of Seth Beer’s monster freshman season, Clemson hasn’t been quite as dominant statistically, and are 8-7 in ACC play after a torrid start, but certainly have a knack for late-inning dramatics.

• Don’t overlook Minnesota’s 19-10 start to the season, with a 4-1 start in the Big Ten, which includes the Gophers taking both of their games against Michigan last weekend. The offense is scorching right now, with six regulars hitting over .300, and two of those – Matt Fiedler and Austin Athmann – hitting over .400. They will play host to Maryland whose Friday and Saturday starters, Taylor Bloom and Brian Shaffer, threw incredibly well last Friday in a doubleheader sweep over Ohio State. Mike Shawaryn, who entered the year as Pitcher of the Year favorite, has not been nearly as dominant this season and as a result has been pushed back to the team’s Sunday starter. How that starting trio navigates through Minnesota’s lineup over the weekend will likely decide this series.

• The American Athletic is a conference that is certainly on the rise, and though Houston is currently the only ranked team (25) there are a couple of others (East Carolina, Tulane) who have been on the verge or breaking in the past few weeks. And it’s with Houston that we’ll begin as the Cougars (3-3 in conference play) head north to Connecticut to take on the ever-challenging Huskies who’ve battled the elements and are 2-3 in the American. While it’s Cincinnati that sits atop the conference standings with a 4-2 record, the difference between first and last place is a mere two games, a difference that can be made up for with solid play this weekend.
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