Weekend Preview: 2015 Kickoff


No. 2 Virginia, 3, at East Carolina, 1

There are a select handful of pitchers in college baseball that give a team a feeling that no matter what this situation or conditions might be that they are still very much in the most capable of hands. It was 32 degrees at game time on Friday afternoon in Greenville, N.C., but simply by watching Virginia ace Nathan Kirby you would have thought it was 70 degrees in mid-April. Kirby was efficient, and at times dominant, in his first start of his highly anticipated junior season, setting the tone for what could be a special year for the 6-foot-2 lefthander.

Kirby looked very much the part of a future high first round draft choice on Friday, as he came out of the gate spitting fire, working at 92-94 mph with his fastball in the first inning against East Carolina. It cannot be understated just what a hostile environment the frigid temperatures created for this game, so Kirby coming out and showing mid-season form type velocity was a highly impressive feat in itself. Something that was very apparent watching Kirby in the early part of this game as well was what a difficult time righthanded hitters appear to have with his fastball. Besides his raw velocity there is deception in Kirby’s delivery as well as late running action on his fastball.

The fastball was not the story for Kirby on this day, however. The story of the day was Kirby’s changeup, a pitch he arguably used more effectively on this day than he has in any other game in his career. We’ve seen Kirby dominate with his breaking ball in the past, but his changeup was truly its equal or perhaps even better on Friday afternoon against the Pirates. In fact, he was so effective that he reminded many scouts in attendance of another Virginia ace of the past, Danny Hultzen.

Kirby’s first pitch of the game was a 94 mph fastball, but he followed that up with an 87 mph changeup, followed by another changeup at 86 mph. While it’s not an immense differential, it’s a pitch with very late dead fish action and he maintains his arm speed extremely well. Most importantly, his command of it was unwavering throughout this outing. In fact, the changeup was Kirby’s most reliable in his repertoire, as he did experienced stretches in this game where he had minor issues locating his fastball and slider.

Those momentary command lapses were just that, momentary. Kirby eventually settled around 91-93 mph with his fastball after running into some mechanical and command speed bumps in the second inning. By the fourth inning, Kirby was clicking on all cylinders. Through the early part of this outing, we saw a very heavy diet of changeups, but by the middle innings we were seeing the full array of Kirby’s advanced, deep arsenal. While Kirby has a slower curveball – he threw just a couple times in this outing around 78-80 mph – what he relied upon heavily was his sharp, above average 81-84 mph slider. It’s a slider with outstanding vertical depth, and when he’s on top consistently it’s a true swing-and-miss offering.

As previously noted, Kirby’s command, particularly of his breaking ball, was not always perfect in this game. Many of his early breaking pitches were left up in the zone, but as effectively as he picks at the outside corner and can backdoor the pitch against righty batters, coupled with the late action, it’s still a pitch he can miss bats with. Once he did fully find his command of it, his arsenal was simply too much for the ECU lineup to contend with.

There was an important moment in this game in an at-bat in which Kirby squared off against former high school teammate and ECU’s top power threat, Luke Lowery. Lowery is a hitter who has had success against Kirby in the past as well. While he ultimately pitched very carefully to the righty slugger, he did show he could get in under his hands with a darting 93 mph fastball. It’s a small moment that resulted in a foul ball, but considering the way Kirby likes to pound away at the outside corner with his changeup and breaking ball to righty batters, his ability to keep them honest inside is going to be a major key to his success at the next level.

And, on a day when it would have been very easy to Kirby to tire in the cold or simply take it slow on opening day, he only seemed to get stronger and more efficient in the latter innings of his outing. Allowing just three hits over seven scoreless innings, Kirby was still living at 91-93 mph in the final frame. And, he flashed a couple of his best sliders of the afternoon in these final innings as well, showing two-plane depth and excellent arm-side location. His changeup, which eventually settled at 84-86 mph, never wavered and he even threw a couple to lefty batters later in the outing. The worst ECU swings of the day were induced by the changeup, and with that said the lefty now has three pitches that he can consistently miss bats with. Kirby also tightened up a couple sliders late in the outing at 85-86 mph with closer to cutter type action.

Pitching the way Kirby did on Friday night is just what aces do. And, to a large contingent of scouts that were fully prepared to cut him significant slack had he pitched poorly in the conditions, his unflappability and technical, mature dismantling of the ECU lineup spoke volumes about the strength of his stock as a draft prospect. If you’d like to nitpick, Kirby’s glove side command and fastball feel will need to show up more consistently as the season wears on, and against more potent lineups, as he’ll need to avoid stretches of leaving his fastball and slider up in the zone the way he did this Friday.

But, small issues aside, Virginia has to come away from opening day thrilled with the sharpness they saw from their ace. Not only is he in top form, but with the further development of his changeup, he appears to have taken yet another step up from last season. This will not only have major implications for his draft stock, but for Virginia’s hopes of making a return trip to Omaha as well.

• The Cavaliers also were given the perfect opportunity to take their new closer, Josh Sborz, for a test drive in a tight spot in the bottom of the eighth inning. Sborz entered the game with one out and the bases loaded as Virginia clung to their small lead. The gritty ECU lineup didn’t make things easy on Sborz, but he proved to be up to the ask. Although he flashed a 91-93 mph fastball, Sborz fed the Pirates a steady diet of sliders. Sometimes shaped more like a cutter and other times shaped like a true two-plane slider, Sborz shows excellent command of this pitch and pounded away with it on Friday. Thrown at 83-86 mph, Sborz’ slider flashes plus action and he can throw it to both sides of the plate. He has swing-and-miss stuff and was able to prove right out of the gate that he is the right man for the Cavaliers’ closing job. He has big shoes to fill with Nick Howard’s departure to the pros, but this was a great way for Sborz to not just show his plus stuff but his intestinal fortitude as well.

• While it was obviously a day in which Virginia showcased what they do best, credit has to be given to East Carolina on opening day as well. Coming in short handed without projected Friday night starter Reid Love, the Pirates turned to sophomore lefty Evan Kruczynski. And, to his credit, the southpaw acquitted himself extremely well. Showing off an 85-88 mph fastball in the early part of his outing, Kruczynski topped at 89 mph and eventually settled around 86. He also showed solid feel for a 76-78 mph changeup. He has a projectable frame, as well as a quick, loose arm. And, as effectively as he kept Virginia hitters off balance on Friday, it would be safe to say that East Carolina has a keeper on their hands in the weekend rotation.