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Draft  | Rankings | 4/8/2005

High School vs College Draft Debate

Perfect Game Staff
Our partner Baseball America, the #1 source for minor league prospect coverage, recently released their list of organizations with the most Minor League talent. They have ranked the organizations 1 through 30. For the study below we used the top 15 ranked clubs top 10 prospects and the other 15 clubs top 2 prospects.

To subscribe to Baseball America's on line coverage go to:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/

The top half

1. Angels
2. Dodgers
3. Brewers
4. Twins
5. Braves
6. Rockies
7. Indians
8. A's
9. Devil Rays
10. Cubs
11. Mariners
12. White Sox
13. Diamondbacks
14. Marlins
15. Blue Jays

We thought we would take a close look at these clubs that seem to have the most talent. Where did these players come from? Because the list is part of Baseball America's "Subscriber Only" content, we have not identified the players by name. They are listed by rank within their organization, Position, where they signed out of, and what round they were selected.

We believe there are some very interesting revelations involved in this list.

For example, the number one ranked player in every organization reveals:
18 players signed out of high school
9 players signed out of a 4 year college
3 players were signed as Free Agents out of high school.

The totals based on our test study (chart below) showing total players listed...
65 signed out of high school
51 signed out of 4 year college
43 signed as Free Agents out of high school
8 signed out of Jucos.
Interesting was the fact not a single American player was listed as a Free Agent sign.

The 8th ranked Oakland A's, not surprisingly had, by far, the most 4 year college players listed among their top 10 prospects with 7, the other 3 being Free Agents. Oakland is the only club to not have a player on their top prospect list who signed out of high school.

The clubs with the most high school players in their top 10 prospects:
#5 ranked Braves with 8
#9 ranked Devil Rays with 8
#2 ranked Dodgers with 7
#3 ranked Brewers with 7.

The #1 ranked Angels had 4 high school players, 4 Free Agents, 1 Juco and 1 four year college player among their top 10 prospects.
The #2 ranked Dodgers were 7 high school, 2 Juco and 1 Free Agent.
The #3 Brewers were 7 high school players, 2 Free Agents and 1 four year college player.
The #4 Twins were 6 high school players, 3 four year college players and 1 Free Agent.
The #5 Braves were 8 high school players and 2 Free Agents.

Looking at the top 5 rated organizations the totals show:
32 - signed out of high school
10 - signed as Free Agents (all were Latin American players)
5 - signed out of a 4 year college
3 - signed out of Juco colleges

Again looking at the overall chart that includes 180 players, there's other tidbits of info.

For example of the 180 players listed, only 54 were selected in the 1st round.

Of the top 15 ranked clubs, 11 of their #1 prospects were drafted in the 1st round. Of the bottom 15 clubs, 8 of their #1 prospects were drafted in the 1st round.

Overall, 19 clubs had a first rounder as their #1 prospect, but 11 clubs did not!

33 of the total first round picks listed in this chart signed out of high school. 5 more were supplemental first round picks, for a total of 38 out of high school.

A total of 21 of the first round picks on the chart signed out of 4 year colleges. There were no supplemental 1st round picks listed from 4 year colleges.

21 of the top prospects listed were drafted in the 10th round or later. 7 of these signed out of 4 year colleges. 8 of the later picks signed out of high school. The other 6 signed out of Junior Colleges.

The vast majority of these prospects have come out of the past four drafts.
In 2004 1st round there were 13 high school players selected, 17 four year college players.
In 2003 1st round it was 12 high school players, 17 four year college players and 1 juco.
In 2002 1st round it was 16 high school players (2 went to college rather than signing), 13 four year college players and 1 juco.
In 2001 it was 12 high school players (2 went to college rather than signing), 18 four year college players.
Total for the four years, 53 high school players selected in the 1st round (4 went to college, 49 signed)
Total for the four years, 67 college players including two juco's were selected in the 1st round. (6 returned to college, 61 signed)

The general thought is that the high school player is a bigger risk than the proven college player. This chart reveals a closer look might be in order and those with the very strongest farm systems might know something.

Of the 49 total high school 1st rounders signed from the last 4 drafts, 33 appear on the top prospects list.

Of the 67 college first rounders in the past four years, only 21 appear on the top prospects list.

Over 67 % (more than 2 out of every 3) of the high school first round picks are listed among their clubs top prospects.

Only 31% (less than 1 out of every 3) of the college first round picks are listed among their clubs top prospects.

These figures don't go along with conventional wisdom. In fact, the figures show the complete opposite. Could it be true that the high school players are not only the highest reward, but also the "least" risk?

One thing to keep in mind is that several of the players drafted in the first round are already in the Big Leagues and don't appear in the prospects chart. It would take yet another study to find out just how many of those came from college or high school. Mark Prior comes to mind immediately as a guy getting to the Majors in a hurry. There are several others college players from the past 4 years who are already in the Major Leagues. Then again there are high schoolers like Jeremy Bonderman, BJ Upton, Scott Kazmir, David Wright, Carl Crawford, etc. who have made it as well.

We are not sure what this all means, but it is very interesting. One could go through the list and come up with all kinds of opinions. The results of our little study were somewhat surprising. Especially since the draft seems to be headed more and more towards the 4 year college player. Makes one wonder why, because in this small study it appears that most of the best prospects seem to be coming out of high school.

By no means are we suggesting players should sign out of high school. In fact, for most the college route is extremely beneficial. There's no right or wrong involved, it's just a chart!

Perhaps others will read the chart and see the results differently. For those that would like to get much more information we recommend you become a Baseball America on-line subscriber.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/

Any comments can be emailed to pgjerry@qwest.net

Top Organizations for Minor League Talent by Baseball America (Top 15 in order)
Information is subscription only so we did not use actual players names.

(Round selected in draft highlited area)

Angels (BA RANK #1)      
BA Rank POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 1B     1    
2 3B 2        
3 SS       FREE AGENT  
4 C     1 SUP    
5 1B       FREE AGENT  
6 SS     1    
7 RHP       FREE AGENT  
8 2B   10      
9 2B       FREE AGENT  
10 RHP     3    
           
 Dodgers (BA RANK #2)      
BA Rank POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 SS       FREE AGENT  
2 RHP     1    
3 RHP     6    
4 1B     1    
5 3B   39      
6 C   17      
7 LHP     1 SUP    
8 3B     1    
9 RHP     2    
10 LHP     2    
           
 Brewers (BA RANK #3)      
BA Rank POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 2B 1        
2 1B     1    
3 SS     2    
4 RHP       FREE AGENT  
5 RHP     1    
6 OF     11    
7 RHP     10    
8 OF     4    
9 2B       FREE AGENT  
10 OF     1    
           
 Twins (BA RANK #4)      
BA Rank POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 C     1    
2 OF     12    
3 RHP 2        
4 RHP     2    
5 LHP       FREE AGENT  
6 RHP     1    
7 RHP     2    
8 3B     1    
9 SS 13        
10 RHP 2        
           
 Braves (BA RANK #5)      
BA Rank POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 OF     1    
2 3B       FREE AGENT  
3 C     2    
4 RHP     4    
5 RHP     11    
6 LHP     3    
7 SS       FREE AGENT  
8 OF     1 SUP    
9 C     1 SUP    
10 RHP     3    
           
 Rockies (BA RANK #6)      
BA Rank POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 3B     1    
2 SS     1    
3 LHP 1        
4 RHP       FREE AGENT  
5 RHP       FREE AGENT  
6 3B 4        
7 OF 2        
8 OF 8        
9 2B     1    
10 SS 10        
           
 Indians (BA RANK #7)      
BA Rank POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 RHP     1    
2 1B 1        
3 OF       FREE AGENT  
4 OF       FREE AGENT  
5 LHP 1        
6 RHP       FREE AGENT  
7 RHP     10    
8 C 3        
9 RHP   25      
10 RHP     6    
           
 A's (BA RANK #8)      
BA Rank POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 RHP 1        
2 OF       FREE AGENT  
3 RHP 1        
4 1B 7        
5 RHP 1        
6 RHP       FREE AGENT  
7 OF 1        
8 SS 1        
9 C 2        
10 OF       FREE AGENT  
           
 Devil Rays (BA RANK #9)      
BA Rank POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 OF     1    
2 LHP     1    
3 OF     32    
4 RHP   10      
5 SS     2    
6 LHP     2    
7 OF     3    
8 RHP 13        
9 RHP     5    
10 1B     4    
           
 Cubs (BA RANK #10)      
BA Rank POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 1B     2    
2 OF       FREE AGENT  
3 OF     1    
4 RHP       FREE AGENT  
5 RHP     3    
6 LHP       FREE AGENT  
7 LHP 6        
8 RHP 11        
9 RHP 2        
10 OF 14        
           
 Mariners (BA RANK #11)      
BA Rank POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 RHP       FREE AGENT  
2 OF 2        
3 OF       FREE AGENT  
4 RHP     5    
5 SS     3    
6 LHP       FREE AGENT  
7 OF       FREE AGENT  
8 SS     1    
9 OF       FREE AGENT  
10 SS       FREE AGENT  
           
 White Sox (BA RANK #12)      
BA Rank POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 OF 1        
2 OF     2    
3 RHP   17      
4 3B 1        
5 RHP 8        
6 OF     16    
7 LHP     1 SUP    
8 C       FREE AGENT  
9 SS       FREE AGENT  
10 RHP     1    
           
 Diamondbacks (BA RANK #13)      
BA Rank POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 OF 1        
2 OF 1        
3 SS     1    
4 OF 2        
5 RHP       FREE AGENT  
6 C 2        
7 OF     4    
8 3B 2        
9 RHP       FREE AGENT  
10 LHP   3      
           
 Marlins (BA RANK #14)      
BA Rank POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 OF     1    
2 LHP     6    
3 RHP       FREE AGENT  
4 1B     2    
5 C 17        
6 OF 9        
7 LHP 1        
8 LHP 2        
9 SS     2    
10 RHP 3        
           
 Blue Jays (BA RANK #15)      
BA Rank POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 RHP     2    
2 SS 1        
3 C       FREE AGENT  
4 RHP       FREE AGENT  
5 LHP 1        
6 SS 1        
7 RHP     1    
8 LHP 1        
9 RHP 2        
10 LHP       FREE AGENT  
           
           
The other 15 MLB organizations listing the top two prospects
           
Pirates        
Name POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 LHP     20    
2 C     1    
           
Padres        
Name POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 2B     4    
2 OF       FREE AGENT  
           
Reds        
Name POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 RHP     1    
2 3B     9    
           
Phillies        
Name POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 1B 5        
2 RHP     1    
           
Mets        
Name POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 OF     1    
2 RHP       FREE AGENT  
           
Astros        
Name POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 2B 1        
2 RHP       FREE AGENT  
           
Nationals        
Name POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 LHP     3    
2 1B 3        
           
Giants        
Name POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 RHP     1    
2 RHP       FREE AGENT  
           
Cardinals        
Name POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 RHP 15        
2 RHP     1    
           
Yankees        
Name POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 3B     1    
2 2B       FREE AGENT  
           
Royals        
Name POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 3B     1    
2 RHP       FREE AGENT  
           
Red Sox        
Name POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  H.S. FREE AGENT  College Free Agent
1 SS       FREE AGENT  
2 OF     8    
           
Orioles        
Name POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 OF   1      
2 RHP     5    
           
Tigers        
Name POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 OF 3        
2 RHP 1        
           
Rangers        
Name POS 4 YR College JUCO High School  High School FA College FA
1 RHP 1        
2 LHP     1    
           
Totals   51 8 65 43 0

Most 4 Year College Players among Top 10 Prospects - Oakland Athletics - 7
Most High School Players among top 10 Prospects - Devil Rays - 8, Braves - 8
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