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College  | Story  | 5/4/2017

Field of 64: May 4

Mike Rooney     
 



Field of 64: April 20
Perfect Game Top 25 | College Spotlight | College Player Database

This past Monday was exactly four weeks from Selection Monday. With three weeks left in the regular season, let’s see what our projected Field of 64 looks like. As always, our focus will be on the 33 at-large bids and the 16 host sites.

Our format will be as follows: the 31 automatic bids, followed by the 33 at-large bids, followed by the 16 host sites including the Top 8 National Seeds. There will also be a list of “Bubble Out” teams followed by some commentary.

Note: the number listed after each team will be their RPI as of Sunday night of this week.


31 Automatic Bids by Conference


America East: Binghamton (63)
American Athletic: Houston (24)
Atlantic 10: VCU (112)
ACC: North Carolina (2)
Atlantic Sun: Jacksonville (76)

Big 12: Texas Tech (5)
Big East: Creighton (181)
Big South: Liberty (58)
Big Ten: Maryland (20)
Big West: Long Beach State (22)

Colonial: Northeastern (174)
Conference USA: Southern Miss (21)
Horizon: Illinois-Chicago (123)
Ivy: Yale (68)
MAAC: Fairfield (155)

MAC: Kent State (67)
MEAC: Norfolk State (242)
Missouri Valley: Missouri State (16)
Mountain West: New Mexico (36)
Northeast: Bryant (131)

Ohio Valley: Tennessee Tech (87)
Pac-12: Oregon State (1)
Patriot: Navy (182)
SEC: Kentucky (3)
Southern: Mercer (50)

Southland: McNeese State (27)
SWAC: Jackson State (210)
Summit: Oral Roberts (109)
Sun Belt: UT Arlington (94)
West Coast: BYU (56)

WAC: New Mexico State (133)


33 At-Large Bids


Clemson (4)
Florida (6)
Louisville (7)
Wake Forest (8)
TCU (9)

West Virginia (10)
Virginia (11)
Stanford (12)
Arizona (13)
Baylor (14)

LSU (15)
Arkansas (17)
Mississippi State (18)
Auburn (19)
Indiana (23)

South Florida (25)
Texas (26)
Vanderbilt (28)
Florida State (29)
Oklahoma (30)

Michigan (31)
South Carolina (32)
UCF (33)
Ole Miss (34)
Texas A&M (35)

Cal State Fullerton (39)
Southeastern Louisiana (40)
Charlotte (49)
St. John’s (37)
Old Dominion (38)

San Diego (54)
Washington (51)
Nebraska (43)


Bubble Out


South Alabama (42)
Louisiana Tech (41)
Loyola Marymount (65)
Connecticut (47)
Louisiana (55)
Dallas Baptist (48)
UCLA (60)
Oregon (61)
Florida Atlantic (59)
Rhode Island (45)

Bubble Out Tier 2

Coastal Carolina (64)
NC State (46)
Kansas (62)
Utah (52)
St. Mary’s (66)
Oklahoma State (53)
Florida Gulf Coast (69)
Seton Hall (70)

Bubble Out Interesting

Miami (72)
Minnesota (73)
Missouri (75)
California (76)
Gonzaga (77)


Host Sites
(Top 8 are the National Seeds)

1. Oregon State
2. North Carolina
3. Kentucky
4. Texas Tech
5. Florida
6. Clemson
7. Louisville
8. TCU

9. Wake Forest
10. Virginia
11. Stanford
12. Missouri State
13. Auburn
14. Maryland
15. West Virginia
16. Long Beach State


Random Thoughts


Auburn and Maryland came in as new Hosts this week but their candidacies are somewhat fragile. Both teams have lackluster RPI metrics (for the high bar of hosting) so narrative will become key. Maryland must win the Big Ten regular season title and Auburn must win the SEC West. They are trying to hold off three schools that are incredible projected host sites as well: LSU, Mississippi State and Arkansas.

Speaking of narrative, winning your regular season league championship can have a big impact on the committee and here are four leagues where that distinction could really matter:

• The SEC currently has seven teams within one game of first place
• The WCC where BYU, San Diego, Loyola Marymount and Gonzaga all sit in the bubble range
• The AAC where five teams are currently tied for first place
• Conference USA where Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech, Charlotte and Florida Atlantic all sit on or near the bubble

We always worry about teams with sub .500 records in conference play as that narrative can work against you. Here are schools who are currently in our field but also currently under .500 in league play: Arizona, Baylor, Florida State and South Carolina.

And here are four conference tournament scenarios that all teams bubblicious will be lighting candles for:

• Missouri State must win the MVC
• New Mexico must win the MWC
• Mercer must win The SoCon
• McNeese State must win the Southland. 

The lines of demarcation on the bubble are incredibly thin. In this round, I came down to 16 teams for the final seven spots. Every game matters.