One of the most apparent weaknesses in the 2009 draft class is the lack of impact bats. The 2005 draft class may set the standard for all other classes to live up to, with impact sluggers such as Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Cameron Maybin and Jay Bruce all going among the top 12 overall picks. There is no Pedro Alvarez, Eric Hosmer or Buster Posey available as there were a year ago, a year in which seven first basemen were selected in the first round.
Look no further than PG Crosschecker’s top prospect list to get a sense of where and how the talent stacks up. Seven of the top 10 and 17 of the top 25 prospects are pitchers. Fortunately the pitching crop is deep, making it similar to the 2004 class when eight of the top 10 overall picks were pitchers, with 19 pitchers overall going in the first round.
It doesn’t help that Grant Green, who entered the spring as one of the consensus top prospects available, is having a down year after drawing comparisons to Evan Longoria and Troy Tulowitzki after an impressive showing on the Cape last summer. Other shortstops such as D.J. LeMahieu and Ryan Jackson have also struggled a little at the plate (in LeMahieu’s case, he hasn’t shown much power after getting off to a fast start). Kentrail Davis, one of the best hitters in this year’s class, hasn’t hit as well as he did during his freshman year, leading many to believe that he, and LeMahieu, may opt to return for their junior seasons at Tennessee and LSU respectively.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t any impact bats to be had, teams might just have to reach a little to make sure they get one early if such a player is high on their wish list.
Dustin Ackley (North Carolina) has continued to hit and has improved his power production. As I profiled last week, there is some debate as to how much power he will hit for, but he still has the potential as a middle-of-the-order bat.
Donovan Tate (Cartersville, GA) also hasn’t missed a beat, and like Ackley he is also among the players in the conversation for the top three to five overall selections. Tate offers the rare blend of game-changing tools that scouts get excited about, and as Jim Ecker pointed out a week ago, it may not be long before Tate is showing those tools at the big-league level.
After Ackley and Tate however, opinions are split as to who is the next-best slugger. I’m not going to try and bring up every promising young hitter, but I am going to bring up some names that are making the most noise to be taken in the top two to three rounds of this year’s draft.
It’s hard not to like Bobby Borchering (Bishop Vero HS, FL) when he takes the baseball field. He looks like he’s a man among boys, built tall and muscular, and with his switch hitting approach he has drawn a few Chipper Jones comparisons. He’s not the same kind of athlete as Jones, and may have to slide across the diamond from third to first some day, but he could be hitting in the middle of a big league team’s lineup when that happens.
Matt Davidson (Yucaipa, CA) also receives a fair amount of skepticism as to whether or not he will be able to stick at the hot corner, but his potential with the bat, particularly his power stroke, are undeniable.
Everett Williams (Austin, TX) isn’t quite the slugger that Borchering and Davidson are, but he has a better collection of tools, with an exciting blend of speed and power. His name is starting to creep into that late-first/sandwich round area, and even if he doesn’t go that high he should be a solid second rounder.
LeVon Washington (Gainesville, FL) is a similar player to Williams, but doesn’t have the same kind of pop. He does have blinding speed, and may be the fastest player available in the draft.
Rocky Mount, North Carolina’s Brian Goodwin probably has the best chance to go in the first round among the speedy, toolsy prep outfielders. He has gap power and speed to become a threat on the basepaths while also possessing the natural instincts to gracefully track down fly balls in center.
No hitter has risen as far and as fast as Mike Trout (Millville, NJ). A toolsy two-way talent, Trout’s future lies in centerfield, where his speed and arm could make him a gold glover. He continues to improve at the plate, and may be putting himself in similar conversations that Donovan Tate has been in for over a year as a rare and coveted impact five-tool talent.
Fellow prep outfielder Jake Marisnick (Riverside, CA) is a tall, rangy and athletic outfielder that also has an exciting blend of tools. His tool-set is highlighted by his power potential and arm strength, making him a natural fit for right field at the next level.
The prep class also offers an impressive glut of catchers to choose from, a group I have already profiled in detail before, although that class became weakened by one when Luke Bailey (LaGrange, GA) was lost for the year with Tommy John surgery on his horizon.
I have also profiled the prep middle infield class in a previous column, but three names that are starting to put themselves in the best position to be taken early are Jiovanni Mier (Pomona, CA), Daniel Fields (Detroit, MI) and Jason Thompson (Germantown, TN). Mier is known more for his glove than for his bat, while Thompson may have to slide across to third base at the next level.
The same is true for Nolan Arenado (Lake Forrest, CA), who is drawing interest from a few teams with picks in the sandwich round. His improved power at the plate against some of the better pitchers in the nation is making more and more believers of the Southern California scouting contingent.
On the California college circuit, Sacramento State’s Tim Wheeler, Loyola Marymount’s Angelo Songco and Fresno State’s Tommy Mendonca are all enjoying big years at the plate.
Wheeler could sneak into the late first or sandwich round with an interesting blend of power and speed. He has reached double digits in home runs, doubles and stolen bases this spring, after he firmly put himself on follow lists last summer with an all-star performance in the Cape Cod League.
Songco has good, not great tools across the boards. He hits for contact and has a very disciplined eye at the plate to go along with good, not great speed.
Mendonca is a gold glove candidate at third base, a player that makes the position look so easy with good lateral quickness, natural instincts and a strong arm. He has a powerful left-handed bat as well, already reaching 20 home runs this spring after he was named the Most Outstanding Player at the College World Series last June. His big swing is a concern, as he has 50 strikeouts already this year, although down from the 97 whiffs he recorded a year ago.
Marc Krauss (Ohio) isn’t going to win any awards for his body type, but he is as sure of a hitter there is at the college level. After hitting .349 with 18 home runs between his freshman and sophomore years, Krauss is hitting better than .400 this year with 20 homers, proving that his 6’3”, 225 pound frame is capable of him becoming more than just a gap-to-gap average hitter.
Jared Mitchell (LSU) and Brett Jackson (California) are similar players in that they have the skill-sets to become dynamic leadoff hitters, but also have enough power to make an impact lower in the lineup. Both swing and miss more than they should, but both have tools that are nearly unrivaled in this year’s draft class.
Notre Dame’s A.J. Pollock doesn’t have the tools that Mitchell and Jackson do, but he has much better plate discipline and a better overall sense for playing the game. He does have some pop, but he is more of a doubles, high average hitter that knows how to get on base and swipe a few bags. He currently plays center-field, but has played the infield in the past, and a team might give him a chance to play third base at the professional level.
The big boppers come in the form of Louisville’s Chris Dominguez and Georgia’s Rich Poythress. Both have played third base (Dominguez still does), but both are likely to settle in at first base down the road (Dominguez could play right field as he is a good overall athlete with a cannon for an arm).
Poythress has followed up his break-out sophomore year with an even better junior campaign playing out of the shadow of Gordon Beckham, a first-round pick from a year ago. Poythress is among the national leaders in nearly every notable run-producing offensive category, highlighted by his .406 batting average, 21 homers and 75 RBI.
Dominguez has had a very successful overall college career, with 52 career home runs (and counting). His big swing has led to some equally big strikeout totals, so he’ll need to make the necessary adjustments at the next level to manage the strike zone better without suffering a drop-off in power.
College catchers Tony Sanchez (Boston College) and Josh Phegley (Indiana) were profiled with the talented crop of prep backstops in the previous feature I mentioned above, and both are enjoying big years at the plate with 14 and 13 home runs respectively. As of right now it seems as though both are on the outside of the first round, but the constant demand for catchers could allow one or both to sneak up a little higher than where they may be projected to go.
One interesting similarity among this crop is the number of left-handed hitters. Ackley, Davis, Williams, Washington, Goodwin, Fields, Wheeler, Songco, Mendonca, Krauss, Mitchell and Jackson all swing the bat left-handed, while Borchering, Trout and Thompson are switch hitters. Left-handed bats, and switch hitters, are always at a premium, which definitely helps the case of this group of players.
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.