Two years ago I wrote a similar column focusing on the success of Matt Wieters during his three years in college and the summers in between.  Wieters, like Dustin Ackley, was considered one of the top draft-eligible hitters as the 2007 draft approached, and was among the candidates on the Rays’ short-list to go first overall the year they took David Price with the top pick.

Wieters received some criticism that he hadn’t really gotten better during his three years in school, and that his power numbers didn’t really develop from one year to the next.  I argued at that point in time that his numbers really didn’t have anywhere to go, since he was so good upon arriving at Georgia Tech, and his numbers have continued to shine during his professional career where he, and David Price, are considered the game’s two best prospects.

Similar to Wieters, Dustin Ackley has been considered one of the top prospects for this year’s draft since his sensational freshman season at North Carolina, and both of their prospect statuses took off with an impressive showing in the Cape Cod League the summer before their junior years in college.

Ackley has hit .400 at every stop he has made during his college career (hitting a shade below that mark so far this year), including his brief stint on the Cape last summer before he had Tommy John surgery to repair an ailing throwing shoulder. That surgery has delayed Ackley’s anticipated placement in the outfield, as he’s too good of an athlete and runs too well to play first base. However, until scouts gets to see him play out there, they can only guess that his athleticism would make him a good fit.

And that may not matter much since it is his bat that gives him his value. He is a pure hitter with a natural left-handed stroke. He works pitchers like a seasoned veteran, regularly going deep into counts, drawing walks and showing the ability to be a pretty good situational hitter when his team needs to manufacture a run.

Ackley is such a good, natural and disciplined hitter that his bat rarely leaves his shoulder (he hardly even flinches), and when he forces pitchers to throw hittable strikes, he rarely misses the ball.

He does have good gap power, and I could see him hitting 35-40 doubles on an annual basis at the next level, but there is some concern about how many home runs he projects to hit. It’s clear he has good bat speed with strong wrists and forearms, but he has more of a line-drive swing than one made for 30-plus home runs.  His slender body type doesn’t lead you to believe that he is simply going to muscle balls out of the park.

Here are his numbers during his first two years in college, the numbers he posted last summer during a brief stint on the Cape, and the numbers for his junior year through last weekend:

2007:  .402/.448/.591, 20 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 30:21 BB:K ratio in 296 at-bats

2008:  .417/.503/.597, 21 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 53:27 BB:K ratio in 278 at-bats

2008 (Cape):  .415/.586/.707, 4 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 16:10 BB:K ratio in 42 at-bats

2009:  .384/.493/.695, 10 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 35:22 BB:K ratio in 177 at-bats

It’s important to note as well that he isn’t getting much to hit this spring.  While there are plenty of other lethal bats in the Tar Heels lineup (Kyle Seager, Mark Fleury), Ackley is constantly getting worked around, yet he continues to make the most of his plate appearances, and he isn’t shy about drawing a walk.

As you can tell by the numbers alone, he is consistent, thanks to a mature and disciplined approach at the plate.  Such hitters in my opinion usually are able to avoid prolonged slumps since they are open to drawing walks, use the whole field and do the little things even when they aren’t hitting the ball as well as they could be.  The conversion to the professional game also doesn’t seem to be as difficult for such hitters, a notion that could be supported by Wieters’ success.

And even if he doesn’t develop more in-game power, there is nothing wrong with any player at any position hitting 20 home runs as long as he can hit 35 or more doubles (John Olerud had a very successful career doing exactly that) while driving in and scoring more than one’s fair share of runs.  The argument has become more scrutinized since we’re trying to project a player that is expected to not only be one of the first players selected in this year’s draft, but also could prove to be a relatively difficult sign since he is advised by Scott Boras.

Todd Helton had similar questions surrounding him at a similar stage in his career. While his career most likely has been aided playing half of his games at Coors Field, if Ackley hits anything like Todd Helton has, people will wonder why he wasn’t the first overall pick (that is, if he isn’t).

Darin Erstad may also be a similar player, not necessarily for how his career turned out, but for how he projected at the same point in his career (and for his body type). He was the first overall pick in the 1995 draft, and he, like Ackley, was an interesting player in that he could play center-field as well as first base, with good overall speed, athleticism and a solid approach at the plate. While he has enjoyed a long and successful career, some could argue that he didn’t live up to the expectations that are connected to such a premium draft pick.

Another first overall draft pick (2000), Adrian Gonzalez, may be yet another good comparison.  He was somewhat of a controversial draftee given where he was selected, but no one ever doubted his ability to hit.  Like Ackley, some questioned how much power would be in Gonzalez’ swing.  Of course now Gonzalez is one of the better (and underrated, in my humble opinion) run producers in the game of baseball today, hitting half of his games at a ballpark that suppresses power numbers (PETCO Park).

Of course for any player you could line up a similar series of comparisons, good and bad.  My point in doing so with Ackley is to point out that good natural hitters often continue to be good natural hitters.  There is a certain amount of risk involved if you think you’re going to be adding the next Mark Teixeira to your organization, but power is often one of the last tools to develop, especially if all of the other hitting tools are in place, and as shown by the numbers above, Ackley’s power has already improved over the last calendar year.

Also as noted above, he has the added value of athleticism, in that there is still speculation that he could handle center-field.  Even if he can’t, left or right field are definite possibilities.  Third base might even be an option if his arm strength were to return to where it used to be.  His foot-speed is too good for him not to be given the opportunity to play the outfield at some point during his professional career, although there would be no shame if he stayed at first base, where he projects to be an above average defensive player.

Passing on Ackley due to possible signability concerns is a different argument altogether, but teams will be making a mistake if Ackley’s perceived lack of power is the reason they pursue a different direction on draft day.

The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA.  Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.