Is San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg the best pitching prospect ever?
That certainly seems to be a defensible position as of mid-April, approximately eight weeks before this year’s draft. His 98-102 mph fastball and his assault on the NCAA strikeout records have put him in an entirely different arena than any other college junior in the country—not only in terms of talent, but for the buzz and conversation he creates.
But if you think that the buzz is strong now, just wait until this summer—particularly if there is any truth to the frequently-circulated rumor that Strasburg and his advisor, Scott Boras, will be asking for an unprecedented $50-million contract. Sources indicate that the Washington Nationals, holders of the first overall pick, have two lists—one with Strasburg’s name alone on it, and the other they refer to as the $50 million list, meaning those they would consider picking if that is indeed the figure.
PG Crosschecker is taking a mid-season look this week at the top players in each college class, and our focus today is on the junior class. We looked at the top freshmen on Tuesday and the top sophomores on Wednesday, and we’ll conclude the four-part series with an overview of the top seniors on Friday. Our primary consideration is simply identifying those players at each position that are performing the best to this point of the college season.
We’ve also identified on the accompanying list the top 10 performers overall in this year’s junior class. Additionally, we’ve updated our take on the top 10 prospects in the junior class for the 2009 draft. But no matter how we look at the junior class, Strasburg ranks No. 1. He has been that dominant.
What’s easy to forget, though, is that the 6-foot-5, 225-pound Strasburg was a well-known, but undrafted high-school senior three years ago, whose extra weight, attitude and questionable pitching mechanics kept scouts from being drawn in by his then-low 90s fastball.
He made his mark as a closer as a freshman at San Diego State, but has been thoroughly dominant as a starter the last two seasons for the Aztecs. In addition to his 23-strikeout game a year ago, he has been on such a hectic strikeout pace this spring that he has the NCAA record for most single-season strikeouts (234) in sight, along with the mark for strikeouts per nine innings (16.8).
Impressive as Strasburg has been, The Strasburg Watch has made it too easy to overlook a number of other juniors who have had strong springs, and have solidified or significantly improved their draft status, or have just dominated college baseball.
Except for one Big 12 Conference start against Oklahoma State that was delayed for two days because of rain and snow and led him to give up seven runs in two innings, Missouri righthander Kyle Gibson has been outstanding, too. He has solidified his stature with many teams as the top junior prospect in the “non-Strasburg” category. Gibson’s command has been superb and he has two plus secondary pitches, in his slider and changeup, to go with a 90-94 mph fastball.
In any other year, Kansas State fourth-year junior righthander A.J. Morris might be the frontrunner in any college player-of-the-year discussions. He has gone 9-0, 1.19 and has been chiefly responsible for the surprising success of the Wildcats, who are 26-9. After going undrafted a year ago, Morris’ fastball jumped 5-7 mph last summer in the West Coast League after he made adjustments to his delivery. His slider has become a plus pitch as well.
It is impossible to ignore Arizona State’s trio of lefthander Josh Spence, righthander Mike Leake and outfielder Jason Kipnis in the process. They hold down the Nos. 4-6 spots on our list of the top performers thus far in the junior class.
In truth, the rebuilding Sun Devils are a good team without these three players—but probably not a top 25 team nationally. But they are virtually unbeatable with the 1-2 punch of Spence and Leake on the mound. Only Georgia’s slugging first baseman Rich Poythress can legitimately claim that he’s having a stronger season at the plate than Kipnis, a fourth-round pick as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2008.
Poythress hit .375-15-75 as a sophomore, including .409-0-8 in the College World Series, so his ascension into potential first-round status shouldn’t come as that big of a surprise. Two college juniors who have come from back in the pack to put themselves strongly into first-round consideration, though, are Kentucky lefthander James Paxton and UC Riverside righthander Joe Kelly. It’s possible that they may even land in the top half of the first round as both have been clocked upwards of 95-96 mph this spring.
Paxton’s overall numbers (4-2, along with an unsightly 6.07 ERA) are skewed by a two- inning/nine-run outing (in an eventual 20-19 slugfest loss to South Carolina, which started another potential first-rounder, Sam Dyson, in the same game) and an ongoing battle with tendonitis in his knee. But Paxton, a Canadian, has shown scouts a consistent plus fastball that has topped out at 97 mph and a knee-buckling, sweeping slider. Paxton was viewed as more of a 4th-6th round talent before scouts saw a big jump in his velocity this spring.
Scouts had no idea what to expect from Kelly, though, who struggled with shoulder problems and significant command issues as a sophomore—both at UC Riverside and in the Cape Cod League. What they’ve seen from Kelly this spring is a steady mid-90s fastball that has topped out at 99 mph. Kelly had thrown only 16 innings in his closer’s role through mid-April, which will likely complicate draft discussions for many teams.
The player who has been an enigma for scouting directors at the top of the draft is Southern California shortstop Grant Green. He hit .390-9-46 last year for the Trojans, then followed up with an excellent summer in the Cape (.348-6-21). By all indications, he looked like the next coming of Troy Tulowitzki and Evan Longoria in the line of premium middle infielders from southern California.
But Green’s power (.376-2-17) has been in remission all spring for an underachieving Trojans team, and scouts say his arm strength at shortstop has gone in the same direction. Green is still viewed as a consensus top-10 pick, but not the top-5 lock he was entering the 2009 college season.
Here’s our take on the Top 10 players overall in the junior class at the midseason point of the 2009 season: