Updated March 25, 2013
See also: Allan Simpson's Top 300 2013 Draft Prospects | Allan Simpson's 2013 State-By-State Lists
For
the third time in five years, the team that held the No. 1 pick from
the previous year will once again select first overall. The Houston
Astros, who took 2011 Perfect Game All-American Carlos Correa with
the No. 1 pick in 2012, finished the season with a 55-107 record (.340 winning percentage),
worst in all of baseball, and will pick first at the beginning of
each of every round in the 2013 draft.
The
Washington Nationals and Tampa Bay Rays had back-to-back No. 1
overall picks in 2009-10 and 2007-08, using three of those four selections to
take several of the game's brightest young stars in David Price
(2007), Stephen Strasburg (2009) and Bryce Harper (2010).
Due
to the rules of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, in which
there were several changes made to the overall draft logistics, few
knew how the 2012 draft would shake out. MLB's intent in the new
draft rules, with the biggest change coming in the form of draft
pools assigned to each team based on the number and placement of
their picks, was to keep signing bonuses down while getting the
players to sign more quickly.
Mission
accomplish on both accounts.
As
Allan Simpson detailed in a feature a few days after the 2012 signing deadline,
a record number of players that were selected in the top 10 rounds of
the draft signed, as well for the highest percentage of players that
signed among those taken overall. The top four players selected
(Correa, Byron Buxton, Mike Zunino and Kevin Gausman) were the only picks that received signing bonuses of $4 million or more.
The
Astros showed creativity with the first overall pick, using only $4.8
million of their allotted $7.2 million pool to sign Correa. The $2.5
million the team used to sign PG All-American Lance McCullers in the
supplemental first round allowed the team to sign two players for
only $100,000 more than the draft pool number assigned to the first
overall pick. That allowed them to go greatly over slot for their
fourth round pick, another PG All-American in Rio Ruiz, who signed
for $1.85 million.
The
Pittsburgh Pirates, who selected first overall the previous year,
looked as though they were prepared to add yet another dominant arm
to their system when Stanford ace Mark Appel fell to the eighth
overall pick. Appel opted not to sign after the Pirates offered him
the highest bonus value without being penalized under the new system,
$3.8 million.
Since
Appel did not sign the Pirates will be awarded the ninth overall pick in the 2013 draft as compensation. As part of the new draft rules, this selection is now protected through 2013 as well should the Pirates not be able to sign whoever they take with this pick.
For
as many changes we saw to the draft a year ago, there are still more
on the horizon.
A
competitive balance lottery was conducted the Wednesday after the
signing deadline in which 12 teams were awarded additional, early
picks. The lottery was designed to give teams with the smallest
market and smallest revenues an advantage in the draft, resulting in
a pool of 14 teams that were eligible to be awarded a pick.
The first round of this lottery, called Round A, which will result in
picks taking place after the first round of the draft, will go to the
Royals, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds and Tigers.
The
second round of the lottery, Round B, will occur after the second
round. Those picks in order will go to the Padres, Indians, Rockies,
Athletics, Brewers and Marlins.
Of the teams eligible, only the Cardinals and Rays did not receive a pick in the lottery.
(The
Marlins and Tigers swapped their competitive balance picks as part of
the trade that sent Anibal Snachez and Omar Infante to Detroit with
PG All-American Jacob Turner going to Miami.)
Yet
another wrinkle to the 2013 draft is the free agent compensation
process.
No
longer will Type A, B and C free agents be determined. The pool of
players that will garner their teams a compensatory selection will be
drastically reduced.
• The
player must have been on the team's opening day roster and spent the
entire year with the same team.
• The
team losing the player must make a qualifying offer to the player
within five days of the World Series (the players have seven days to accept).
• Teams
and players cannot agree to not make a qualifying offer and/or agree
to decline any such offer prior to the offer taking place.
• That
offer must be worth an average of the top 125 player contracts from
the 2012 season, which is expected to be in the $13.3-$13.4 million
range.
After
the Brewers traded Zack Greinke to the Angels mid-season, making him
ineligible for free agent compensation, Josh Hamilton could be the
only projected free agent that will garner a compensatory draft pick.
In
addition, the teams that lose players eligible for compensation only
receive a selection in the supplemental first round. The team that
signs a player eligible for compensation simply forfeits their first selection (or second selection for teams that finish the season with one of the 10 worst records). That pick is not awarded to the team that loses the free agent, with all of
the teams/picks moving up a spot.
The
free agent compensatory selections will be awarded in reverse order
of the team's winning percetage from the previous season. In years where there are multiple free agents requiring compensation, teams
that lose multiple free agents will be awarded picks in succession.
As touched upon above, the
teams with the 10 worst records from the previous season cannot lose
their first pick, a change from the previous rule in which the top
picks of the 15 worst teams were protected.
Also,
all picks, with the exception of those awarded to teams for not signing picks in previous years, are eligible to be surrendered, including free agent compensatory selections and those awarded through the competitive
balance lottery. In other words, if one of the teams that finished
among the top 20 teams in all of MLB the previous year signs a free
agent eligible for compensation, they lose their first pick, almost regardless of how that pick was procured.
EDIT 12/14/12: As an example, if the Braves sign another free agent that would garner draft pick compensation in addition to B.J. Upton, they surrender their first-round pick, the 28th overall selection, as well as the first-round compensatory pick they would have received for Michael Bourn (assuming he signs with another team).
EDIT 11/9/12: It turns out there will be eight free agents that could effect the draft order. Michael Bourn (Braves), Josh Hamilton (Rangers), Hiroki Kuroda (Yankees), Adam LaRoche (Nationals), Kyle Lohse (Cardinals), Rafael Soriano (Yankees), Nick Swisher (Yankees) and B.J. Upton (Rays) were all offered, and subsequently declined a qualifying offer. The value of the qualifying offer turned out to be $13.3 million as previously expected.
2012 draft indicator
While there won't be nearly as many compensation picks in the 2013 draft due to the revised rules, if the 2012 draft is any indication, expect teams toward the top of the draft to follow in the Astros footsteps. That of course includes the Astros themselves, although they don't have to worry about signing any additional, early picks. However, saving a big chunk of money off of the projected value of the No. 1 overall selection and combining that with their overall bonus pool, teams can continue to be extremely creative in the players they select and sign after the first round.
This may be even more evident from teams that have both an early pick in the overall draft and another thanks to the competitive balance lottery system. It should be noted that only the Royals have a pick among the top 10 overall selections as well as a pick in Round A (the first pick) of the lottery compensatory round.
The Pirates have the ninth and 14th overall picks of the draft, giving them a large signing bonus pool to add more key cogs to an improving system. They also owned the second pick in Round A due to the competitive draft lottery, but they traded that pick to the Marlins as part of the deal that sent Gaby Sanchez to Pittsburgh.
Outside of Mark Appel and two-sport PG All-American standouts Kohl Stewart and Cord Sandberg, it's far too early to guess who might pose signability concerns.
Orioles snap streak
The Baltimore Orioles, with the 24th overall pick in the first round enjoyed the biggest drop (drop being used in a positive sense since it reflects the team's success on the field) in the draft (20 spots) thanks to their breakout season in which they reversed their 69-93 2011 record with a 93-69 mark this year. The team had selected among the top five overall picks the last five years (2007-2012) and picked among the top 10 overall picks in 11 of the last 12 years.
While the Pittsburgh Pirates suffered their 20th straight losing season, they did snap their own streak of owning a pick in the top 10 selections (outside of their compensatory selection for not signing Mark Appel) by selecting 14th. The last time they owned a pick outside of the top 10 they took Andrew McCutchen 11th overall in 2005.
The Cincinnati Reds dropped 16 spots, from 14 to 30.
The Oakland Athletics, who finished the season in dramatic fashion, dropped 15 slots, from the 11th overall pick in 2012 to the 26th pick next year.
After selecting 16th a year ago, the Washington Nationals finished with the best record in baseball, and will own the last selection in the first round, 31st overall.
The Boston Red Sox consolation prize for their frustrating season is the seventh overall pick in the 2013 draft. That will be the Red Sox highest selection since they took Trot Nixon at the same slot in 1993, and marks a 17 pick jump from the 2012 draft.
In 2013 the Philadelphia Phillies will select 16th overall in the first round, moving up 15 spots in the raw draft order after finishing the 2011 season with the best record in baseball.
Despite finishing the season with respectable records, both the Brewers and Diamondbacks moved up 11 slots.
2013 Raw Draft Order
Here is how the raw order of the first round of the 2013 draft will stack up, with the order of the competitive balance lottery and unsigned 2012 picks to follow.