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College  | Story | 6/8/2011

Chapel Hill SR: Who has the edge?

Kendall Rogers

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SUPER REGIONAL COVERAGE: SCHEDULE/RESULTS | PAIRINGS | MESSAGE BOARDS


After the many miles traveled by some teams last week, the Road to Omaha either continues or comes to an abrupt halt for 16 teams this weekend.

With the NCAA Super Regionals around the corner, we take an in-depth look at how each team stacks up against the other.

In our last NCAA Super Regional preview, we took an inside look at the Gainesville Super Regional between Mississippi State and Florida. Now it's time to take an in-depth look at the Chapel Hill Super Regional, which features a pair of hot teams in Stanford (35-20) and North Carolina (48-14).

For Stanford, the biggest key to the weekend is it must get solid starts from Appel, Pries and Sandbrink. All three threw well in the Fullerton Regional last weekend, but this is a team that isn't gifted with a lot of bullpen depth outside of stud lefty Chris Reed. Therefore, starters going deep into games is a huge need for the Cardinal. Stanford also needs to get on a roll offensively. They did a tremendous job of hitting last weekend in NCAA Regional play, so it'll be interesting to see if that translates to more success this weekend.

North Carolina is at home and has a lot of momentum after finishing the regular season on such a high note and playing extremely well in the Chapel Hill Regional last weekend. The Tar Heels need to get production from the bottom half of their lineup to take care of business this weekend. The starting rotation outside of Patrick Johnson also must be solid. It'll be interesting to see how freshman Kent Emanuel throws considering this is his first experience in an NCAA Super Regional.

UNC should be headed back to Omaha if the series goes as expected.

WHO HAS THE EDGE? Austin | Charlottesville | Columbia | Gainesville | Nashville | Santa Clara | Tallahassee

Chapel Hill Super Regional: Who has the edge?
Starting pitching

There's not a category tougher to choose than this one. Both teams have very solid weekend rotations, but Stanford gets an extremely slight edge for having a bit more overall consistency 1-2-3. The Tar Heels have a solid rotation entering the weekend, which includes surprising senior Patrick Johnson, freshman Kent Emanuel and Chris Munnelly. Johnson is having a campaign to remember, sitting at 12-1 with a 2.36 ERA in 99 1/3 innings. He also has struck out 113 and walked 29 and teams are hitting him at a .210 clip. Emanuel has blossomed in his first year and has a 2.62 ERA in 89 1/3 innings. Teams are hitting him at just a .257 clip. Munnelly, meanwhile, is by far the most hittable starter on this staff, sitting at a 4.11 ERA in 70 innings. Teams are hitting .267 off him ... When he's clicking on all cylinders, Stanford has a truly special prize pitcher in right-hander Mark Appel, potentially the top pick in the 2012 MLB draft. Appel has a 3.02 ERA in 104 1/3 innings. He also has struck out 83 and walked 26 and teams are hitting him at a .276 clip. Other weekend starters for the Cardinal include Jordan Pries, who was fantastic against Cal State Fullerton last week, and veteran Danny Sandbrink. Pries has started 15 games and has a 3.24 ERA in 94 1/3 innings. He has struck out 74 and walked 30 and teams are hitting .263 against him. Sandbrink, meanwhile, has plenty of experience having started a game in Omaha as a freshman few years ago. He has a 3.39 ERA in 61 innings and teams are hitting him at a .237 clip.
Bullpen

If there's a substantial advantage in one direction this weekend, it's in this category in favor of North Carolina. The Cardinal has an outstanding ace reliever in left-handed pitcher Chris Reed, who has a 2.54 ERA in 49 2/3 innings with nine saves. However, the Cardinal simply don't have the depth the Tar Heels possess with other arms to watch including A.J. Vanegas and Brian Busick, who tossed two shutout innings in the Fullerton Regional last weekend ... The Tar Heels are led in the bullpen by Tate Parrish, Greg Holt and R.C. Orlan, who each have made 30 appearances. The trio has ERAs of 2.35, 3.09 and 3.77, respectively. Also keep an eye on Andrew Smith, Shane Taylor and Michael Morin. Smith has a 2.77 ERA in 26 innings, Taylor has a 3.00 ERA in 36 innings and Morin has a 4.80 ERA in 60 innings with eight saves and teams hitting him at a .262 clip. One premier ACC coach told me earlier this season the Tar Heels had the arms in the bullpen to match up with anyone in the country.
Offense

Both Stanford and North Carolina have the ability to put up runs in a hurry, but both teams also have the ability to go into lulls at times. Both teams have played a very solid brand of baseball at the plate the past few weeks, so more runs than expected could be scored this weekend. The Cardinal has the better offensive lineup entering the weekend with a .302 batting average. Stephen Piscotty, Tyler Gaffney, Brian Ragira, Austin Wilson and Lonnie Kauppila lead the way. Piscotty leads the way with a .370 average, three home runs and 40 RBIs. He also has a solid .430 on-base percentage. Gaffney, a speedster, is hitting .323 with three home runs and 34 RBIs, Ragira is hitting .320 with four home runs and 43 RBIs and Wilson is hitting .309 with five home runs and 27 RBIs. Kauppila, meanwhile, also is a member of Stanford's talented freshman class and is hitting .303 with a home run and 25 RBIs ... The bottom of North Carolina's lineup certainly leaves something to be desired, but they have some solid hitters. Freshman third baseman Colin Moran is having a fantastic campaign and leads the way with a .335 average, 19 doubles, nine home runs and 69 RBIs. He also has a solid .443 OBP. Second baseman Tommy Coyle is hitting .322 with a .412 OBP and is 18-for-24 in stolen bases, while Jessie Wierzbicki is hitting .301 with seven home runs and 39 RBIs. Also keep an eye on stud prospect Levi Michael, who's hitting .297 with five home runs and 48 RBIs. Michael also has a team-best .444 OBP and is 15-for-16 in stolen bases.
Defense

Stanford has several solid defenders this season, especially freshman Lonnie Kauppila, who has a fabulous .992 fielding percentage at second base. North Carolina, though, has the edge in this category. The Tar Heels enter the weekend with a fabulous .979 fielding percentage. Catcher Jacob Stallings has a .990 fielding percentage, first baseman Jesse Wierzbicki has a .996 fielding percentage and third baseman Colin Moran has a .939 fielding percentage. In the middle, the Tar Heels have a solid duo with shortstop Levi Michael and second baseman Tommy Coyle leading the way. Michael is one of the nation's best defenders with a .968 fielding percentage while Coyle is sitting at .961. The Heels also have a solid outfield ... There isn't is a huge difference between the Cardinal and Tar Heels in this category, but Stanford does have some holes. For instance, third baseman Stephen Piscotty has a bad .910 fielding percentage and shortstop Kenny Diekroeger's .941 fielding percentage is far inferior to what Michael has accomplished this season. The outfield is the one area I really like about this Stanford club. Tyler Gaffney and Austin Wilson at the corners gives the Cardinal a pair of great athletes that can cover a lot of ground out there.
Intangibles

It's always tough to judge the intangibles department, but we're giving a slight edge to North Carolina. Though the Tar Heels only reached an NCAA Regional last season, several players off this team were part of teams that reached the College World Series. Stanford also has a couple of players with the same situation, particularly No 3 starter Danny Sandbrink. Outside of having a bit more experience in this situation, the Tar Heels are at home this weekend, where they're an amazing 34-3 this season. Stanford is playing an impressive brand of baseball, but once again will have to elevate its level of play to grab a road series victory this weekend. The more we look at it, the more we think this series will come down to the finale. We wouldn't want it any other way.


Kendall Rogers is the college baseball editor for Perfect Game USA and has covered the sport for over 10 seasons. He can be reached at kendall@perfectgame.org
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