College : : Story
Wednesday, May 04, 2011

PG 64: Projecting the NCAA field

Kendall Rogers        

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HAVE PROJECTIONS QUESTIONS? Ask Kendall Rogers

PREMIUM: Weekly bubble breakdown

PREMIUM ANALYSIS:
Inside the postseason projections

It has taken a while to accomplish, but after sweeping Auburn at home last weekend, South Carolina finally has a postseason resume that narrowly edges out a fabulous Virginia club.

The Gamecocks have a fantastic resume. They have an RPI of 4 with an 11-4 mark vs. RPI Top 25, 13-5 vs. RPI Top 25 and 22-6 vs. RPI Top 100. It's also worth noting the Gamecocks are in a three-way tie with Florida and Vanderbilt for the SEC lead, and have the head-to-head advantage against both.

Other national seeds this week include (in order), Virginia, Vanderbilt, Florida, Texas, Oregon State, Arizona State and Georgia Tech. Other teams considered for national seeds include North Carolina, Florida State and to a lesser extent Texas A&M and Southern Mississippi.

Virginia has an RPI of 3 with an 8-2 mark vs. RPI Top 25, 13-4 vs. RPI Top 50 and 24-5 vs. RPI Top 100, Vanderbilt has an RPI of 2 with an 11-4 mark vs. RPI Top 25, 16-5 vs. RPI Top 50 and 22-4 vs. RPI Top 100, Florida has an RPI of 1 with a 10-6 mark vs. RPI Top 25, 19-9 mark vs. RPI Top 50 and 32-10 vs. RPI Top 100, Texas has an RPI of 11 and is 5-4 vs. RPI Top 25, 14-6 vs. RPI Top 50 and 22-9 vs. RPI Top 100, Oregon State has an RPI of 14 and is 6-2 vs. RPI Top 25, 12-5 vs. RPI Top 50 and 19-6 vs. RPI Top 100, Arizona State has an RPI of 6 and is 7-6 vs. RPI Top 25, 17-7 vs. RPI Top 50 and 18-9 vs. RPI Top 100 and Georgia Tech has an RPI of 8 and is 7-5 vs. RPI Top 25, 13-6 vs. RPI Top 50 and 26-13 vs. RPI Top 100.

In addition to the national seeds, other NCAA Regional hosts include North Carolina, Florida State, Stetson, Southern Mississippi, Texas A&M, Fresno State, Cal State Fullerton and Rice. Other programs considered for host sites include TCU, Clemson, Miami, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Arkansas.

PG's NCAA postseason projections are released every Wednesday leading up to Selection Monday, which is Monday, May 30.

COLUMBIA REGIONAL
Host: South Carolina
1. South Carolina* (1)
4. Valparaiso*
2. N.C. State
3. Coastal Carolina*
HATTIESBURG REGIONAL
Host: Southern Mississippi
1. Southern Miss*
4. Alcorn State*
2. Arkansas
3. SE Louisiana
C'VILLE REGIONAL
Host: Virginia
1. Virginia* (2)
4. Long Island*
2. Alabama
3. Kent State*
COLLEGE STATION REGIONAL
Host: Texas A&M
1. Texas A&M
4. Stony Brook*

2. Arizona
3. La.-Lafayette
NASHVILLE REGIONAL
Host: Vanderbilt
1. Vanderbilt (3)
4. Austin Peay*
2. Clemson
3. UAB
CHAPEL HILL REGIONAL
Host: North Carolina
1. North Carolina
4. Charlotte*
2. East Carolina
3. Elon*
GAINESVILLE REGIONAL
Host: Florida
1. Florida (4)
4. Dartmouth*
2. Oklahoma
3. Jacksonville
DeLAND REGIONAL
Host: Stetson
1. Stetson*
4. Bethune-Cookman*
2. Miami
3. Central Florida
  AUSTIN REGIONAL
Host: Texas
1. Texas* (5)
4. Navy*
2. Texas State
3. Creighton*
HOUSTON REGIONAL
Host: Rice
1. Rice
4. Stephen F. Austin*
2. TCU*
3. Baylor
CORVALLIS REGIONAL
Host: Oregon State
1. Oregon State* (6)
4. South Dakota St.*
2. Oklahoma St.
3. Connecticut*
FRESNO REGIONAL
Host: Fresno State
1. Fresno State
4. San Francisco*
2. California
3. Kansas State
TEMPE REGIONAL
Host: Arizona State
1. Arizona State (7)
4. Delaware*
2. Georgia
3. UC Irvine
TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL
Host: Florida State
1. Florida State
4. Purdue*
2. Troy*
3. Mississippi State
ATLANTA REGIONAL
Host: Georgia Tech
1. Georgia Tech (8)
4. Manhattan*
2. Stanford
3. Auburn
FULLERTON REGIONAL
Host: Cal State Fullerton
1. Cal St. Fullerton*
4. Hawaii*
2. UCLA
3. Fla. International
Last six: Jacksonville, Kansas State, Central Florida, Louisiana-Lafayette, Mississippi State, UAB
Next 10: LSU, Tulane, Mississippi, Florida Atlantic, Dallas Baptist, Cal State Bakersfield, St. John's, Gonzaga, College of Charleston, Texas Tech

Projected national seeds in parentheses.
*—Projected winner of an automatic bid.
Possible super regional matchups are listed side-by-side
Stony Brook Charlotte
Virginia Stetson
Connecticut Coastal Carolina
Purdue Texas
Cal State Fullerton
Delaware
Southern Mississippi Valparaiso
Dartmouth
Manhattan
Kent State Bethune-Cookman
Creighton TCU
Long Island
Austin Peay
Oregon State Navy
South Carolina Elon
Stephen F. Austin South Dakota State
Troy Alcorn State
Hawaii
San Francisco
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