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Draft  | Follow List | 6/1/2010

MISSOURI

2010 FOLLOW LIST
 
COMPILED by DAVID RAWNSLEY
 
STATE OVERVIEW
It wasn’t a streak that a state such as California or Texas would pay much attention to, but for a mid-level talent-producing state like Missouri, it was a noteworthy achievement.
 
From 2006-09, a college pitcher from the Show-Me State was drafted in the first round, starting with Missouri righthander Max Scherzer (Arizona Diamondbacks) in 2006, Missouri State lefthander Ross Detwiler (Washington Nationals) in 2007, Missouri righthander Aaron Crow (Nationals) in 2008 and Missouri righthander Kyle Gibson (Minnesota Twins) a year ago.
 
That streak will almost certainly end with last year’s draft.
 
The state’s two top college hurlers in the 2010 class are sophomore-eligible lefthander Mike Kickham of Missouri State and junior righthander Nick Tepesch of Missouri. Both project as second/third-round selections, although with the uncertain nature of this year’s draft, anything could happen.
 
The 6-foot-4, 200-pound Kickham and 6-5, 225-pound Tepesch clearly have the physical profiles to go in the first round, and both have flashed top-round raw stuff, at times. But neither has the polish or track record to be considered a legitimate first-round talent.
 
The 2010 records of the two pitchers point to their up-and-down seasons. Kickham went just 4-9, 5.25 for Missouri State, while Tepesch was moderately better at 6-6, 4.20. Both gave up more than a hit per inning.
 
The two pitchers have taken very different paths to arrive at approximately the same prospect status.
 
Kickham spent his freshman year at Missouri’s Crowder CC, where his fastball topped out in the mid-80s last spring. He came on quickly during the summer, though, adding 5-7 mph to his fastball, and subsequently enrolled at Missouri State only two days before classes started.
 
Tepesch was a highly regarded prospect out of a Missouri high school, with a fastball that would touch 95 mph, even as an 18-year-old. When he passed up a 28th-round offer in 2007 from the Boston Red Sox in favor of attending college at Missouri, he was considered a logical bet to continue Missouri’s first-round streak. But Tepesch’s career with the Tigers has been plagued by inconsistent stuff and less-than-stellar performances.
 
Interestingly, Kickham’s twin brother Dan, a righthander at Crowder College, is one of the state’s better junior-college prospects. Had Mike elected to stay at Crowder for his sophomore year, instead of transferring at the last minute, he and Dan would have formed an intriguing pitching tandem for a team that still advanced to the Junior College World Series.
 
Like his brother, Dan Kickham is also a hard thrower with an 88-92 mph fastball, but the lefthanded/righthanded gene factor fell in his brother’s favor. Mike also has the more projectable frame of the two, and a better arm action.
 
Kickham (Mike) and Tepesch, along with Missouri State lefthander Aaron Meade, the state’s third-ranking college talent, are all products of Missouri high schools, which have produced a steady stream of talent for the draft in recent years. In the six-year period from 2004-09, a total of 156 players were drafted that at one time or another attended Missouri high schools. That totals places the state 17th nationally.
 
It isn’t just quantity that is coming out of Missouri’s high-school ranks, either. In each of the last two drafts, the state has produced two of the best prep arms in the entire draft, in Holt High righthander Tim Melville in 2008 and Westminster Christian Academy righthander Jacob Turner in 2009.
 
Turner was awarded a state record $4.7 million signing bonus by the Detroit Tigers as the ninth overall pick, and while Melville slid to the fourth round a year earlier because of significant signability concerns, he was nonetheless paid like a first-rounder by being handed a $1.25 million signing bonus by the Kansas City Royals.
 
The state’s top high-school prospect this year, South Harrison High lefthander Jordan Shipers, won’t come close to the first round or even be paid like one, yet he has taken his own circuitous path to draft prominence.
 
Shipers’ high school, which is located in northern Missouri, close to the Iowa border, doesn’t have a baseball program, so Shipers’ exposure to scouts this spring has consisted of driving on weekends to various Iowa communities to pitch in Perfect Game’s Iowa Spring Wood Bat League, which exists, ostensibly, to provide spring-time competition for Iowa high schools, which don’t play baseball for most of the spring.
 
The lack of a true team environment has probably hurt Shipers’ development as a prospect. Scouts have noted that his signature performance as a pitching prospect came last October in Jupiter, Fla., at the heavily scouted World Wood Bat Association fall championship, where the slender southpaw was part of a real team playing in a highly charged competitive setting. Shipers threw five no-hit innings in his signature start, striking out 13, with a 90-93 mph fastball and an 84-mph slider. He hasn’t matched that kind of raw stuff since.
 
Much like last year, when Turner was the only drafted Missouri high school player to sign professionally, it’s possible that scenario will repeat itself as Shipers, a Missouri State recruit, is the only prep prospect in the state who has been extensively cross-checked this spring. Six-foot-3, 230-pound Boonville High outfielder Chuckie Jones has the build and tools package to warrant top-10 round attention, but still has a ways to go with his bat.
 
While Missouri and Missouri State are the state’s marquee college programs and have dominated draft proceedings in recent tears, neither school even advanced to the NCAA regional field of 64 teams this season. Upstart St. Louis University did, by winning the Atlantic-10 Conference tournament (with a 33-27 record overall), while Central Missouri (50-12) represented the state at the Division II World Series. Neither of those schools should impact the draft in a notable way.
 
IN A NUTSHELL
STRENGTH: College pitching, some power bats.
WEAKNESS: High-school talent, middle-of-the-field athletes.
OVERALL RATING (1-to-5 scale): 2.
 
BEST COLLEGE TEAM: Central Missouri.
BEST JUNIOR-COLLEGE TEAM: Crowder.
BEST HIGH-SCHOOL TEAM: Rock Bridge HS.
 
PROSPECT ON THE RISE: Mike Kickham, lhp, Missouri State. His 4-9, 5.25 record is deceiving; Kickham has continued to improve all spring and has two potential plus pitches.
PROSPECT ON THE DECLINE:Jordan Shipers, lhp, South Harrison HS, Bethany. With the lack of a high-school team, his fastball and slider have regressed since last year, yet he may blossom in a more structured team-based environment.
WILD CARD: Aaron Senne, 1b-of, Missouri. A former top prospect, he has re-emerged after horrible 2009 season, and could be a very high senior sign pick for a budget-conscious club.
 
BEST OUT-OF-STATE PROSPECT, Missouri Connection: Johnny Coy, 1b-3b, Wichita State U. (Attended high school in St. Joseph).
TOP 2011 PROSPECT: David Schmidt, rhp, Christian Brothers Academy, St. Louis.
TOP 2012 PROSPECT: Eric Anderson, rhp, U. of Missouri.
 
HIGHEST DRAFT PICKS
Draft History: Roy Branch, rhp, Beaumont HS, St. Louis (1971, Royals/1st round, 5th pick).
2006 Draft: Max Scherzer, rhp, U. of Missouri (Diamondbacks/1st round; 11th pick).
2007 Draft: Ross Detwiler, lhp, Missouri State U. (Nationals/1st round, 6th pick).
2008 Draft: Aaron Crow, rhp, U. of Missouri (Nationals/1st round, 9th pick).
2009 Draft: Jacob Turner, rhp, Westminster Christian Academy, St. Louis (Tigers/1st round, 9th pick).
 
BEST TOOLS
Best Hitter: Aaron Senne, 1b-of, Missouri.
Best Power: Aaron Senne, 1b-of, Missouri.
Best Speed: Aaron Conway, of, Missouri State.
Best Defender: Jim Klocke, c, Southeast Missouri State.
Best Velocity: Nick Tepesch, rhp, Missouri.
Best Breaking Stuff: Mike Kickham, lhp, Missouri State.
 
TOP PROSPECTS
Full scouting reports available on players ranked on national Top 250 list (click on National Top 250)
 
GROUP ONE(Projected ELITE-Round Draft / Rounds 1-3)
1. MIKE KICKHAM, lhp, Missouri State (So.)                                               National Top 250 (Rank 81)
Made huge jump in last year, 90-93 mph southpaw, sharp slider, improving command, quick/loose arm

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