With the completion of the 2008 regular season, the raw draft order for next year’s draft has been set. The Tampa Bay Rays of course will not be picking first overall, as years and years drafting at the very top has allowed them to accumulate much of the talent they have that helped propel them to the third best record in all of baseball.
The dubious honor of selecting first overall goes to the Washington Nationals, who will actually have two selections among the top 10 overall picks since they were unable to sign Aaron Crow, the ninth overall selection last June.
Here is how the draft order stacks up (tie-breakers are awarded to the team that had the worse record the previous year):
1. Nationals (.366)
2. Mariners (.377)
3. Padres (.389)
4. Pirates (.414)
5. Orioles (.422)
6. Giants (.444)
7. Braves (.444)
8. Reds (.457)
9. Tigers (.457)
9a. Nationals (compensation pick, Aaron Crow)
10. Rockies (.457)
11. Royals (.463)
12. Athletics (.466)
13. Rangers (.488)
14. Indians (.500)
15. Diamondbacks (.506)
16. Dodgers (.519)
17. Marlins (.522)
18. Cardinals (.531)
19. Blue Jays (.531)
20. Astros (.534)
21. Twins (.540)
22. White Sox (.546)
23. Mets (.549)
24. Yankees (.549)
25. Brewers (.556)
26. Phillies (.568)
27. Red Sox (.586)
28. Rays (.599)
28a. Yankees (compensation pick, Gerrit Cole)
29. Cubs (.602)
30. Angels (.617)
As noted above in the draft order, the Yankees also will be awarded a compensation pick due to their inability to sign their 2008 first-rounder, Gerrit Cole, as next year the first round will actually be 32 picks deep.
And it could go 33 deep, as the Mariners also have not signed their first-round pick, Joshua Fields, the 20th overall selection this past year, but they still have time to do so given the special provision allowing teams to hold signing rights over unsigned college seniors. It doesn’t seem likely that Fields could actually improve his draft stock by playing Indy ball next spring, as many expect him to eventually sign with the Mariners, but as a client of the ever creative Scott Boras, you never know what they may have in mind.
Desperately in need for impact talent at the big-league level, I’m sure the Nationals welcome the opportunity to pick first overall. They have put a greater emphasis on player development the past few seasons, although I’m sure they wanted to make a better impression on their fans during the first season in a new ballpark.
I want to point out that it is no sure thing that they select the player that almost everyone agrees is the top talent available for the 2009 draft: Stephen Strasburg. As noted above, they were unable to sign Aaron Crow this past year with the ninth overall pick, and the price tag for Strasburg climbs everyday as his legend grows.
Of course as soon as you throw out the name Scott Boras you know a player and his advisor are going to do everything in their power to maximize that player’s financial value. And Strasburg isn’t the only player who reportedly has already made the alliance with the one agent that has the greatest impact on the game of baseball and possibly in all of sports, with reports that Andrew Oliver, Grant Green and Dustin Ackley have all done the same.
And then of course you have Aaron Crow and possibly Joshua Fields if he doesn’t eventually sign with the Mariners, both of whom are in the same boat.
Aside from the representation, having a team pass on a player or a grouping of players that most consider the favorites to go first overall wouldn’t be a new idea. The Padres in 2004 (Matt Bush) and the Pirates in 2002 (Bryan Bullington) both were criticized for reaching for players (although Bullington wasn’t really that big of a reach at the time) based on financial ramifications, and since neither one of those players have panned out while players such as Justin Verlander and B.J. Upton have, it reinforces my recurring point that it is ok to make a somewhat controversial pick as long as you are able to silence your critics in the long run by making the right selection.
This notion isn’t exclusive to the Nationals with the first overall pick. The Mariners have always approached their draft picks in a more unique fashion than most teams, the Padres have been accused by being cheap when it comes to the draft in the past, and I’m sure the Pirates will think twice before entering another situation like the one that Pedro Alvarez presented them.
But if the teams don’t sign the best players they are doomed to repeat their recent history. Teams like the Nationals, Padres, Pirates, Orioles and Royals have placed a greater emphasis on player development in recent years, and all of those teams have made some big investments in the draft the past year or more. In addition to their draft efforts, the Padres have also increased their investments on the international free agent market.
Those efforts need to continue, as the Pirates, Orioles and Giants have been selecting among the top 10 overall picks since 2005. The Royals slipped out of the top 10 for the first time in 2003, and they like teams such as the Rays, Twins and Brewers may be on the right track building their system from the bottom up with bigger and better things to come in the future.
A few other draft-related notes:
• Seven teams, including four in the National League, finished with a better record than the Dodgers but failed to make the playoffs.
• Because of the make-up game last Monday to the White Sox due to the playoff implications in the American League Central, the Detroit Tigers jumped two spots in the raw draft order by finishing tied with the Rockies (and Reds). Since the Rockies had a better record a year ago, the Tigers were given the better overall pick, and since the Nationals will receive a compensatory selection for not signing Aaron Crow right after the ninth overall pick, it caused the two-spot flip-flop for the Rockies and Tigers.
• Speaking of the Tigers, just to give their fans some reason for optimism moving forward, it’s important to remember that the Chicago White Sox had the eighth overall pick last June less than two years removed from their World Series championship, and with that brief hiccup they are back in the playoffs this year.
• The Braves impressive era definitely came to an end during the 2008 season, although they do continue to stockpile young talent as it’s hard to imagine them being out of playoff consideration for very long. The seventh overall pick next June will be their highest selection in the draft since 1991 when they selected Mike Kelly second overall.
• 17 teams this year finished with a .500 record or better, the best total since 2003 when 18 teams avoided a losing record.
The Talent
Of course the talent is what always creates the interest in the draft and determines whether or not a certain draft is perceived to be strong or not. The early impressions on the 2009 crop indicate that pitching should dominate the early picks, particularly the from the college level, especially given the situations of Crow, Fields and Tanner Scheppers, who like Crow will be playing for an Independent league team next spring.
Overall most seem to think the talent is down, largely because there isn’t that one positional player on either the college or prep side that appears to be as close to a can’t-miss prospect as you can find from the amateur ranks. Meaning there is no Eric Hosmer, Delmon Young or Justin Upton at the high school level much less a Pedro Alvarez, Alex Gordon or Mark Teixeira from the college ranks.
In addition to the pitching depth, the catching depth is encouraging, and there does appear to be some prep hitters that could be emerging as legitimate first-round candidates such as Matt Davidson and Bobby Borchering. Two-sport star Donovan Tate could be in the mix for the top of the draft should he choose to focus on baseball, while two-way stars such as Mychal Givens and Austin Maddox, and even Blake Davis from the college level, offer a few wild-cards should they progress more as hitters than as pitchers between now and next June.
As always, there are plenty of fascinating storylines to follow, so be sure to check back during the offseason for more and more information pertaining to the talent available for the 2009 draft.
The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.