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General  | Crack The Bat | 5/22/2008

Posey's Ascent

Leading up to last year’s draft, I covered the amazing consistency of former Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters’ offensive production during his three years in college as he prepared himself to be taken fifth overall by the Baltimore Orioles.

This year another college catcher is poised to be taken extremely early in this year’s draft, as Florida State’s Buster Posey is a candidate to go first overall to the Tampa Bay Rays.

Like Wieters, Posey wasted no time making a strong impression in college, hitting .346 during his freshman year playing shortstop everyday. Also like Wieters, Posey has added value to his team for the fact that he also has doubled as a closer, and while he has been used very sparingly in that role this year, he has yet to give up an earned run while posting six saves in eight appearances.

And while many believed Posey could be drafted as a pitcher out of high school given his heat and refined changeup, his future clearly lies as a positional player.

While Posey’s first two years in college were incredibly consistent, getting slightly better from his freshman year to his sophomore despite making the switch from shortstop to catcher, he has exploded during his junior year, finding his power stroke that has allowed to be considered not only a candidate for the Golden Spikes award, but also to be considered a true one/one when it comes to the draft.

Let’s take a peak at his statistical production:

2006: .346/.433/.467*, 246 at-bats, 14 doubles, 4 home runs, 48 RBI
2007: .382/.453/.520*, 246 at-bats, 21 doubles, 3 home runs, 65 RBI
2008: .471/.571/.858*, 197 at-bats, 20 doubles, 17 home runs, 68 RBI

*(Batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage)

While you have to take his statistical production with a grain of salt, since you never know how those numbers are going to translate upon reaching professional baseball, it does help paint a picture of his future ability given the glowing scouting reports that complement his raw numbers.

And just to show what he’s done with a wood bat during two summers played on the Cape Cod League, here’s another look at his consistency:

2006: .289/.345/.377, 159 at-bats, 8 doubles, 2 home runs
2007: .281/.361/.375, 128 at-bats, 3 doubles, 3 home runs

In addition to his ability at the plate, he has improved considerably behind the plate, as his quickness and strong arm have allowed him to stand out this spring. He has thrown out 41% of opposing basestealers, and while he has committed seven errors this year, five of those came during the first few weeks of the season.

Since he was recently named the ACC player of the year, by now Posey’s resume is getting pretty deep. Before even stepping onto Florida State’s campus, he participated in the Aflac All-American Classic during the summer of 2004, and also was a member of the Team USA Junior National team that same summer. He was named the Gatorade player of the year for the state of Georgia after his senior year in high school, and has carried high academic marks throughout.

What is Posey’s ceiling? I and others have debated whether or not Posey is truly worthy of going first overall in the draft, since his power is still somewhat limited and it remains to be seen if he is a true, perennial All-Star type player as a catcher. But finding catchers that can hit is no easy task, and that alone may make him worthy of the first overall selection.

Regardless if he goes first overall or within the top three to five picks, Posey’s consistent improvement in college and breakout junior campaign lead many to believe that Posey will continue that success on the next level.

Who’s Next?
Since there are quite a few similarities between Matt Wieters last year and Buster Posey this year, the next question is “who’s next?”

USC’s Robert Stock definitely fits the profile, even if his college career started unlike most people having attended college a year earlier than expected. He too profiles as both a catcher and as a closer, with a powerful bat to match his powerful arm, and was an Aflac All-American the summer before he attended college.

After struggling his freshman year in college, Stock is having a much stronger sophomore year, currently hitting .307 for the Trojans, a 52 point jump from last year. His power hasn’t emerged to this point in time, but there is still plenty to project in his left-handed swing, and he has already shown the ability to control the strike zone, walking 22 times and striking just 12 times over 166 at-bats this spring.

He has appeared in 11 games this year in relief, striking out 17 batters over 10 innings of work while posting three saves, and he has thrown out 37% of opposing baserunners from behind the dish.

The talent is there for Stock to enjoy a similar jump next year as Posey has this spring, and could make it three years in a row in which a college catcher was a legitimate candidate to go among the top three to five overall selections.

Golden Spikes
While Posey currently leads the nation in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, he has some heavy company for player of the year honors.

Gordon Beckham has cooled quite a bit in recent weeks as he has been pitched around more than any player in college baseball, but is still posting big numbers. Brett Wallace and Yonder Alonso has been extremely hot in recent weeks, and even Eric Thames and Nate Recknagel are posting numbers worthy of consideration.

Top pitching prospect Brian Matusz and Aaron Crow are also putting up big numbers, although Crow has been knocked around more recently despite still boasting a 12-0 record. Scott Bittle has been nearly untouchable pitching out of the bullpen for Ole Miss, while UC Irvine’s Scott Gorgen has been carving up batters all year long.

But it may be a sophomore that earns the Golden Spikes honors this year.

San Diego State right-handed pitcher Stephen Strasburg is putting up incredible numbers, the spring after he was named the New England Collegiate League’s top prospect and put himself in a position to be considered among the top three to five overall selections in the 2009 draft.

This year he is 8-2 leading the nation in strikeouts (128) and is third in ERA (1.59). He is sixth in the nation in batting average against (.178), has two shutouts on the year, one of those being his dominant, 23-strikeout performance vs. Utah, and has allowed only 13 walks and one home run all season long.

Strasburg’s win-loss record may be the only thing that keeps him from winning the award, as his success may be negated by Crow’s 12-0 mark, cross-town rival Brian Matusz’ 10-2 mark (and almost equally impressive overall numbers) as well as some of the “Nintendo” like numbers being put up by Posey and company.

If nothing else, Strasburg has cemented his status as one of the top prospects for next year’s draft, and may be the favorite to win the Golden Spikes should he not be awarded the illustrious hardware this year.

The thoughts and opinions listed here do not necessarily reflect those of Perfect Game USA. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.


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